Betting on the MLB Divisional Home Underdogs

texan · 07-30-12, 10:35 AM

Found several errors in some bets these few days: Detroit and Toronto, and Cinn and Colorado are not in the same division. I have corrected these and unloaded a corrected spreadsheet.

texan · 07-30-12, 12:55 PM

The link above contain only spreadsheets to backup the results.

This system is not very hard to implement. Just look for divisional dogs playing at home that meet the odds requirement.

Now here are today's 7-30-12 picks as of 11:50 GMT -6:

If you bet on teams with odds 100 to +110
No Play

If you bet on teams with odds 100 to +120
Chi. Cubs @ +119 v Pit Win +1.12 units final line has moved
Minn @ +116 v Chi. WS Win +1.16 units
Oak @ +118 v TB Sorry this is a non-divisional game

If you bet on teams with odds 100 to +130
Chi. Cubs @ +119 v Pit Win +1.12 units final line has moved
Minn @ +116 v Chi. WS Win +1.16 units
Oak @ +118 v TB Sorry this is a non-divisional game

texan · 07-31-12, 08:34 AM

If you bet only home underdogs with odds less than +110
Date	Away	Home	Line	Score	Score	Results	PL
04/05/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	100	0	1	Win	1.00
04/07/12	Seattle	Oakland	109	8	7	Lost	(1.00)
04/07/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	103	2	4	Win	1.03
04/08/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	104	0	3	Win	1.04
04/09/12	Chi. White Sox	Cleveland	104	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/10/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	101	7	4	Lost	(1.00)
04/10/12	Arizona	San Diego	103	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Washington	NY Mets	110	4	0	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	110	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Boston	Toronto	109	1	3	Win	1.09
04/11/12	San Francisco	Colorado	108	8	17	Win	1.08
04/13/12	Detroit	Chi. White Sox	100	2	5	Win	1.00
04/14/12	Oakland	Seattle	102	0	4	Win	1.02
04/15/12	Cleveland	Kansas City	100	13	7	Lost	(1.00)
04/15/12	Tampa Bay	Boston	104	4	6	Win	1.04
04/23/12	St. Louis	Chi. Cubs	102	2	3	Win	1.02
04/24/12	Toronto	Baltimore	110	1	2	Win	1.10
04/26/12	Toronto	Baltimore	109	2	5	Win	1.09
04/27/12	San Diego	San Francisco	109	5	3	Lost	(1.00)
04/29/12	Kansas City	Minnesota	106	4	7	Win	1.06
05/02/12	Philadelphia	Atlanta	102	13	15	Win	1.02
05/05/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	102	2	3	Win	1.02
05/06/12	Philadelphia	Washington	101	9	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/08/12	Colorado	San Diego	100	1	3	Win	1.00
05/11/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	108	3	4	Win	1.08
05/11/12	Chi. Cubs	Milwaukee	104	7	8	Win	1.04
05/11/12	San Francisco	Arizona	110	1	5	Win	1.10
05/14/12	NY Yankees	Baltimore	108	8	5	Lost	(1.00)
05/15/12	Tampa Bay	Toronto	108	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/16/12	Arizona	Colorado	101	1	6	Win	1.01
05/17/12	NY Yankees	Toronto	108	1	4	Win	1.08
05/21/12	Boston	Baltimore	102	8	6	Lost	(1.00)
05/21/12	LA Angels	Oakland	104	1	2	Win	1.04
05/22/12	Boston	Baltimore	107	1	4	Win	1.07
05/23/12	Detroit	Cleveland	106	2	4	Win	1.06
05/25/12	LA Angels	Seattle	108	6	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/27/12	Detroit	Minnesota	107	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/29/12	Philadelphia	NY Mets	107	3	6	Win	1.07
05/30/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	110	1	2	Win	1.10
06/01/12	Miami	Philadelphia	107	4	6	Win	1.07
06/01/12	Arizona	San Diego	104	1	7	Win	1.04
06/02/12	Texas	LA Angels	100	2	3	Win	1.00
06/02/12	Boston	Toronto	106	7	4	Lost	(1.00)
06/03/12	Miami	Philadelphia	100	5	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/03/12	Arizona	San Diego	108	6	0	Lost	(1.00)
06/05/12	San Francisco	San Diego	103	5	6	Win	1.03
06/06/12	San Francisco	San Diego	108	6	5	Lost	(1.00)
06/25/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	100	1	4	Win	1.00
06/26/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	106	3	2	Lost	(1.00)
06/26/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	0	2	Win	1.06
06/27/12	Oakland	Seattle	100	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/30/12	Philadelphia	Miami	107	2	3	Win	1.07
07/03/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	101	4	7	Win	1.01
07/06/12	Atlanta	Philadelphia	109	5	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/06/12	LA Dodgers	Arizona	102	3	5	Win	1.02
07/08/12	Seattle	Oakland	103	1	2	Win	1.03
07/13/12	Chi. White Sox	Kansas City	100	9	8	Lost	(1.00)
07/14/12	Texas	Seattle	108	0	7	Win	1.08
07/14/12	Washington	Miami	108	1	2	Win	1.08
07/16/12	Washington	Miami	100	3	5	Win	1.00
07/17/12	Texas	Oakland	106	6	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/17/12	St. Louis	Milwaukee	104	2	3	Win	1.04
07/21/12	Chi. White Sox	Detroit	109	1	7	Win	1.09
07/22/12	Colorado	San Diego	105	2	3	Win	1.05
07/22/12	Texas	LA Angels	105	4	7	Win	1.05
07/24/12	Atlanta	Miami	102	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
07/25/12	Atlanta	Miami	108	7	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/26/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	106	2	6	Win	1.06
07/27/12	Philadelphia	Atlanta	107	1	6	Win	1.07
07/27/12	Cincinnati	Colorado	108	3	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/28/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	10	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/29/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	4	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/30/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	116	6	7	Win
07/30/12	Pittsburgh	Chi. Cubs	112	4	14	Win
						Units	18.11
					Win	46	62.16%
					Lost	28	37.84%
					Total	74

texan · 07-31-12, 08:42 AM

If you bet only home underdogs with odds less than +120
Date	Away	Home	Line	Score	Score	Results	PL
04/05/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	100	0	1	Win	1.00
04/06/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	116	6	7	Win	1.16
04/07/12	Seattle	Oakland	109	8	7	Lost	(1.00)
04/07/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	103	2	4	Win	1.03
04/08/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	104	0	3	Win	1.04
04/08/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	120	5	7	Win	1.20
04/09/12	Chi. White Sox	Cleveland	104	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/10/12	Boston	Toronto	119	3	7	Win	1.19
04/10/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	101	7	4	Lost	(1.00)
04/10/12	Arizona	San Diego	103	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Washington	NY Mets	110	4	0	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	110	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Boston	Toronto	109	1	3	Win	1.09
04/11/12	San Francisco	Colorado	108	8	17	Win	1.08
04/12/12	San Francisco	Colorado	112	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/12/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	113	0	8	Win	1.13
04/13/12	Detroit	Chi. White Sox	100	2	5	Win	1.00
04/14/12	Oakland	Seattle	102	0	4	Win	1.02
04/15/12	Cleveland	Kansas City	100	13	7	Lost	(1.00)
04/15/12	Tampa Bay	Boston	104	4	6	Win	1.04
04/18/12	Detroit	Kansas City	113	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
04/20/12	Cincinnati	Chi. Cubs	119	9	4	Lost	(1.00)
04/21/12	Cincinnati	Chi. Cubs	118	1	6	Win	1.18
04/22/12	St. Louis	Pittsburgh	111	5	1	Lost	(1.00)
04/23/12	St. Louis	Chi. Cubs	102	2	3	Win	1.02
04/24/12	Miami	NY Mets	115	1	2	Win	1.15
04/24/12	Toronto	Baltimore	110	1	2	Win	1.10
04/26/12	Toronto	Baltimore	109	2	5	Win	1.09
04/27/12	San Diego	San Francisco	109	5	3	Lost	(1.00)
04/29/12	Kansas City	Minnesota	106	4	7	Win	1.06
05/02/12	Philadelphia	Atlanta	102	13	15	Win	1.02
05/05/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	102	2	3	Win	1.02
05/06/12	Philadelphia	Washington	101	9	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/08/12	Colorado	San Diego	100	1	3	Win	1.00
05/11/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	108	3	4	Win	1.08
05/11/12	Chi. Cubs	Milwaukee	104	7	8	Win	1.04
05/11/12	San Francisco	Arizona	110	1	5	Win	1.10
05/12/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	113	3	5	Win	1.13
05/13/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	113	9	8	Lost	(1.00)
05/14/12	NY Yankees	Baltimore	108	8	5	Lost	(1.00)
05/14/12	Detroit	Chi. White Sox	113	5	7	Win	1.13
05/14/12	Cleveland	Minnesota	114	5	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/15/12	Tampa Bay	Toronto	108	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/16/12	NY Yankees	Toronto	118	1	8	Win	1.18
05/16/12	Arizona	Colorado	101	1	6	Win	1.01
05/17/12	NY Yankees	Toronto	108	1	4	Win	1.08
05/21/12	Boston	Baltimore	102	8	6	Lost	(1.00)
05/21/12	LA Angels	Oakland	104	1	2	Win	1.04
05/21/12	Washington	Philadelphia	118	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
05/22/12	Boston	Baltimore	107	1	4	Win	1.07
05/23/12	Detroit	Cleveland	106	2	4	Win	1.06
05/24/12	LA Angels	Seattle	114	3	0	Lost	(1.00)
05/25/12	LA Angels	Seattle	108	6	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/26/12	Washington	Atlanta	112	8	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/27/12	Detroit	Minnesota	107	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/28/12	Arizona	San Francisco	112	2	4	Win	1.12
05/29/12	Philadelphia	NY Mets	107	3	6	Win	1.07
05/30/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	110	1	2	Win	1.10
06/01/12	Texas	LA Angels	116	2	4	Win	1.16
06/01/12	Miami	Philadelphia	107	4	6	Win	1.07
06/01/12	Cincinnati	Houston	118	4	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/01/12	Arizona	San Diego	104	1	7	Win	1.04
06/02/12	Texas	LA Angels	100	2	3	Win	1.00
06/02/12	Boston	Toronto	106	7	4	Lost	(1.00)
06/03/12	Miami	Philadelphia	100	5	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/03/12	Arizona	San Diego	108	6	0	Lost	(1.00)
06/04/12	Texas	Oakland	120	1	12	Win	1.20
06/05/12	San Francisco	San Diego	103	5	6	Win	1.03
06/06/12	San Francisco	San Diego	108	6	5	Lost	(1.00)
06/07/12	NY Mets	Washington	112	3	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/25/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	100	1	4	Win	1.00
06/26/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	106	3	2	Lost	(1.00)
06/26/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	0	2	Win	1.06
06/27/12	Oakland	Seattle	100	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/30/12	Philadelphia	Miami	107	2	3	Win	1.07
07/03/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	101	4	7	Win	1.01
07/06/12	Atlanta	Philadelphia	109	5	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/06/12	LA Dodgers	Arizona	102	3	5	Win	1.02
07/08/12	Seattle	Oakland	103	1	2	Win	1.03
07/13/12	Chi. White Sox	Kansas City	100	9	8	Lost	(1.00)
07/14/12	Chi. White Sox	Kansas City	112	3	6	Win	1.12
07/14/12	Texas	Seattle	108	0	7	Win	1.08
07/14/12	Washington	Miami	108	1	2	Win	1.08
07/16/12	Washington	Miami	100	3	5	Win	1.00
07/17/12	Texas	Oakland	106	6	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/17/12	St. Louis	Milwaukee	104	2	3	Win	1.04
07/21/12	Chi. White Sox	Detroit	109	1	7	Win	1.09
07/21/12	Texas	LA Angels	111	9	2	Lost	(1.00)
07/22/12	Colorado	San Diego	105	2	3	Win	1.05
07/22/12	Texas	LA Angels	105	4	7	Win	1.05
07/24/12	Atlanta	Miami	102	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
07/24/12	Detroit	Cleveland	111	2	3	Win	1.11
07/25/12	Atlanta	Miami	108	7	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/26/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	106	2	6	Win	1.06
07/27/12	Philadelphia	Atlanta	107	1	6	Win	1.07
07/28/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	10	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/28/12	Cleveland	Minnesota	117	5	12	Win	1.17
07/29/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	4	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/30/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	116	6	7	Win	1.16
07/30/12	Pittsburgh	Chi. Cubs	112	4	14	Win	1.12
						Units	26.72
					Win	61	61.00%
					Lost	39	39.00%
					Total	100

