Honestly silva should be -5000

[sideloaded]

Stephan Bonnar lost to Mark Coleman

[dww123]

Losing to Coleman is bad but he was a completely different kind of fighter than Silva. I think the current line of -1500 is about right if for no other reason they are fighting at 205. Say what you want about Bonner's skills, he is still a big, strong, durable fighter.

[Thor4140]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/1817938-ufc-153-guess-lines.html

[sideloaded]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...ess-lines.html

gtfo you f-cking loser, line is already out wtf am I guessing you dumb f-ck?

[Thor4140]

gtfo you f-cking loser, line is already out wtf am I guessing you dumb f-ck?

[Luca Fury]

No one should be -5000. Not any fighter, player or team in any sport. That implies they are 98% likely to win, which no one is in any athletic competition.

Anderson should win, for sure, but even with a full camp and at his natural class, he shouldn't be -5000. Add in the short notice and move up to a higher weigh class, and -5000 is even more underserving.

[Mercersux]

If you really think about it, wouldn't most people be saying the -5000 line would have applied to Serra when he first fought St. Pierre the first time? Look how that turned out.

[dww123]

No one should be -5000. Not any fighter, player or team in any sport. That implies they are 98% likely to win, which no one is in any athletic competition.

Anderson should win, for sure, but even with a full camp and at his natural class, he shouldn't be -5000. Add in the short notice and move up to a higher weigh class, and -5000 is even more underserving.

Oddsmakers would disagree with you. Boxers are regularly set at -5000 levels yet in 100 year history of modern boxing odds the only time a favorite of that size lost was mike tyson at -4200.

[sideloaded]

No one should be -5000. Not any fighter, player or team in any sport. That implies they are 98% likely to win, which no one is in any athletic competition.

Anderson should win, for sure, but even with a full camp and at his natural class, he shouldn't be -5000. Add in the short notice and move up to a higher weigh class, and -5000 is even more underserving.

you have to be kidding yourself, this fight is in brazil. Zuffa isnt going to risk anderson losing. Why do you think dana put "one of his guys" in there? To take a fall, it's as simple as that. Bonnar will be paid extra to lose.

[Luca Fury]

you have to be kidding yourself, this fight is in brazil. Zuffa isnt going to risk anderson losing. Why do you think dana put "one of his guys" in there? To take a fall, it's as simple as that. Bonnar will be paid extra to lose.

LOL! No he won't.

[sideloaded]

LOL! No he won't.

I know you're a twitter celebrity but come on. "locker room" bonus, bonnar being retired, "one of the guys." Anyone can fill in the blanks.

Do you really think UFC is going to risk the brazilian market which is by far their largest performing market, and all the money they invested pushing Silva as the GOAT to a middle of the road, retired fringe top 20 fighter? Use common sense here brah. Read bonnars interviews. He knows he's a fall guy. If you're a "professional" I would have thought you would pick up on these kind of things.

Do you believe in fairy tales, clean boxing matches, and Dana White never lies too?

[sideloaded]

[Luca Fury]

I know you're a twitter celebrity but come on. "locker room" bonus, bonnar being retired, "one of the guys." Anyone can fill in the blanks.

Do you really think UFC is going to risk the brazilian market which is by far their largest performing market, and all the money they invested pushing Silva as the GOAT to a middle of the road, retired fringe top 20 fighter? Use common sense here brah. Read bonnars interviews. He knows he's a fall guy. If you're a "professional" I would have thought you would pick up on these kind of things.

Do you believe in fairy tales, clean boxing matches, and Dana White never lies too?

Why would they pay Bonnar to lose when it's already extremely likely that he will be smashed anyway? Why risk the potential destruction of your organization if that got leaked, when the situation is already low risk? Anderson beats Bonnar fair and square 9/10 times -- there is no need to risk your entire organization to make sure that number is 10/10.

Besides, if Bonanr wins they will just do an immediate rematch and Silva would smash him like he was supposed to the first time and it would a HUGE rematch that they could do in Brazil again. In fact, it'd actually be BETTER for the UFC if Bonnar won. See Pacquiao vs Bradley.

Also, if the UFC was so intent on fixing fights to to keep PPV draws intact, Brock Lesnar, Chuck Liddell and BJ Penn would have never lost. There is no logic to back your point, only logic to disprove it (hope that didn't come across as a dick phrase).

[sideloaded]

how would that leak? Bonnar? No. UFC is a private company so no one sees their books. Look at the video above. Zuffa aquired UFC under shady circumstances.

All the guys you mentioned lost to real contenders. Why would the ufc try to fix those? Now your GOAT losing to a can is a sure fire way to sink a ship.


Pacquiao vs Bradley? Uh ok? Where is that HUGE rematch at? LOL



every god damn know it all on this board likes to pop up with inside info of freak show fights being fixed in pride. But not one god damn smart ass would believe for a second UFC could do shady shit. Bottles the mind.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah tht Shamrock one was dodgy as fuuuck!

[sideloaded]

[Rubber Guard]

I know you're a twitter celebrity but come on. "locker room" bonus, bonnar being retired, "one of the guys." Anyone can fill in the blanks.

Do you really think UFC is going to risk the brazilian market which is by far their largest performing market, and all the money they invested pushing Silva as the GOAT to a middle of the road, retired fringe top 20 fighter? Use common sense here brah. Read bonnars interviews. He knows he's a fall guy. If you're a "professional" I would have thought you would pick up on these kind of things.

Do you believe in fairy tales, clean boxing matches, and Dana White never lies too?

