ufc on fx 8: belfort vs rockhold (5.18.13)

[PunisherIND]

Location: Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil
Venue: Arena Jaragua
Broadcast: FX, FUEL TV, Facebook

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)

• Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold
• Constantinos Philippou vs. Ronaldo Souza
• Chris Camozzi vs. Rafael Natal
• Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 6 p.m. ET)

• Hacran Dias vs. Nik Lentz
• Mike Rio vs. Francisco Trinaldo
• Yuri Alcantara vs. Iliarde Santos
• Michel Richard dos Prazeres vs. Paulo Thiago*
• Azamat Gashimov vs. John Lineker
• Roger Hollett vs. Fabio Maldonado

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 4:30 p.m. ET)

• John Cholish vs. Gleison Tibau
• Chris Cariaso vs. Jussier Formiga
• Jeremy Larsen vs. Lucas Martins

[Crassus]

Rockhold at -109 that sounds like a 4 or 5 unit bet to me!

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Off the top of my head my picks are the following: Martins, Cariaso, Tibau, Maldonado, Gashimov, Thiago, Alcantara, Trinaldo, Diaz, Dos Anjos, Camozzi, Souza, Belfort.

[getlucky2win]

vitor goin2 be roided up again

[Grabaka]

Rockhold at -109 that sounds like a 4 or 5 unit bet to me!

Si señor!

[Dwil125]

rockhold straight, with vitor kotn or itd? I'm curious to see what the line on fabio/hollet also..

[The iron sheik]

Belfort straight up for me, might also play some Jacare prop if there's anything good

[bogbat]

I'm surprised Paulo Thiago hasn't been cut, losing 4 out of his last 5 fights.

[Sacrelicious]

Waiting to see if Vitor is ungodly jacked up at weigh ins before I bet....

[gabe]

rockholdeeznuts

[Vaughany]

I'm surprised Paulo Thiago hasn't been cut, losing 4 out of his last 5 fights.

they cant cut a member of BOPE

[The iron sheik]

What are the odds off Rogan ranting about Thiago and how this is like a day off for him from shooting drug lords and shit like that?
-900?

[Dwil125]

any leans on cariaso/formiga?

[gabe]

What are the odds off Rogan ranting about Thiago and how this is like a day off for him from shooting drug lords and shit like that?
-900?

lmfao

man, i can't wait for this card.

[eligibletackle]

i must've missed something when watching rockhold fight. outside of matches vs the top 2 p4p guys, vitor has looked nothing short of indestructible. dog odds and in brazil? vs a guy who barely won a striking exchange vs Jacare? what i'll give to rockhold is that i'll never count out AKA fighters on improving when not fighting on the reg (cain's layoff between nog and brock, thompson's flat performance vs Gil 2 & healy to gil 3 & nate, cormier, etc).it's been an elite crew that have shut down vitor since his return to the UFC, i don't see rockhold in that group. a bisping-esque striking performance where LR takes rds 3-5 seems like his best way to win, no? i must be missing something - better watch tape

[MD]

i must've missed something when watching rockhold fight. outside of matches vs the top 2 p4p guys, vitor has looked nothing short of indestructible. dog odds and in brazil? vs a guy who barely won a striking exchange vs Jacare? what i'll give to rockhold is that i'll never count out AKA fighters on improving when not fighting on the reg (cain's layoff between nog and brock, thompson's flat performance vs Gil 2 & healy to gil 3 & nate, cormier, etc).it's been an elite crew that have shut down vitor since his return to the UFC, i don't see rockhold in that group. a bisping-esque striking performance where LR takes rds 3-5 seems like his best way to win, no? i must be missing something - better watch tape

MMA has largely passed Vitor by, and his style simply isn't good enough any more. Yes, he knocked out Bisping, but his only way to win that fight was an early knockout, and that will likely be the trend in his fights for the rest of his career. He's an average or poor boxer with good BJJ who stands upright and swings hooks until he gets a KO. It can work against a guy as hittable as Rockhold, but Rockhold simply has too many ways to win this fight. Bisping could only really lose in the first two rounds, losing a decision was out of the question for him. The same applies to Rockhold.

[The iron sheik]

Belfort arguably took round one from Bisping in a fight that ended in round two, so I don't really see why you think it's so improbable that Belfort would win a decision. Not like he has gas issues that big.

edit: perhaps a five round fight like Rockhold-Belfort is, but I think it's absolutely ridiculous to imply Belfort has to KO someone in a three round fight to win, like Bisping

[Rubber Guard]

I'm not saying Vitor clearly wins. And I have been semi-impressed with Rockhold. He knows how to accumulate strikes, has good cardio, has a good ground game. But he hasn't beat anyone like Vitor. He has one relevant win in his career vs. Jacre in a close fight. Vitor on the other hand gave Bones trouble from bottom, head kick KO'd Bisping. Basically has ran through everyone in the last 6 years besides Bones and Anderson. I don't see how Rockhold as the favorite is a good bet? He has 1 good win. He has almost been on the shelf a year. His UFC debut. This is in Brazil. What does he have going for him? His only way of winning really is out-striking a dangerous opponent for 5 rounds using a variety of strikes. I see no value in that as the favorite.

[mirinquads]

Bisping was fighting scared that fight, and let Vitor time him, which was predictable as Bisping always needs a warmup round, and Vitor comes out hot every fight except against the GOAT. That fight was easy money. Though Im not sure I want to lay money against a juiced up dinosaur like Vitor.

Thoughts on Jacare vs Philippou? I feel like Jacare is going to completely truck him, Philippou's take down defense is overrated as penetrate, Botech was pushing him up against the cage and taking him down at will, before all the hand breaking, headbutting and nut kicking, he was loosing that handily. The much more athletic and techincally superior Jacare should be able to do that with ease and get the sub. I think he could even beat him in the standup with the takedown threat, but I gotta watch some tape on that.

[MD]

Belfort arguably took round one from Bisping in a fight that ended in round two, so I don't really see why you think it's so improbable that Belfort would win a decision. Not like he has gas issues that big.

edit: perhaps a five round fight like Rockhold-Belfort is, but I think it's absolutely ridiculous to imply Belfort has to KO someone in a three round fight to win, like Bisping

Bisping/Belfort was a five-round fight dude.

[MD]

I'm not saying Vitor clearly wins. And I have been semi-impressed with Rockhold. He knows how to accumulate strikes, has good cardio, has a good ground game. But he hasn't beat anyone like Vitor. He has one relevant win in his career vs. Jacre in a close fight. Vitor on the other hand gave Bones trouble from bottom, head kick KO'd Bisping. Basically has ran through everyone in the last 6 years besides Bones and Anderson. I don't see how Rockhold as the favorite is a good bet? He has 1 good win. He has almost been on the shelf a year. His UFC debut. This is in Brazil. What does he have going for him? His only way of winning really is out-striking a dangerous opponent for 5 rounds using a variety of strikes. I see no value in that as the favorite.

I thought Tim Kennedy was an outstanding win to be honest. I'd favour Kennedy over Belfort, he's a superb fighter.

[The iron sheik]

Bisping/Belfort was a five-round fight dude.

Regardless, the point still stands. I can understand the appeal in betting Rockhold and all, but essentially you're saying a fighter who hasn't lost a round to anyone named Jones in what, 7 years (?) can't win a decision. It's ridiculous.

I wonder which is it, I wonder are you making an argument Belfort needs the KO to win because he isn't winning rounds, or is it that he needs a KO because he doesn't have the cardio to go 5 rounds. Whichever it is, it's pretty unfounded.

[Rubber Guard]

I thought Tim Kennedy was an outstanding win to be honest. I'd favour Kennedy over Belfort, he's a superb fighter.

Tim has heart and some cardio. He is a tough SOB. But he brings very limited skills. He isn't that good in any one area. He went all 5 because he is tough and Rockhold isn't exactly a finisher (yes he has a lot of finishes vs. lower level guys). But other than staying in there he has very little to offer. I expect Roger Gracie to beat him with a jab and BJJ style TDs. Kennedy I guess is a wrestler.. A very average smart wrestler. I guess I shouldn't say Rockhold has 1 relevant win; Tim is relevant. But in my opinion he won't be anything more than a 15-20th best MW in the UFC. Tim has little to no ways of beating a guy like Rockhold. Vitor has a decent base, BJJ, and at least hands and speed to hurt Rockhold in an exchange.

[MD]

Regardless, the point still stands. I can understand the appeal in betting Rockhold and all, but essentially you're saying a fighter who hasn't lost a round to anyone named Jones in what, 7 years (?) can't win a decision. It's ridiculous.

I wonder which is it, I wonder are you making an argument Belfort needs the KO to win because he isn't winning rounds, or is it that he needs a KO because he doesn't have the cardio to go 5 rounds. Whichever it is, it's pretty unfounded.

Vitor is notorious for wilting. There are some valid arguments for Vitor winning, but claiming it's unfounded to say he doesn't have the cardio to go five rounds is silly, considering he gassed horribly and basically quit against Jones when he went over three rounds.

That's something people seem to say a lot; Belfort hasn't lost to anyone except Anderson and Jones since coming back to the UFC. Who has he beaten? Past-his-prime Franklin and Michael Bisping. Rockhold's recent wins are better than Belfort's recent wins.

It's a horrible stylistic match-up for Belfort, I really don't see why the line is so close. Belfort can get the KO because Rockhold is hittable and his chin isn't the best, but I 'cap Rockhold at around -265 here.

[MD]

Tim has heart and some cardio. He is a tough SOB. But he brings very limited skills. He isn't that good in any one area. He went all 5 because he is tough and Rockhold isn't exactly a finisher (yes he has a lot of finishes vs. lower level guys). But other than staying in there he has very little to offer. I expect Roger Gracie to beat him with a jab and BJJ style TDs. Kennedy I guess is a wrestler.. A very average smart wrestler. I guess I shouldn't say Rockhold has 1 relevant win; Tim is relevant. But in my opinion he won't be anything more than a 15-20th best MW in the UFC. Tim has little to no ways of beating a guy like Rockhold. Vitor has a decent base, BJJ, and at least hands and speed to hurt Rockhold in an exchange.

I dunno man, gonna have to disagree with you heavily here. I'd consider Kennedy to be a better striker than Belfort, considering his boxing is almost as good and he also has kicks, and his wrestling is very good. A bit undersized for the division, but I think only the elite will beat him convincingly. He can give a lot of problems to a lot of top ten guys.

[Rubber Guard]

Vitor is notorious for wilting. There are some valid arguments for Vitor winning, but claiming it's unfounded to say he doesn't have the cardio to go five rounds is silly, considering he gassed horribly and basically quit against Jones when he went over three rounds.

That's something people seem to say a lot; Belfort hasn't lost to anyone except Anderson and Jones since coming back to the UFC. Who has he beaten? Past-his-prime Franklin and Michael Bisping. Rockhold's recent wins are better than Belfort's recent wins.

It's a horrible stylistic match-up for Belfort, I really don't see why the line is so close. Belfort can get the KO because Rockhold is hittable and his chin isn't the best, but I 'cap Rockhold at around -265 here.

Not saying Vitor has cardio. But 3 rounds with Bones, the biggest LHW on top of you, defending elbows and everything else....is a tad different than striking with Rockhold. Vitor doesn't have 5 good rounds in him. But I think he has 3. I do think he should have stayed at 205 at this point of his career though.

[The iron sheik]

I'd hardly call losing three rounds to a clearly better opponent and losing by submission in the fourth as "wilting". Besides that, I guess you have to go to the orient to find examples of that happening.

MMA math isn't very wise, but when it comes to valuing people for the opposition they've beaten, Bisping certainly has more value than Tim Kennedy. Jacare is an excellent trophy, I'll give you that.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Off the top of my head my picks are the following: Martins, Cariaso, Tibau, Maldonado, Gashimov, Thiago, Alcantara, Trinaldo, Diaz, Dos Anjos, Camozzi, Souza, Belfort.

Change Diaz to Lentz.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

MMA has largely passed Vitor by, and his style simply isn't good enough any more. Yes, he knocked out Bisping, but his only way to win that fight was an early knockout, and that will likely be the trend in his fights for the rest of his career. He's an average or poor boxer with good BJJ who stands upright and swings hooks until he gets a KO. It can work against a guy as hittable as Rockhold, but Rockhold simply has too many ways to win this fight. Bisping could only really lose in the first two rounds, losing a decision was out of the question for him. The same applies to Rockhold.

Vitor on TRT and in Brazil = I'm not touching this fight with a 10 ft. pole. I'm sitting this one out.

[MD]

I'd hardly call losing three rounds to a clearly better opponent and losing by submission in the fourth as "wilting". Besides that, I guess you have to go to the orient to find examples of that happening.

MMA math isn't very wise, but when it comes to valuing people for the opposition they've beaten, Bisping certainly has more value than Tim Kennedy. Jacare is an excellent trophy, I'll give you that.

You and I have two different definitions of "wilting" if you think he didn't wilt in that fight, but that's fine.

What are the biggest weaknesses Vitor has displayed on the feet? What's he had issues with his entire career?

[Kpn]

Vitor on TRT and in Brazil = I'm not touching this fight with a 10 ft. pole. I'm sitting this one out.

Yeah I think my play will be Luke straight up with a hedge of Belfort to finish, but since it's not in Nevada and Vitor might be juicing in his hometown where he's a king, makes me a bit hesitant.

[Dwil125]

Yeah I think my play will be Luke straight up with a hedge of Belfort to finish, but since it's not in Nevada and Vitor might be juicing in his hometown where he's a king, makes me a bit hesitant.

Looks like everyones making this play, I'm wondering if Kotn will be offered. I dont think Vitor Itd will open at a good number..

[Hannibal]

Vitor will be frustrated by rockholds kicking game and length, combined with his high output and pace
Vitor has been baby'd by the ufc...he either gets a very winnable fight, or a fight against a champ which doesn't ruin his rep if he loses. I think vitor was never that good, he wilts.

Look at how sakuraba was able to frustrate him with kciks. Tell me rockhold can't do that

[MD]

You and I have two different definitions of "wilting" if you think he didn't wilt in that fight, but that's fine.

What are the biggest weaknesses Vitor has displayed on the feet? What's he had issues with his entire career?

Vitor will be frustrated by rockholds kicking game and length, combined with his high output and pace
Vitor has been baby'd by the ufc...he either gets a very winnable fight, or a fight against a champ which doesn't ruin his rep if he loses. I think vitor was never that good, he wilts.

Look at how sakuraba was able to frustrate him with kciks. Tell me rockhold can't do that

<3

Exactly.

[mirinquads]

Probs for the fx 8 is out on 5 dimes. Rockhold dec at +300.