texan · 07-31-12, 08:49 AM

If you bet only home underdogs with odds less than +130
Date	Away	Home	Line	Score	Score	Results	PL
04/05/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	100	0	1	Win	1.00
04/06/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	116	6	7	Win	1.16
04/07/12	Seattle	Oakland	109	8	7	Lost	(1.00)
04/07/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	103	2	4	Win	1.03
04/08/12	San Francisco	Arizona	123	6	7	Win	1.23
04/08/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	104	0	3	Win	1.04
04/08/12	Atlanta	NY Mets	120	5	7	Win	1.20
04/09/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	123	7	5	Lost	(1.00)
04/09/12	Chi. White Sox	Cleveland	104	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/10/12	Boston	Toronto	119	3	7	Win	1.19
04/10/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	101	7	4	Lost	(1.00)
04/10/12	Arizona	San Diego	103	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Washington	NY Mets	110	4	0	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	110	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
04/11/12	Boston	Toronto	109	1	3	Win	1.09
04/11/12	San Francisco	Colorado	108	8	17	Win	1.08
04/12/12	San Francisco	Colorado	112	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
04/12/12	Arizona	San Diego	122	3	1	Lost	(1.00)
04/12/12	Milwaukee	Chi. Cubs	113	0	8	Win	1.13
04/13/12	Detroit	Chi. White Sox	100	2	5	Win	1.00
04/14/12	Oakland	Seattle	102	0	4	Win	1.02
04/15/12	Cleveland	Kansas City	100	13	7	Lost	(1.00)
04/15/12	Tampa Bay	Boston	104	4	6	Win	1.04
04/18/12	Detroit	Kansas City	113	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
04/20/12	Cincinnati	Chi. Cubs	119	9	4	Lost	(1.00)
04/21/12	Cincinnati	Chi. Cubs	118	1	6	Win	1.18
04/21/12	St. Louis	Pittsburgh	127	0	2	Win	1.27
04/22/12	St. Louis	Pittsburgh	111	5	1	Lost	(1.00)
04/23/12	St. Louis	Chi. Cubs	102	2	3	Win	1.02
04/24/12	Miami	NY Mets	115	1	2	Win	1.15
04/24/12	Toronto	Baltimore	110	1	2	Win	1.10
04/24/12	St. Louis	Chi. Cubs	124	2	3	Win	1.24
04/25/12	Miami	NY Mets	123	1	5	Win	1.23
04/26/12	Toronto	Baltimore	109	2	5	Win	1.09
04/27/12	San Diego	San Francisco	109	5	3	Lost	(1.00)
04/29/12	Kansas City	Minnesota	106	4	7	Win	1.06
05/02/12	Philadelphia	Atlanta	102	13	15	Win	1.02
05/04/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	125	6	1	Lost	(1.00)
05/05/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	102	2	3	Win	1.02
05/05/12	St. Louis	Houston	122	2	8	Win	1.22
05/06/12	Philadelphia	Washington	101	9	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/06/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	130	5	0	Lost	(1.00)
05/08/12	Colorado	San Diego	100	1	3	Win	1.00
05/11/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	108	3	4	Win	1.08
05/11/12	Chi. Cubs	Milwaukee	104	7	8	Win	1.04
05/11/12	San Francisco	Arizona	110	1	5	Win	1.10
05/12/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	113	3	5	Win	1.13
05/13/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	113	9	8	Lost	(1.00)
05/14/12	NY Yankees	Baltimore	108	8	5	Lost	(1.00)
05/14/12	Detroit	Chi. White Sox	113	5	7	Win	1.13
05/14/12	Cleveland	Minnesota	114	5	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/15/12	Tampa Bay	Toronto	108	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/15/12	Cleveland	Minnesota	125	5	0	Lost	(1.00)
05/16/12	NY Yankees	Toronto	118	1	8	Win	1.18
05/16/12	Arizona	Colorado	101	1	6	Win	1.01
05/17/12	NY Yankees	Toronto	108	1	4	Win	1.08
05/17/12	Milwaukee	Houston	130	0	4	Win	1.30
05/21/12	Boston	Baltimore	102	8	6	Lost	(1.00)
05/21/12	LA Angels	Oakland	104	1	2	Win	1.04
05/21/12	Texas	Seattle	127	1	6	Win	1.27
05/21/12	Washington	Philadelphia	118	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
05/22/12	Boston	Baltimore	107	1	4	Win	1.07
05/23/12	Texas	Seattle	122	3	5	Win	1.22
05/23/12	Detroit	Cleveland	106	2	4	Win	1.06
05/24/12	LA Angels	Seattle	114	3	0	Lost	(1.00)
05/25/12	LA Angels	Seattle	108	6	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/25/12	Detroit	Minnesota	130	10	6	Lost	(1.00)
05/26/12	Washington	Atlanta	112	8	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/26/12	Detroit	Minnesota	130	6	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/27/12	LA Angels	Seattle	127	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
05/27/12	Detroit	Minnesota	107	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
05/28/12	Arizona	San Francisco	112	2	4	Win	1.12
05/28/12	Philadelphia	NY Mets	122	8	4	Lost	(1.00)
05/29/12	Philadelphia	NY Mets	107	3	6	Win	1.07
05/29/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	122	8	1	Lost	(1.00)
05/30/12	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	110	1	2	Win	1.10
06/01/12	Texas	LA Angels	116	2	4	Win	1.16
06/01/12	Miami	Philadelphia	107	4	6	Win	1.07
06/01/12	Cincinnati	Houston	118	4	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/01/12	Arizona	San Diego	104	1	7	Win	1.04
06/02/12	Texas	LA Angels	100	2	3	Win	1.00
06/02/12	Cincinnati	Houston	124	12	9	Lost	(1.00)
06/02/12	Boston	Toronto	106	7	4	Lost	(1.00)
06/03/12	Cincinnati	Houston	129	3	5	Win	1.29
06/03/12	Miami	Philadelphia	100	5	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/03/12	Arizona	San Diego	108	6	0	Lost	(1.00)
06/04/12	Texas	Oakland	120	1	12	Win	1.20
06/05/12	St. Louis	Houston	125	8	9	Win	1.25
06/05/12	San Francisco	San Diego	103	5	6	Win	1.03
06/06/12	St. Louis	Houston	126	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
06/06/12	San Francisco	San Diego	108	6	5	Lost	(1.00)
06/07/12	NY Mets	Washington	112	3	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/25/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	100	1	4	Win	1.00
06/26/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	106	3	2	Lost	(1.00)
06/26/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	0	2	Win	1.06
06/27/12	Oakland	Seattle	100	2	1	Lost	(1.00)
06/30/12	Kansas City	Minnesota	122	1	5	Win	1.22
06/30/12	Washington	Atlanta	128	5	7	Win	1.28
06/30/12	Philadelphia	Miami	107	2	3	Win	1.07
07/03/12	NY Yankees	Tampa Bay	101	4	7	Win	1.01
07/04/12	Philadelphia	NY Mets	127	9	2	Lost	(1.00)
07/06/12	Atlanta	Philadelphia	109	5	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/06/12	Milwaukee	Houston	130	7	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/06/12	LA Dodgers	Arizona	102	3	5	Win	1.02
07/08/12	Seattle	Oakland	103	1	2	Win	1.03
07/13/12	Chi. White Sox	Kansas City	100	9	8	Lost	(1.00)
07/14/12	Chi. White Sox	Kansas City	112	3	6	Win	1.12
07/14/12	Texas	Seattle	108	0	7	Win	1.08
07/14/12	Washington	Miami	108	1	2	Win	1.08
07/15/12	Washington	Miami	130	4	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/16/12	Washington	Miami	100	3	5	Win	1.00
07/17/12	Texas	Oakland	106	6	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/17/12	St. Louis	Milwaukee	104	2	3	Win	1.04
07/18/12	Texas	Oakland	125	3	4	Win	1.25
07/21/12	Chi. White Sox	Detroit	109	1	7	Win	1.09
07/21/12	Texas	LA Angels	111	9	2	Lost	(1.00)
07/22/12	Colorado	San Diego	105	2	3	Win	1.05
07/22/12	Texas	LA Angels	105	4	7	Win	1.05
07/23/12	Washington	NY Mets	126	8	2	Lost	(1.00)
07/24/12	Atlanta	Miami	102	4	3	Lost	(1.00)
07/24/12	Detroit	Cleveland	111	2	3	Win	1.11
07/24/12	Cincinnati	Houston	123	4	2	Lost	(1.00)
07/25/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	127	10	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/25/12	Detroit	Cleveland	125	5	3	Lost	(1.00)
07/25/12	Atlanta	Miami	108	7	1	Lost	(1.00)
07/26/12	Tampa Bay	Baltimore	106	2	6	Win	1.06
07/27/12	Philadelphia	Atlanta	107	1	6	Win	1.07
07/28/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	10	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/28/12	Cleveland	Minnesota	117	5	12	Win	1.17
07/29/12	LA Dodgers	San Francisco	106	4	0	Lost	(1.00)
07/29/12	Pittsburgh	Houston	126	5	9	Win	1.26
07/30/12	Chi. White Sox	Minnesota	116	6	7	Win	1.16
07/30/12	Pittsburgh	Chi. Cubs	112	4	14	Win	1.12
						Units	25.25
					Win	75	56.39%
					Lost	58	43.61%
					Total	133

