[Flamers]

First off, when you bet Baseball. Be carefull on what you do. Don't bet $500 bucks a game. Some good sites are BETJAMAICA, sportsinteraction, and Pinnacle.

Stick with the $100 3-4 team parlay with my picks. You will be surprised by the end of the week, and in 3 weeks you could be up $20,000 just like that.

---

Stay with the contenders. NEVER go for the upset. Like don't bet against the Yankees/Cardinals/Red Sox.

Bet them.

Those sites give great lines that overall you could get a 4.5/5.2 and with a $100 bet you could with yourself $300/$400

Afternoon games / NEVER bet the visitors unless it's weekends. MLB players have a tough time travelling weekdays for afternoon games, except for weekends. There is a big difference.

Also NEVER bet interleague!

The worst time to bet Baseball is April

NEVER bet September! and playoffs forget about it. This is when the bookies make the profit they got even or lost.

Also. Stay away from certain teams at home. Tampa Bay, Texas, Washington are dangerous to bet against at home.

My picks are next!

[bigboydan]

first off, let me welcome you to the SBRforum

i wish i could agree on your parlay theroy, but i can't. anyways, i wish you well on your up and comming baseball season

[Flamers]

bigboydan. What part do you not agree. And what is your gameplan? Example?

Thanks

[bigboydan]

i don't care for betting parlays at all. i can maybe see a 2-teamer, but not 3 or 4 teamers.

[maritime]

I disagree with most of your comments.

To win over time, straight bets are your best bet. Simple mathematics & probabilities can prove this.

Staying with contenders can also get you nowhere, especially as the season progresses. We all know the Yankees lines will be -200 to -300 when they hit stride. Betting the Yanks everygame last season would have lost you a significant amount of $$. This is well documented. Check donbest.com archives.

As for interleague, I look forward to it, because I find that oddsmakers are less familiar with the matchups and you can find some looser lines with value.

As for April, many good cappers I know, love April for the same reason...loose lines with value. Lines clearly tighten as the season goes on and the "elite" teams & pitchers become overvalued. So betting dogs becomes more valuable.

[Flamers]

then you must bet lots of cash for a 2 teaser. First off, where do you bet? and what was your bet today and for how much?

Why not just do a 3/4 game teaser for $100. You could find some nice spots in a schedule to get a good 4 game teaser and place a bet for $500, and win a nicely $8,000 payout.

2 teaser you will only win $80.

Unless you bet $500 to win $500!

Let me know!

[bigboydan]

i don't bet parlays at all bud. i feel they are sucker bets personaly. i know the math guys will differ on my opinion, but thats my opinion is all.

[Flamers]

Yankees will not be favoured at a -300. Maybe -200. This is why you don't bet them in a 2 game teaser, but try 4-5.

[maritime]

Am I missing something? baseball teasers? Do mean alternative runlines?

My bets for today are posted in best bets thread (before games started)
I use pinnacle, jamaica, and occ. underdog at Bodog
I like Cris but not for baseball.

[Flamers]

bigboy so you bet $10, or $100 a game. More detail!

[Winston Smith]

I keep waiting for the punchline....

[mlwitchking]

i just don't understand why i should bet parlays. if i think three teams will win, shouldn't i bet straight on them?

[Flamers]

mlwitchking. How much do you bet?

You wanna bet $500 for 3 or $1500 for 3?

You could look at it like you have 3 choices to win, during 3 different days, and if you coordinate your dates, you can get a entire series.

[Winston Smith]

You wanna bet $500 for 3 or $1500 for 3?

If you lose one team on your parlay, you're out 1 unit.

If you lose one of your straight bets, you're still up.

Not really a difficult decision.

[jumper]

to win at baseball i believe you must focus on underdogs.the quickest way to blow out an acct is to bet -200 etc...thats why books offering 20 cent lines will be same on favorites number but way off pinny,etc on the dogs number.also a lot of baseball sharps tune in on the total.i guess everyone has an opinion on how to win

[mlwitchking]

for games with very slight favorites (-130 or less), should you just pick the team you think should win instead of only underdogs??

[Flamers]

depending on what team. If the Yankees are playing and your in a middle of a parlay find.

THEN PLAY YANKEES

But say the White Sox are playing Orioles, and the Orioles are are at home -200. It's not worth it.

If the Yanks are home against the White Sox and are -220.

Play the Yanks.

But don't use the Yanks Straight Up. Only parlay.

[Flamers]

Total is fine, if there non divisional leaders. Right now you take the A's Mariners series. Don't take +8.5 over but go with +7.5 over for the 2nd leg of the series.

If the Yanks are playing Red Sox, the over/under should be 8.5. Take over after the first game. If it moves up, stay away.

April is tough to play total.

But when June comes along, it gets easier.

Take the Twins on the road. Santana will lose 2-3 games by mid May, guarenteed.
In June, the Twins on the road will move Santana in the rotation for road games because he starts pitching better and using more pitches when the weather gets warm, and they feel he can steal 6-7 games in the summer on the road.

So take the Twins WIN -160 road probably. Stay away from total.

[darkghost]

I keep waiting for the punchline....

lmao

The randomness of it all just overwhelmed me. And I think the name says it all.

