Baseball Run Lines

**jjgold** · 09-15-05, 03:40 PM

I only bet run lines with teams that have a strong offense and only bet from -1.5 -120 or lower

**Illusion** · 09-15-05, 04:11 PM

Mudcat should know. I know he loves to bet them.

**Ganchrow** · 09-15-05, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by Emmdoubleu

What is your opion or strategy re: run lines. Seems like great value, but I am guessing succesful players's don't bite??

Run lines are typically quoted in wider spreads tranches than money lines (often 20c vs. 10c (or 10c vs. 8c at Pinnacle) for near even money line odds). This is a bad thing.

However, sometimes taking the run line will push the market to the top of a different spread tranche and potentially lower the theoretical hold. This is a good thing.

Example:

DET @ LAA
+200 @ -218 Money Line (18c wide -- theor hold: 1.85%)
-136 @ +126 Run Line (10c wide -- theor hold: 1.84%)

Books will often move their moneylines in response to action before moving their run lines. This can occasionally create implied value in the run line. This is a good thing.

If you can find a book which allows you to parlay run lines and totals (and I am personally aware of no such books -- but then again I'm not aware of much) you can find some great value through correlation. This is a good thing.

Due to the home-team/bottom of the ninth issue in baseball as well as the various strategic decisions present in all sports which don't always align your team's proper strategy with a favorable outcome for your bet, there exists an added degree of randomness in betting run lines versus money lines. Ceteris paribus, this can often make handicapping run lines inherently more difficult than handicapping moneylines. This is a bad thing.

I'm sure I'll think of other factors later...

**newb411breaker19** · 09-15-05, 04:27 PM

JJgold is right about not betting if odds are worse than -120. After this the value as well as risk just aren't worth it. Mostly when playing runlines i like to compare the starting pitchers. the numbers i find most important are the WHIP ratio, Runs/inning, and era on both all starts in the season and the last 3 starts. If i can find a fairly big mismatch then im willing to play the runline. for example, tonight pettitte's runs/inning (including unearned runs) is .155 for his last three starts while vargas' is .917. this is a huge mismatch even despite houston's poor offense. i dunno thats my 10 centz anyways
gluck

**Terris** · 09-15-05, 04:32 PM

yes but pinny is the exception with a 10 cent runline - on the other hand, you need nothing but pinny often :-P
If the ML on a huge fav is -220, and the runline -1.5 -110 or something, i prefer the runline for sure.

**Emmdoubleu** · 09-15-05, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by Terris

yes but pinny is the exception with a 10 cent runline - on the other hand, you need nothing but pinny often :-P
If the ML on a huge fav is -220, and the runline -1.5 -110 or something, i prefer the runline for sure.

I like to take luke warm favorites and take them on the run line -1.5 +180 or something ridiculous like that. Seems to good to be true to go from -120 to +180...I bite frequently and get burned occasionally. I just have to believe it is a bad bet....usually things that seem to good to be true are...I will continue to bite I am sure.

**Emmdoubleu** · 09-15-05, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by Emmdoubleu

I like to take luke warm favorites and take them on the run line -1.5 +180 or something ridiculous like that. Seems to good to be true to go from -120 to +180...I bite frequently and get burned occasionally. I just have to believe it is a bad bet....usually things that seem to good to be true are...I will continue to bite I am sure.

Before the insulting posts begin...I have no clue how to spell luke warm, but that certainly does not look correct.

**Razz** · 09-15-05, 04:51 PM

Only mistake is that it is one word, lukewarm. It doesn't look right, but it is. I'm not crazy about runlines, but feel that is the only play on some games, for example Anaheim -1.5 tonight. This is the perfect scenario in my mind for a runline bet, a team that is still in contention and was just swept against a team that has given up and had to travel across the country to face the best pitcher in the AL this season.

That said, I have a spreadsheet program which keeps track of all our plays. In baseball, we are up on home dogs (barely), home favorites, road dogs, and road favorites. The only side we are in the red on is runline games. So, maybe I shouldn't even be looking at them.

**Ganchrow** · 09-15-05, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Emmdoubleu

I like to take luke warm favorites and take them on the run line -1.5 +180 or something ridiculous like that. Seems to good to be true to go from -120 to +180.

If your primary criterion for determining whether or not to bet a run line is how dramatic the line shift appears when laying runs then you might want to take a gander at Pinnacle's or 5 Dimes's alternate run lines allowing you to lay (or take) as many as 2½ runs.