Titan_12 · 07-31-12, 08:57 AM

Very interesting!

Are those lines the OPENING or CLOSING lines?

texan · 07-31-12, 08:57 AM

This strategy is pretty basic and simple.
1- Look for divisional underdogs playing at home.
2- Decide which odds you want to bet on. I personally like taking home divisional underdogs with odd between +100 and +120.
3- No bets on favorites.
4- No bets on dogs playing away.

No need to have someone make your pick because this strategy is some simple.

GOOD LUCK

Not wanting to sell anything! Just want to contribute to the forum. The link in the first post has been updated to prove my point. The complete data set can be found in the spreadsheets.

The Theory:
Divisional team play each other more often and therefore know each other moree.g. player, environment (ball parks, etc.).You want to bet on team that have a shot of winning, not betting on the long shots. I bet on the moneyline to get a better value. Betting on the runline causes you to give up value. You will make as much or more on each bet than you have a risk. Not betting on the long shot cause you to make less on each win but you should have a higher win rate. It's just a numbers game.

texan · 07-31-12, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by Titan_12

Very interesting!

Are those lines the OPENING or CLOSING lines?

These lines are on the closing line. My book is Pinnacle.
Good luck.

texan · 07-31-12, 12:32 PM

There are only 3 underdogs playing at home today (7/31/12) but 2 are all non-divisional games and 1 has odds greater than +130. So today there are no plays as of 11:30 AM GMT -6.

Boston @ +118 v Detroit - non-divisional
Colorado @ +124 v St. Louis - non-divisional
Minnesota @ +137 v White Sox - divisional but outside the odds range

Roscoe2330 · 07-31-12, 10:46 PM

Texan-

I love this approach!

Just curious but when would you place your wagers? Do you wait until right before first pitch?

Also, I was trying to follow the Pinnacle lines on the SBR site for all of the prior games and couldn't tie to them - are the lines not necessarily closing lines but lines that you got near closing or at a certain time?

I'm just trying to make sure I understand everything completely and don't botch anything when I put the system in play.

Thanks man - appreciate any feedback you can provide.

Roscoe

Roscoe2330 · 07-31-12, 10:51 PM

Hey Texan-

Sorry, nevermind - I was looking at the lines as shown on the main page, but when I clicked on Lines History, I can see a different line that ties exactly to what you have on the spreadsheet. That helps me out.

But if you could answer my initial question, as to when you make your plays, that would also help me out. I was trying to find some link with the opening line so I didn't have to monitor / be prepared for each starting time but I guess there's not more than 4 games a night so it's not that much of a big deal.

Thanks again,
Roscoe

Roscoe2330 · 07-31-12, 11:38 PM

Sorry to keep coming with questions but have you back tested this approach for prior years? Just curious if it had similar success.

Thanks again

figue · 07-31-12, 11:57 PM

good stuff here

figue · 08-01-12, 12:16 AM

look like minesota +105 for tomorrow.

texan · 08-01-12, 11:48 AM

Hi Roscoe,

The lines are actually got from covers.com after the start of the last game of the day. I think covers get the odds from Pinnacle because when I usually place my bet the odds are very close. This is usually at about 5-30 prior to the start of the game. Using this system you will only have between 0 to 3 bets per day. Hope this helps and good luck.

Texan

texan · 08-01-12, 11:54 AM

Hi Roscoe,

I will try to go to covers for past year's data. I get this from their MLB Consensus Picks. I simply copy the table from the site and paste it into a spreadsheet. The most time consuming part of this process is getting the data because I have to go to each individual day to get the games, odds etc. then go to ESPN for the scores. I use a firefox addon called Table to Clipboard to copy the table and pasting it into the spreadsheet. Once the data is in the spreadsheet I have tables and formulas to do the calculations.

texan · 08-01-12, 12:02 PM

Here is the data from Covers for today. Look only at home games that have odds between +100 and +120. Then check to see if it is a divisional game.

Time	Away	Line	Picks	Pct	Home	Line	Picks	Pct	Detail	Odds
2:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2981.html	+226	1	9.09%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2976.html	-243	10	90.91%	View	View
7:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2955.html	+167	4	26.67%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2961.html	-178	11	73.33%	View	View
10:15 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2964.html	+162	3	27.27%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2962.html	-173	8	72.73%	View	View
1:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2974.html	-117	3	30.00%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2983.html	+110	7	70.00%	View	View
7:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2963.html	+192	5	35.71%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2957.html	-205	9	64.29%	View	View
3:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2968.html	+103	5	41.67%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2967.html	-109	7	58.33%	View	View
1:05 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2959.html	+168	6	46.15%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2970.html	-179	7	53.85%	View	View
7:05 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2958.html	+121	6	50.00%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2972.html	-128	6	50.00%	View	View
8:05 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2979.html	+153	1	50.00%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2977.html	-163	1	50.00%	View	View
8:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2980.html	-108	5	55.56%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2965.html	+102	4	44.44%	View	View
7:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2978.html	-103	7	58.33%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2966.html	-103	5	41.67%	View	View
2:20 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2971.html	-120	10	58.82%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2982.html	+113	7	41.18%	View	View
10:10 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2984.html	-108	7	63.64%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2973.html	+102	4	36.36%	View	View
8:40 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2975.html	-130	12	85.71%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2956.html	+122	2	14.29%	View	View
3:35 PM	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2960.html	+111	11	91.67%	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2969.html	-118	1	8.33%	View	View

Looks like it is:
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2983.html @ +100 v Sox
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2965.html @ +102 v Cleveland
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2982.html @ +113 v Pitt
These are as of 11:00 PM GMT -6

No need to look at any other column other than the lines for home team. Then check to see for both teams are in the same division. Seattle and Toronto are not in the same division.

texan · 08-01-12, 09:48 PM

Today's results 8/1/12
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2983.html @ +100 v Sox Loss
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2965.html @ +102 v Cleveland Win
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2982.html @ +113 v Pitt Loss

-0.98 for the day

texan · 08-02-12, 07:45 PM

Nothing today (8/2/12)

texan · 08-03-12, 10:56 AM

There are 6 divisional games today (8/3/12):
Miami @ Washington - Washington is not the underdog
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - Cincinnati is not the underdog
Milwaukee @ St. Louis - St. Louis is not the underdog
Cleveland @ Detroit - Detroit is not the underdog
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay is not the underdog
San Francisco @ Colorado - Colorado is the underdog but has lines of +141

Therefore there is no play for today, however odds could change before game time.

texan · 08-04-12, 09:38 AM

Time	Away	Home	Line
7:10 PM	Houston	Atlanta	-206
7:10 PM	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	-130
1:05 PM	Seattle	NY Yankees	-145
7:05 PM	Miami	Washington	-168
7:05 PM	Arizona	Philadelphia	-140
7:15 PM	Milwaukee	St. Louis	-200
8:10 PM	San Francisco	Colorado	145
7:05 PM	Cleveland	Detroit	-184
6:10 PM	Texas	Kansas City	140
9:10 PM	Chi. Cubs	LA Dodgers	-280
4:05 PM	Toronto	Oakland	-158
7:10 PM	Baltimore	Tampa Bay	-134
7:10 PM	LA Angels	Chi. White Sox	-124
8:35 PM	NY Mets	San Diego	-135
7:10 PM	Minnesota	Boston	-187

Looks like KC and Colorado are the only Home Dogs today and KC v Texas is not a divisional game. Colorado has a line of +145 which is beyond the limit. So it looks like there are no plays for day (8/4/12), However lines could change check before game time. These lines are as of 8:30 AM GMT -6.

texan · 08-05-12, 11:56 AM

Looks like either the divisional favorite is playing at home or the dog is at home but it is a non-divisional game for today. Looks like we are going through a dry spell where nothing qualifies. I think it will pick up soon.

Time	Away	Home	Line
1:35 PM	Miami	Washington	-235
1:35 PM	Houston	Atlanta	-220
8:05 PM	Milwaukee	St. Louis	-166
1:35 PM	Arizona	Philadelphia	-142
1:05 PM	Seattle	NY Yankees	-183
1:05 PM	Cleveland	Detroit	-210
2:10 PM	Texas	Kansas City	129
1:35 PM	Minnesota	Boston	-195
4:05 PM	Toronto	Oakland	-168
4:10 PM	Chi. Cubs	LA Dodgers	-175
4:05 PM	NY Mets	San Diego	135
1:10 PM	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	-115
2:10 PM	LA Angels	Chi. White Sox	101
1:40 PM	Baltimore	Tampa Bay	-230
3:10 PM	San Francisco	Colorado	141

ParlayininHTown · 08-05-12, 11:59 AM

Come September, there will be tons of divisional games. But capping September baseball is not an easy task. I'm very interested to see how this performs during that month.

texan · 08-06-12, 07:10 AM

Looks like Philadelphia is a selection today as of 6:00 AM GMT-6

Time	Away	Home	Line
7:05 PM	Atlanta	Philadelphia	110

figue · 08-06-12, 02:15 PM

JMon · 08-06-12, 07:51 PM

I can run a back test on this in a matter of seconds. Let me know if your interested and I'll post away.

texan · 08-27-12, 12:29 PM

	Betting ONLY the Divisional Home Underdogs
	With an initial balance of $1000, betting % of account with odd less than +110,+120,+130
As of	Percent	Total	P/L	P/L	P/L	P/L	P/L	P/L	P/L	P/L	P/L
8/26/12	Wins	Bets	2% Bet	3% Bet	4% Bet	5% Bet	6% Bet	7% Bet	8% Bet	9% Bet	10% Bets
< +110	61.45%	83	1428.20	1642.30	1856.40	2070.50	2284.60	2498.70	2712.80	2926.90	3141.00
< +120	60.87%	115	1607.00	1910.50	2214.00	2517.50	2821.00	3124.50	3428.00	3731.50	4035.00
< +130	56.13%	155	1574.00	1861.00	2148.00	2435.00	2722.00	3009.00	3296.00	3583.00	3870.00

texan · 08-27-12, 12:31 PM

Hi JMon,

I live in Costa Rica and have been in Panama and just got back. I am interested in seeing what you have. Thanks

Texan

texan · 08-27-12, 12:42 PM

Hi JMon,

I live in Costa Rica and have been in Panama and just got back. I am interested in seeing what you have. Thanks

Texan

JMon · 08-27-12, 09:58 PM

^ sent a pm

texan · 08-28-12, 11:31 PM

Link to excel spreadsheet showing actual data from this years MLB season:

Just a moment...

https://www.box.com/s/dba90ab018482f0f97b8

Home underdog strategy results as of 8/26/12. This is for all underdogs with odds less than +130.