[Illusion]

Stay with the contenders. NEVER go for the upset. Like don't bet against the Yankees/Cardinals/Red Sox

I'm sorry, but this has to be the dumbest thing I have ever read. Are you serious? Do you have stats to back this? Teams like the Yankees always lose money. Please tell me you are kidding, lol.

[juuso]

I really disagree with most of your advice. What's the point betting only on moslty short priced teams that you mentioned as contenders? There is often good spot taking favorites, but IMO it's all about finding value odds and betting against big public favorites will give much better results in the long run.

[imgv94]

Why does everyone say even bad handicappers win in baseball? I keep
hearing even a dummy can win betting baseball?? That
it is easy?

[Illusion]

I really disagree with most of your advice. What's the point betting only on moslty short priced teams that you mentioned as contenders? There is often good spot taking favorites, but IMO it's all about finding value odds and betting against big public favorites will give much better results in the long run.

Exactly, you will make more money betting teams like TB and KC than you will NYY and StL.

[bigboydan]

well, TB and KC aren't the best teams to use for an example, but you guys are both right.

[Alamorich]

You have to take some shot with dogs...just can't win over the long run playing small favorites and you'll definately get killed playing big favorites. I do think parlays have a place in baseball. I never play them in football and tried a few in baskeball and got killed but I have always played them in baseball here and there. Usually on a big card you can find a couple games worth sticking together. I might put two games together and back one of them straight up and keep my fingers crossed.

[imgv94]

I have been figuring out that betting anything -200 or worse is
just not worth it. I like parlays myself, but you have to know how
2 bet them, dont have more than 25% of your money on parlays,
and do more 2 team parlays then 3 or 4 team ones. I have made
huge money betting parlays!

Let me show you one example, I have a parlay going tomorrow
from Seattle -4(NBA) to Blue Jays(MLB) and it is paying +208
for 1 unit. So now I only risked 1 unit to make 2 units. Sounds
good to me.

[hanco21]

Thats why most sportsbooks call parlay sucker bets.

[imgv94]

parlays are far from sucker bets. Know many sharp fellas that make
tons of money betting parlays.

[Ganchrow]

To win over time, straight bets are your best bet. Simple mathematics & probabilities can prove this.

With all due respect maritime, this is completely untrue.

[Flamers]

Parlays are the way to go for baseball. If the White Sox could have kept the lead, I would have won $400 yesterday betting only $100.

If you straight the White Sox for $500 you would have burned that much, rather I have 5 more plays coming than you.

Everyday in Baseball you should put together a 5 or 6 team parlay for $50/$100 and you could win $3,000-$4,000.

You should be able to do this twice a week.

[The Great One]

I agree, if you are amrt with parlays they can be your friends especially on day where there is a ton of action like weekends in the fall. There are 15 MLB games and every team in college and pro football is playing. I love doing 9-12 team moneyline parlays there.

As far as sucker bets, they are if you are doing 5 or more team parlays trying to cash in on the spread. I found out the hardway when I first started doing this that doesn't pay. But've made 9K before on big moneyline parlay.

Parlays are all subjective bets in my opinion.

[The Great One]

to win at baseball i believe you must focus on underdogs.the quickest way to blow out an acct is to bet -200 etc...thats why books offering 20 cent lines will be same on favorites number but way off pinny,etc on the dogs number.also a lot of baseball sharps tune in on the total.i guess everyone has an opinion on how to win

I completely agree. I'm living proof that this is true. I've been hit hard on the Yanks in the past because once the summer starts they will be consistantly -250 and above.

[Flamers]

Yes that is true when they are -250 but NEVER go STRAIGHT UP, use them in a 3 team parlay, and bet $200, or $250.

A good parlay is 4-5 teams, and knock on $100

[The Great One]

Yes that is true when they are -250 but NEVER go STRAIGHT UP, use them in a 3 team parlay, and bet $200, or $250.

A good parlay is 4-5 teams, and knock on $100

Yeah, I do that. To me, it's kind of like icing on the cake taking a heavy favorite in a small parlay. Works well in all sports. You are not having to lay Fort Knox when you do that.

[maritime]

With all due respect maritime, this is completely untrue.

Thanks for setting me straight. I've read some of your previous posts. You seem to be a bit of a mathematician yourself. Obviously there are many factors involved, none greater than the individual handicapper's ability to pick winners.

Here is the math to which I was referring to:

Assume a starting bank roll of $880. You bet on 2 games each day. Odds on both are -110.

Doing straight bets to win 1 unit. You would bet total of $220. Disregarding handicapping skill and assuming these odds mean each team has a 50% chance of winning there are 4 possible outcomes. 25% chance you win both (+$200), 25% chance you lose both (-$220) and 50% chance you split (-$20). In the end, you lose total of $40. End bankroll is $840.

Now let's do parlays instead. Same bankroll of $880. So each parlay you bet $220. 75% chance you lose (-$660). 25% chance you win (+$582). In the end, you lose $78. End bankroll is $802.

This is what I was referring to. I can tell from your other posts you know what you're talking about. I know the math changes based on other factors. It's those "other factors" that may make parlays profitable for certain bettors.