For such a great fighter Anderson doesn't sell as much as many think. He is defiantly a consistent buy because there are a lot of people who just love watching him beat fools down. But him losing wouldn't lose the Brazilian base. There are a million good Brazilian fighters. Anderson may be the most popular current fighter. But they go just as crazy for Wandy and Big Nog. They love Aldo. JDS will be a huge draw, the primetime series put him over the top plus he is a HW, people love HWs. Machida, Shogun, Vitor... Barao is coming.

While I don't believe Bonnar is asked to lose. I do feel the UFC knows better than us who matches up well, and who just won't lose or who will look good at so and so. I do believe they know how to matchup guys they want to push. You can kind of the tell what they wouldn't risk. They pretty much know Bonnar will get made a fool here. They know even if Bonnar gets him down, the Brazilian crowd will force early stand ups. I tend to bet more upcoming guys than other fighters. They are upcoming for reason. Because the UFC recognizes talent and wants to make sure they get portrayed as beats on their way up.

Example: Erick Silva vs. John Fitch.

UFC knows Fitch has no chance. They hate Fitch, he is boring, they don't want him on the top of the division but they can use his reputation and name to build Silva. Fitch doesn't have explosive TDs and this is in Brazil. Silva is a beast of a WW and stuffed Brenneman with ease. Fitch is slowing a little but still has an amazing record for Silva to prey off of. Fitch can't use his LnP in Brazil. And really Silva is just better. The UFC knows this.

[NunyaBidness]

Oddsmakers would disagree with you. Boxers are regularly set at -5000 levels yet in 100 year history of modern boxing odds the only time a favorite of that size lost was mike tyson at -4200.

Link to your data please? I cannot find historical lines of bookmakers in the 1920s.

[PunisherIND]

Oddsmakers would disagree with you. Boxers are regularly set at -5000 levels yet in 100 year history of modern boxing odds the only time a favorite of that size lost was mike tyson at -4200.

that article on corrie sanders stated he was a 40-1 underdog in the klitschko fight. i fight that hard to believe, but surely klitschko was at least -5000?

[Luca Fury]

Oddsmakers would disagree with you. Boxers are regularly set at -5000 levels yet in 100 year history of modern boxing odds the only time a favorite of that size lost was mike tyson at -4200.

That's a lie. There have been several boxing favorites who have lost while being even more favored than Tyson's -4200. The biggest one I can remember was a -20000 favorite losing (yes, 20-1). There has also been a 15-1 favorite who lost in the past. There were some HUGE upsets earlier this year in europe too.

Don't just pull numbers out of nowhere and state them as facts.

EDIT: Meant 200-1 and 150-1.

[NunyaBidness]

That's a lie. There have been several boxing favorites who have lost while being even more favored than Tyson's -4200. The biggest one I can remember was a -20000 favorite losing (yes, 20-1). There has also been a 15-1 favorite who lost in the past. There were some HUGE upsets earlier this year in europe too.

Don't just pull numbers out of nowhere and state them as facts.

Umm, you're both silly.

-20000 is not 20-1 its 200-1. -5000 is 50-1, so mentioning a 15-1 dog doesn't really mean much.

[Luca Fury]

Umm, you're both silly.

-20000 is not 20-1 its 200-1. -5000 is 50-1, so mentioning a 15-1 dog doesn't really mean much.

Yeah, my bad. Meant 200-1 and 150-1. I just woke and hopped on the computer. Math is hard when you're groggy, LOL!

And yes, I don't wake up until the late afternoon.

[NunyaBidness]

And yes, I don't wake up until the late afternoon.

That's what gamblers are supposed to do.

[Vaughany]

True degen...Fury and Kalikas out banging broads all night then sleep all day...respek

[Luca Fury]

That's what gamblers are supposed to do.

LOL! Yeah, I don't go to bed until like 6 or 7am usually.

Also, I can't remember the exact line, but I'm pretty sure there was a boxing upset earlier this year Europe where I think the guy was like -12000. A boxing gambler I know was telling me about it. Between that, the Tennis upsets and the flukey MMA stuff, 2012 has kind of been like 2007 all over again.

[Luca Fury]

True degen...Fury and Kalikas out banging broads all night then sleep all day...respek

Nick is married with children in Costa Rica.

I am single and in a basement.

[Vaughany]

Nick is married with children in Costa Rica.

I am single and in a basement.

haha still living it large either way!

[NunyaBidness]

Nick is married with children in Costa Rica.

I am single and in a basement.

Dude, you're on the internet. Step up your game a little.

Wannabet is a 'doctor'.

Gabe isn't losing his ass.

Everyone here thinks I have a 1,000 foot driveway, but really its only 500 feet!

[NunyaBidness]

(Alternate joke:

I claim to be 7'4" and 520 lbs., but really I'm only 6' 3"!)

[Vaughany]

hahaha

[Luca Fury]

Dude, you're on the internet. Step up your game a little.

Wannabet is a 'doctor'.

Gabe isn't losing his ass.

Everyone here thinks I have a 1,000 foot driveway, but really its only 500 feet!

LOL! It's all good, I'm not ashamed as I have a good reason for my living situation. I'm saving up my money to move out to California where I have family and friends. Hoping to move out there next year but my goal is to save up 50k first. And by that, I mean 50k in my actual savings account, aside from the bankroll I have in sportsbooks. It's a lot easier to save up money when you don't have to pay rent!

[Vaughany]

These kind of things have to be done in these current times I guess

[sdbrady5]

Only was to cash is take over under on rounds and ill take U 1

[Vaughany]

Only was to cash is take over under on rounds and ill take U 1

[sideloaded]

luca how did you go from working for sherdog, to being demodded, to being banned. thats quite the fall.