**Bill Dozer** · 09-15-05, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by newb411breaker19

JJgold is right about not betting if odds are worse than -120. After this the value as well as risk just aren't worth it.

Good topic here.

I'd have to disagree with the JJism here, even though he was only giving his preference.

There is a lot of great value to be found in the run line at all prices. It's really about the market price (I need a new word for market, I know). There is nothing wrong with playing +1.5 at -150.

**jjgold** · 09-15-05, 04:59 PM

I rarely take +1.5 as you have to lay too much and not worth it

**Bill Dozer** · 09-15-05, 05:04 PM

JJ,

You wouldn't make a play on the Yanks +1.5 -150 at Xsportsbook if the opposing team was offered at -1.5 +165 at most other books? (Lets say you only had a funded account at Xsportsbook.)

**jjgold** · 09-15-05, 05:07 PM

No way Billy

-150 is way too much to lay in Bases

I rather take the -1.5 +65

**raiders72001** · 09-15-05, 05:54 PM

However, when dealing with very large dogs or faves, laying the runs on the fave or taking the runs on the dog can sometimes push the run line market to a lower spread tranche. This is a good thing.

Example: Pinnacle Money Line 9/15/2005

DET @ LAA
+206 @ -224 Money Line (18c wide)
-111 @ +101 Run Line (10c wide)

Good post but +206/-224 is better than -111/+101 for the player. Theoretical hold on +206/-224 is 1.78% while +101/-111 is 2.3%

**Bill Dozer** · 09-15-05, 05:58 PM

If the line "everywhere" is +165/-185 and your only account has -150/+130 you gotta hit that -150.

**raiders72001** · 09-15-05, 05:58 PM

Also you MUST take the total into consideration when finding a correlation between the ML and RL as well as taking into affect the home/away team. RL of +1.5 at a total of 7 is better than a total of 12 and vice versa.

**raiders72001** · 09-15-05, 06:00 PM

If the line "everywhere" is +165/-185 and your only account has -150/+130 you gotta hit that -150

If this is the case you have a +165/-150 scalp.

**Emmdoubleu** · 09-15-05, 06:05 PM

I have never and could never imagine taking +1.5...do books really get close to even action on both sides of run lines...seems unlikely..

**tacomax** · 09-15-05, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by Bill Dozer

If the line "everywhere" is +165/-185 and your only account has -150/+130 you gotta hit that -150.

Of course you do - it's a value bet. You make your money betting by taking value bets. Saying that -150 is too much to lay is the sign of an inexperienced gambler. A value bet is a value bet whatever the odds are.

Then again, if the -150 was at the Royal, I'd pass on it.

**Bill Dozer** · 09-15-05, 06:07 PM

Which is why I said he only has an account at the one outfit. Basically I was giving JJ a hard time, saying that when there is value it is ok to pay what may look like a steep price.

:+friendly

**raiders72001** · 09-15-05, 06:09 PM

I have never and could never imagine taking +1.5...

I've found that +1.5 is more valuable than -1.5 because most players take the -1.5.

**raiders72001** · 09-15-05, 06:37 PM

Of course you do - it's a value bet. You make your money betting by taking value bets.

So called <value bets> are speculative. You can find <value bets> daily in tennis and soccer if you want to go head to head with Pinny or CRIS.

**Ganchrow** · 09-15-05, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Also you MUST take the total into consideration when finding a correlation between the ML and RL ...

You don't really have to look too hard to find such covariance. Not even the squarest book would let you parlay corresponding RLs and MLs!

**Relentless** · 09-15-05, 08:03 PM

I've done a limited amount of research on run lines, but the results clearly showed value to be on the side of taking the +1.5 rather than giving it. 31% of games won by favorites are by one run so even though you are paying some juice for it, it can be extremely valuable to take 31% of your dog plays and turn them from losers to winners.

**jjgold** · 09-15-05, 08:25 PM

My bad habit is taking good teams on the Rl not too lay juice and that is not a good way to play

I beleive but not certain RL are losing props long term because of so many 1 run games

**Mudcat** · 09-15-05, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Illusion

Mudcat should know. I know he loves to bet them.

I only play alternate runlines where I'm other taking the dog -1.5 or the favorite -2.5, and the juice is over +250.

It's my #1 bet in all of sports. They could cancel the whole NFL for all I care as long as there are 15 baseball games every day through the season and I can bet those alt. runlines.

**EBone** · 09-15-05, 08:32 PM

This is a fantastic topic. The real question is what Relentless just posted: how many one run games are there in a typical baseball season? Earlier in the year, I know for sure that it was 3 out of 10 (30%, pretty close to Relentless's 31%). Earlier in the year, I was playing -1.5 at one book and -1.5 at another book (usually the other book was Pinny) when the value correlated to a one run game of 20% of the time. If my math was correct, it had to average out to -1.5 +185 on both sides. Ganchrow, check my math.....is that correct?

Anyway, sometimes it worked out, sometimes it didn't.......I did make money on it although certainly not a fortune. I think I did this 20 times from June and July. The problem was finding that correlation. It was pretty difficult.

E

**raiders72001** · 09-15-05, 10:45 PM

You don't really have to look too hard to find such covariance. Not even the squarest book would let you parlay corresponding RLs and MLs!

I'm not talking about a correlated parlays. I'm saying that if a ML is -150 that in order to determine a RL for this you need to know the total and who is H/A. A RL when the ML is -150 and the total is 7 will be different than the RL when the total is 12 and the ML is -150. Same ML but different RL's based on total.

**freebie** · 09-15-05, 11:55 PM

I like to play -1 RL at Pinny. This helps reduce the juice. And if the team I picked wins by 1, I'll take it as a tie. Someone tell me is this stupid to play like this? I do it all the time and has been very good with playing favorites.

**Ganchrow** · 09-16-05, 12:04 AM

You'd be vastly oversimplifying the issue by equating the legaue-wide probability of a one-run game with the probability of a one-run game given a specific dog/fave tranche and a specific O/U level. Clearly, a one run game would be considerably more likely in a situation where the O/U is 6.5 and the money line is -104 @ -104 than where the O/U is 12 and the money line is -230 @ +212. As such, in order to determine the probabilty of an exact total occuring (and consequently the probability of hitting or not on a middle) you'd be exceedingly remiss in not including O/Us and MLs in your calculations.

That being said, given as per E-Bone, that the probability of a one-run game between two identical teams occuring is 30% (note that when two identical teams play one another, the probability of the home team winning by precisely one run is greater than that of the road team -- but that's immaterial when the two money lines are offered at equal odds) , if you played the -1.5 runs on each side at +185, for every $200 you bet, you'd win $85 (win $185 on one game and lose $100 on the other) 70% of the time, and lose $200 (lose $100 on bothe games) 30% of the time. This would then make your expected value = 85*70% - 200*30% = -$0.50 per $200 wagered (or -0.25%). Hence, if you can get +186 or better on RLs -1.5 then you can expect that a bet against the middle would be profitable.

**Ganchrow** · 09-16-05, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I'm not talking about a correlated parlays. I'm saying that if a ML is -150 that in order to determine a RL for this you need to know the total and who is H/A. A RL when the ML is -150 and the total is 7 will be different than the RL when the total is 12 and the ML is -150. Same ML but different RL's based on total.

Yes indeed, you're clearly correct. I had misunderstood you. Mea culpa.

**raiders72001** · 09-16-05, 04:54 AM

**raiders72001** · 09-16-05, 05:28 AM

- but that's immaterial when the two money lines are offered at equal odds)

You do have to consider which team is home or away even in a pk game. This isn't immaterial. If the score is tied 4-4 in the bottom of the 9th and the home team scores a run the game's over. If the home team is winning after the visiting team hits in the ninth the game is over.

You need to know the H/A, ML and O/U. With a database you can easily correlate the ML to RL. The reason you need to know the total is that to move off of 7 by 1/2 run it's worth 23 cents.To move off of 12 it's only worth 8 cents.

**raiders72001** · 09-16-05, 05:41 AM

if you played the -1.5 runs on each side at +185, for every $200 you bet, you'd win $85 (win $185 on one game and lose $100 on the other) 70% of the time, and lose $200 (lose $100 on bothe games) 30% of the time. This would then make your expected value = 85*70% - 200*30% = -$0.50 per $200 wagered (or -0.25%)

You are assuming in your formula that 30% of the time teams will win by one run no matter the H/A, ML or total. This is similar to saying the theoretical hold at -120/+110 is the same as -180/+170.

RL typicall deviate 70 to 140 cents depending upon the the factors stated above.

Also for anyone looking to play RL's in the playoffs there is a greater occurrence of 1 run games in the playoffs meaning that +1.5 is more valuable come playoff time.