Date	Away	Line	Home	Line	Away	Home	Results
04/05/12	Atlanta	-106	NY Mets	100	0	1	Win
04/06/12	NY Yankees	-123	Tampa Bay	116	6	7	Win
04/07/12	Seattle	-116	Oakland	109	8	7	Lost
04/07/12	Atlanta	-109	NY Mets	103	2	4	Win
04/08/12	San Francisco	-131	Arizona	123	6	7	Win
04/08/12	NY Yankees	-110	Tampa Bay	104	0	3	Win
04/08/12	Atlanta	-127	NY Mets	120	5	7	Win
04/09/12	Milwaukee	-131	Chi. Cubs	123	7	5	Lost
04/09/12	Chi. White Sox	-110	Cleveland	104	4	2	Lost
04/10/12	Boston	-126	Toronto	119	3	7	Win
04/10/12	Milwaukee	-107	Chi. Cubs	101	7	4	Lost
04/10/12	Arizona	-109	San Diego	103	4	2	Lost
04/11/12	Washington	-117	NY Mets	110	4	0	Lost
04/11/12	Milwaukee	-117	Chi. Cubs	110	2	1	Lost
04/11/12	Boston	-116	Toronto	109	1	3	Win
04/11/12	San Francisco	-115	Colorado	108	8	17	Win
04/12/12	San Francisco	-119	Colorado	112	4	2	Lost
04/12/12	Arizona	-130	San Diego	122	3	1	Lost
04/12/12	Milwaukee	-120	Chi. Cubs	113	0	8	Win
04/13/12	Detroit	-106	Chi. White Sox	100	2	5	Win
04/14/12	Oakland	-108	Seattle	102	0	4	Win
04/15/12	Cleveland	-106	Kansas City	100	13	7	Lost
04/15/12	Tampa Bay	-110	Boston	104	4	6	Win
04/18/12	Detroit	-120	Kansas City	113	4	3	Lost
04/20/12	Cincinnati	-126	Chi. Cubs	119	9	4	Lost
04/21/12	Cincinnati	-125	Chi. Cubs	118	1	6	Win
04/21/12	St. Louis	-135	Pittsburgh	127	0	2	Win
04/22/12	St. Louis	-118	Pittsburgh	111	5	1	Lost
04/23/12	St. Louis	-108	Chi. Cubs	102	2	3	Win
04/24/12	Miami	-122	NY Mets	115	1	2	Win
04/24/12	Toronto	-117	Baltimore	110	1	2	Win
04/24/12	St. Louis	-132	Chi. Cubs	124	2	3	Win
04/25/12	Miami	-131	NY Mets	123	1	5	Win
04/26/12	Toronto	-116	Baltimore	109	2	5	Win
04/27/12	San Diego	-116	San Francisco	109	5	3	Lost
04/29/12	Kansas City	-113	Minnesota	106	4	7	Win
05/02/12	Philadelphia	-108	Atlanta	102	13	15	Win
05/04/12	Cincinnati	-133	Pittsburgh	125	6	1	Lost
05/05/12	Cincinnati	-108	Pittsburgh	102	2	3	Win
05/05/12	St. Louis	-130	Houston	122	2	8	Win
05/06/12	Philadelphia	-107	Washington	101	9	3	Lost
05/06/12	Cincinnati	-138	Pittsburgh	130	5	0	Lost
05/08/12	Colorado	-106	San Diego	100	1	3	Win
05/11/12	Tampa Bay	-115	Baltimore	108	3	4	Win
05/11/12	Chi. Cubs	-110	Milwaukee	104	7	8	Win
05/11/12	San Francisco	-117	Arizona	110	1	5	Win
05/12/12	Tampa Bay	-120	Baltimore	113	3	5	Win
05/13/12	Tampa Bay	-120	Baltimore	113	9	8	Lost
05/14/12	NY Yankees	-115	Baltimore	108	8	5	Lost
05/14/12	Detroit	-120	Chi. White Sox	113	5	7	Win
05/14/12	Cleveland	-121	Minnesota	114	5	4	Lost
05/15/12	Tampa Bay	-115	Toronto	108	4	3	Lost
05/15/12	Cleveland	-133	Minnesota	125	5	0	Lost
05/16/12	NY Yankees	-125	Toronto	118	1	8	Win
05/16/12	Arizona	-107	Colorado	101	1	6	Win
05/17/12	NY Yankees	-115	Toronto	108	1	4	Win
05/17/12	Milwaukee	-138	Houston	130	0	4	Win
05/21/12	Boston	-108	Baltimore	102	8	6	Lost
05/21/12	LA Angels	-110	Oakland	104	1	2	Win
05/21/12	Texas	-135	Seattle	127	1	6	Win
05/21/12	Washington	-125	Philadelphia	118	2	1	Lost
05/22/12	Boston	-114	Baltimore	107	1	4	Win
05/23/12	Texas	-129	Seattle	122	3	5	Win
05/23/12	Detroit	-113	Cleveland	106	2	4	Win
05/24/12	LA Angels	-121	Seattle	114	3	0	Lost
05/25/12	LA Angels	-115	Seattle	108	6	4	Lost
05/25/12	Detroit	-138	Minnesota	130	10	6	Lost
05/26/12	Washington	-119	Atlanta	112	8	4	Lost
05/26/12	Detroit	-138	Minnesota	130	6	3	Lost
05/27/12	LA Angels	-135	Seattle	127	4	2	Lost
05/27/12	Detroit	-114	Minnesota	107	4	3	Lost
05/28/12	Arizona	-119	San Francisco	112	2	4	Win
05/28/12	Philadelphia	-130	NY Mets	122	8	4	Lost
05/29/12	Philadelphia	-114	NY Mets	107	3	6	Win
05/29/12	Cincinnati	-130	Pittsburgh	122	8	1	Lost
05/30/12	Cincinnati	-117	Pittsburgh	110	1	2	Win
06/01/12	Texas	-123	LA Angels	116	2	4	Win
06/01/12	Miami	-114	Philadelphia	107	4	6	Win
06/01/12	Cincinnati	-125	Houston	118	4	1	Lost
06/01/12	Arizona	-110	San Diego	104	1	7	Win
06/02/12	Texas	-106	LA Angels	100	2	3	Win
06/02/12	Cincinnati	-132	Houston	124	12	9	Lost
06/02/12	Boston	-113	Toronto	106	7	4	Lost
06/03/12	Cincinnati	-137	Houston	129	3	5	Win
06/03/12	Miami	-106	Philadelphia	100	5	1	Lost
06/03/12	Arizona	-115	San Diego	108	6	0	Lost
06/04/12	Texas	-127	Oakland	120	1	12	Win
06/05/12	St. Louis	-133	Houston	125	8	9	Win
06/05/12	San Francisco	-109	San Diego	103	5	6	Win
06/06/12	St. Louis	-134	Houston	126	4	3	Lost
06/06/12	San Francisco	-115	San Diego	108	6	5	Lost
06/07/12	NY Mets	-119	Washington	112	3	1	Lost
06/25/12	Chi. White Sox	-106	Minnesota	100	1	4	Win
06/26/12	Chi. White Sox	-113	Minnesota	106	3	2	Lost
06/26/12	LA Dodgers	-113	San Francisco	106	0	2	Win
06/27/12	Oakland	-106	Seattle	100	2	1	Lost
06/30/12	Kansas City	-130	Minnesota	122	1	5	Win
06/30/12	Washington	-136	Atlanta	128	5	7	Win
06/30/12	Philadelphia	-114	Miami	107	2	3	Win
07/03/12	NY Yankees	-107	Tampa Bay	101	4	7	Win
07/04/12	Philadelphia	-135	NY Mets	127	9	2	Lost
07/06/12	Atlanta	-116	Philadelphia	109	5	0	Lost
07/06/12	Milwaukee	-138	Houston	130	7	1	Lost
07/06/12	LA Dodgers	-108	Arizona	102	3	5	Win
07/08/12	Seattle	-109	Oakland	103	1	2	Win
07/13/12	Chi. White Sox	-106	Kansas City	100	9	8	Lost
07/14/12	Chi. White Sox	-119	Kansas City	112	3	6	Win
07/14/12	Texas	-115	Seattle	108	0	7	Win
07/14/12	Washington	-115	Miami	108	1	2	Win
07/15/12	Washington	-138	Miami	130	4	0	Lost
07/16/12	Washington	-106	Miami	100	3	5	Win
07/17/12	Texas	-113	Oakland	106	6	1	Lost
07/17/12	St. Louis	-110	Milwaukee	104	2	3	Win
07/18/12	Texas	-133	Oakland	125	3	4	Win
07/21/12	Chi. White Sox	-116	Detroit	109	1	7	Win
07/21/12	Texas	-118	LA Angels	111	9	2	Lost
07/22/12	Colorado	-111	San Diego	105	2	3	Win
07/22/12	Texas	-111	LA Angels	105	4	7	Win
07/23/12	Washington	-134	NY Mets	126	8	2	Lost
07/24/12	Atlanta	-108	Miami	102	4	3	Lost
07/24/12	Detroit	-118	Cleveland	111	2	3	Win
07/24/12	Cincinnati	-131	Houston	123	4	2	Lost
07/25/12	Tampa Bay	-135	Baltimore	127	10	1	Lost
07/25/12	Detroit	-133	Cleveland	125	5	3	Lost
07/25/12	Atlanta	-115	Miami	108	7	1	Lost
07/26/12	Tampa Bay	-113	Baltimore	106	2	6	Win
07/27/12	Philadelphia	-114	Atlanta	107	1	6	Win
07/28/12	LA Dodgers	-113	San Francisco	106	10	0	Lost
07/28/12	Cleveland	-124	Minnesota	117	5	12	Win
07/29/12	LA Dodgers	-113	San Francisco	106	4	0	Lost
07/29/12	Pittsburgh	-134	Houston	126	5	9	Win
07/30/12	Chi. White Sox	-123	Minnesota	116	6	7	Win
07/30/12	Pittsburgh	-119	Chi. Cubs	112	4	14	Win
08/01/12	Chi. White Sox	-116	Minnesota	109	3	2	Lost
08/01/12	Cleveland	-111	Kansas City	105	2	5	Win
08/01/12	Pittsburgh	-121	Chi. Cubs	114	8	4	Lost
08/06/12	Atlanta	-113	Philadelphia	106	6	1	Lost
08/07/12	LA Angels	-134	Oakland	126	4	10	Win
08/07/12	Cincinnati	-111	Milwaukee	105	1	3	Win
08/08/12	Cincinnati	-138	Milwaukee	130	2	3	Win
08/10/12	NY Yankees	-133	Toronto	125	10	4	Lost
08/10/12	Atlanta	-108	NY Mets	102	4	0	Lost
08/10/12	Cincinnati	-135	Chi. Cubs	127	10	8	Lost
08/10/12	Milwaukee	-110	Houston	104	3	4	Win
08/11/12	Atlanta	-111	NY Mets	105	9	3	Lost
08/11/12	Cincinnati	-128	Chi. Cubs	121	4	2	Lost
08/12/12	Atlanta	-109	NY Mets	103	5	6	Win
08/13/12	Detroit	-134	Minnesota	126	3	9	Win
08/15/12	Philadelphia	-124	Miami	117	2	9	Win
08/16/12	Boston	-131	Baltimore	123	6	3	Lost
08/19/12	Chi. White Sox	-106	Kansas City	100	2	5	Win
08/19/12	San Francisco	-123	San Diego	116	1	7	Win
08/24/12	Washington	-117	Philadelphia	110	2	4	Win
08/25/12	St. Louis	-109	Cincinnati	103	2	8	Win
08/26/12	St. Louis	-127	Cincinnati	120	8	2	Lost

