MLB Player Props 2012

[tb1984]

Hello everyone,

For me, MLB is just unpredictable to bet(that's why I follow people in this forum for mlb picks), so I started betting player props last year and had some little success. I mostly play "no RBI" and "no run". Here are things that I consider for picking player props:

- Opponents pitchers are at least number 3 starters(based on my estimation), sometimes I play number 4 and 5 pitchers.

- Hitting order.

- Bat vs Pitch.

Note:
- Odds are usually from -150 to -200.
- Win or lose, it's just an experiment.

[tb1984]

04/27/2012

WAS A.LaRoche no run scored(-225), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

YTD: -2.25 unit

04/28/12

1:00 PM MIL A.Gonzalez no RBI(-185), 1 unit.
1:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-160), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

04/28/12 updated

1:00 PM MIL A.Gonzalez no RBI(-185), 1 unit.
1:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-160), 1 unit.
4:00 PM SEA D.Ackley no run scored(-160), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

04/28/12 updated

1:00 PM MIL A.Gonzalez no RBI(-185), 1 unit. Loser
1:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-160), 1 unit.
4:00 PM SEA D.Ackley no run scored(-160), 1 unit.
7:00 PM CUB D.DeJesus no run scored(-145), 1 unit.
7:00 PM PIT A.Presley no RBI(-250), 1 unit.
7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
7:00 PM OAK J.Weeks no run scored(-155), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

Added CWS A.Dunn no run scored(-185)
04/28/12 updated

1:00 PM MIL A.Gonzalez no RBI(-185), 1 unit. