UFC 157 Rousey vs Carmouche (Feb 23)

**BIGDAY** · 02-23-13, 09:44 AM

First event that I won't be watching in some time.. Attending the div 1 wrestling national duels all day!

Locked in Hendo @ +220

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-23-13, 10:07 AM

Anyone else on Faber inside

**Sacrelicious** · 02-23-13, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

First event that I won't be watching in some time.. Attending the div 1 wrestling national duels all day!

Locked in Hendo @ +220

Ballsy play Mr Bigday, ballsy play!

**BIGDAY** · 02-23-13, 10:21 AM

I'm cashin.

**PunisherIND** · 02-23-13, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Anyone else on Faber inside

Tiny play on the sub prop

**Sacrelicious** · 02-23-13, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

I'm cashin.

Honestly there is nothing more I'd like to see then Hendo kicking some ass and getting the title shot he should have had last year. I'm trying to keep my emotions out of his one as best as possible though.

Even if I lose my bet though, it will be sick to see Hendo win.

**GigaOuts** · 02-23-13, 12:19 PM

Hendo is awesome, never been ko. I am less worry about his chin than the rest of his body. At 42, something else might break beside his chin like Diabate and Duane Ludwig. If Hendo get frustrated moving forward too aggressively, Lyoto might toss him like he toss Tito, something might break when they hit the floor.

I can't not bet on Lyoto either, he got drop by Shogun and rock by Jones and Hendo hit harder than those 2.
This card is not really good for me, I can't see any value at all. I am sure there is lot of value but I can't see it.

I like Chiesa, if odd -140 I might put 20 units on it (likely 1 or 2 units at current price)
on Lavar if odd +140 I go 5 units (but anything could happen in mma, especially heavy hitter involve)
love Bermudez but not touching at that price.

Not confidence! just value bet on Menjivar, Lawler, and Neer. No more than 1 units each.
It would be nice to see a +180 range fighter I like, the closes 1 is Kenny Robertson in this card but don't know them well enough to go big! maybe 2 units?

**sideloaded** · 02-23-13, 12:33 PM

i love fodor

**GigaOuts** · 02-23-13, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

i love fodor

Price is no object brother bear?

**PunisherIND** · 02-23-13, 12:52 PM

lol @ the avatar

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

lol @ the avatar battle

fyp

**Sykes** · 02-23-13, 12:57 PM

Anyone think Machida can submit Henderson? looking at his record all his sub losses has come against Machida's buddies. Nice odds too, might do it later.

I think Koscheck can sub Lawler too, I missed it at 7.5 last night, 5.5 today 4.5 at other places.

Schaub is good odds to win by points @ 6.5 dunno where everyone is getting the sub from, hes never submitted anyone, I see him getting KO'd @ 2.4 or win it on points.

**PunisherIND** · 02-23-13, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Sykes

Anyone think Machida can submit Henderson? looking at his record all his sub losses has come against Machida's buddies. Nice odds too, might do it later.

I think Koscheck can sub Lawler too, I missed it at 7.5 last night, 5.5 today 4.5 at other places.

Schaub is good odds to win by points @ 6.5 dunno where everyone is getting the sub from, hes never submitted anyone, I see him getting KO'd @ 2.4 or win it on points.

and no ones ever "decisioned" lavar. and fwiw, schaub only has 1 more decision than submissions.

i took a stab on the sub prop at +890.

**Sykes** · 02-23-13, 01:14 PM

I dont see him winning tbh I think he sucks. You took the fight ends in sub?

**sideloaded** · 02-23-13, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by GigaOuts

Price is no object brother bear?

locked it in at -145 value to -175 i say

**John Bugara** · 02-23-13, 01:24 PM

I have action on machida as well as a bit on lavar, I think schaubs a punk and will get confident when he starts landing and then get ktfo like he did against rothwell, it's actually a really similar match up except rothwell may be more competent on the ground then lavar. also what do you guys think of stout, i may be biased being canadian but i think fodor looks tough and that's it. tempted to put a bit on stout as well as a bit on a lawler finish but i don't think kos will be that stupid.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

and no ones ever "decisioned" lavar. and fwiw, schaub only has 1 more decision than submissions.

i took a stab on the sub prop at +890.

+270 now. BTCL BTCL BTCL

**omalley21** · 02-23-13, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

and no ones ever "decisioned" lavar. and fwiw, schaub only has 1 more decision than submissions.

i took a stab on the sub prop at +890.

Wish i got that one.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by John Bugara

I have action on machida as well as a bit on lavar, I think schaubs a punk and will get confident when he starts landing and then get ktfo like he did against rothwell, it's actually a really similar match up except rothwell may be more competent on the ground then lavar. also what do you guys think of stout, i may be biased being canadian but i think fodor looks tough and that's it. tempted to put a bit on stout as well as a bit on a lawler finish but i don't think kos will be that stupid.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 01:32 PM

Robertson/Jardine over 2.5 -125
Robertson/Jardine goes distance +150

They can't both be right.

**Rubber Guard** · 02-23-13, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by pouyasophy

honestly I know how good Machida is and everything, but Hendo is such a tough beast and is so good that it's just not a good idea to bet against him, ever...having said that, the most likely scenario is still Machida by decision I think....

I agree with this. I understand Machida is a tough matchup for Dan. But I can't believe the number of people I have seen or talked to that are basically writing Hendo off in this one. The same people who said Shogun had a good enough chin and striking to beat Dan. The same that said Fedor was just better at everything.

I just don't understand how you can go against Hendo as a sizable dog. He could hit the wall at any point, as he is 42, but I have learned long ago not to count him out. He can catch Machida just like Shogun did. Machida will probably play a pansy type game plan, and he is quick enough to dart in and out and win a decision. But just can't believe how many are giving Hendo such little chance.

**omalley21** · 02-23-13, 01:37 PM

Taking a tiny stab at Hendo by sub +2000. He went for the guillotine on shogun a few times. Machida also shot in after getting rocked against jones a few times, leaving his neck exposed. I could see hendo by guillotine.

**Kermit** · 02-23-13, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Robertson/Jardine over 2.5 -125
Robertson/Jardine goes distance +150

They can't both be right.

Well technically the fight could end in the last 2 minutes 30 seconds, thus not going the distance, but that is quite a swing there from Minus odds to plus odds. Usually when you have the odds at -125, they are favoring the fight to basically go the distance, but if the fights ends with 10 seconds left to go, this play would still win while the other would lose. Those odds are definitely a bit "Odd"

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by Kermit

Well technically the fight could end in the last 2 minutes 30 seconds, thus not going the distance, but that is quite a swing there from Minus odds to plus odds. Usually when you have the odds at -125, they are favoring the fight to basically go the distance, but if the fights ends with 10 seconds left to go, this play would still win while the other would lose.

Yes, obviously the middle can come in.

The point is one or both of the lines are misset, unless this matchup somehow has a skewed number of late finishes. Which I don't believe it does.

MMA market efficiency does not exist.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 01:48 PM

The line implies that a finish in the last 2:30 of the fight should occur 32.07% of the time.

**PunisherIND** · 02-23-13, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

The line implies that a finish in the last 2:30 of the fight should occur 32.07% of the time.

do you think a polish middle would make sense here? or just pick a side?

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

do you think a polish middle would make sense here? or just pick a side?

If you could get the vig-free price, absolutely. At available pricing, its like -1050 which is outside of my comfort level.

If you don't have an opinion, I'd wait to see where bookmaker opens their line and react accordingly.

**PunisherIND** · 02-23-13, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

If you could get the vig-free price, absolutely. At available pricing, its like -1050 which is outside of my comfort level.

If you don't have an opinion, I'd wait to see where bookmaker opens their line and react accordingly.

i just moved the distance line to +130

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 01:58 PM

I lol'd.

(Funny that my max-bet on that line didn't move it, but my earlier max bet on another similar line DID move it, guess they only really respect my action in mixed-race fights)

**Sacrelicious** · 02-23-13, 02:04 PM

Finally watched the 3 primetime episodes, great stuff, got me even more amped for the show tonight.

**everythingred** · 02-23-13, 02:18 PM

My Parlay:

- Dan Henderson (Harder for Dan to gas in 3 rounds and counting on H bomb)
- Lavar Johnson (Fighting the worst glass chin fighter)
- Rousey Submission (Liz might've not been armbarred at her gym but who has even heard of that gym)

8.27 odds

Gonna wait till about 4pm EST to see if the Hendo and Johnson lines get even better

**John Bugara** · 02-23-13, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

lol its closer than ya think bro lavar almost got submitted by pat barry and rothwell almost got sub'd by mark hunt.

**sideloaded** · 02-23-13, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Finally watched the 3 primetime episodes, great stuff, got me even more amped for the show tonight.

yeah im pumped too, all those slow mo action shots of getting out of the car and walking into the gym set to new wave pop music got me hyped as f-ck BREAH

**NunyaBidness** · 02-23-13, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by John Bugara

lol its closer than ya think bro lavar almost got submitted by pat barry and rothwell almost got sub'd by mark hunt.

For very different reasons.

**Sacrelicious** · 02-23-13, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

yeah im pumped too, all those slow mo action shots of getting out of the car and walking into the gym set to new wave pop music got me hyped as f-ck BREAH

Thats the spirit, you cyncal marsupial.