texan · 08-29-12, 10:51 AM

Review of this strategy (Divisional Home Teams):

I have checked this strategy with other sports; NBA, NHL and NFL and the results are simply not that good. Only about 49% to 50% wins. Therefore it appears that this only works with MLB.

The Theory:
Divisional teams play each other more often and therefore are more familiar with each other; the players, ball parks etc. You bet of teams that have a pretty good shot at winning. Don't bet on long shots.

The Strategy:

1- Look for divisional games in which the home team is the underdog.
2- I bet on games in which the home team have odds of less than +120. They have a pretty good shot at winning.
3- I avoid games in which the home team has either made the playoffs or have been eliminated. These team seem to let up because they have already either made it to the playoffs or have been eliminated. The playoff teams want to avoid injury and the eliminated team want to check out new players for next year. So they don't seem to play with the same intensity.

The Pro's:
1- You bet less to make more. For example: if there is a game say Houston at +120 playing Chicago Cubs in Houston, you risk $100 to win $120. What this means is if you win the Houston game and lose the next game -$100, you are still up $20. If you are only win 50% of these games you are still profitable.
2- No need to check other stat's just look for divisional games in which the home team is the underdog and have odds less than +120.
3- This strategy is very basic and simple. No need to have someone tell you (or pay someone) which games to bet on. Just look for those games that meet the strategy requirements. It's like the saying: "Give a man a fish and he is eats for the day but teach him to fish and he eats for a lifetime".

The Con's:
1- Don't know if this is really a con but there will not be a many bets because you are only betting on divisional games in which the home team is the underdog with odds less than +120. You will have times in which you will have no bets, then there are times where you will have 4 bets in one day. During the first half of the season there are several weeks in which there is inter-league play so there are no bets during that time.

Good luck to you and think about next year's season.

MM Discipline · 08-29-12, 10:57 AM

Yup today is one of those days with a bunch of Home divisional dogs for example. Cool thread by the way keep it up and I'll be looking for it next season!

Kevin Garnett · 06-22-13, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by texan

Hi Roscoe,

I will try to go to covers for past year's data. I get this from their MLB Consensus Picks. I simply copy the table from the site and paste it into a spreadsheet. The most time consuming part of this process is getting the data because I have to go to each individual day to get the games, odds etc. then go to ESPN for the scores. I use a firefox addon called Table to Clipboard to copy the table and pasting it into the spreadsheet. Once the data is in the spreadsheet I have tables and formulas to do the calculations.

Have you checked the last years with this system? It would be interesting if the unit rate rise or not, 25 units is ok for a winning system, but if it goes under 10 units or in the losses it is not good to keep it up.

Btw, does someone know a site where all divisional games (2 divisional teams) can be selected of the present and the past? I only know something like that where is an overview of all games with minium one divisional team, here: http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/schedules/ this is not so bad but there also games with only one divisional team and that suc.ks to sort it out over long time. Hope someone can help.

As of	Percent	Total	Profit Loss	Profit Loss
7/29/12	Wins	Bets	5% Bets	10% Bets
Less than +110	61.11%	72	2487.54	4896.66
Less than +120	59.60%	99	2916.51	8007.34
Less than +130	54.81%	135	2583.97	5724.88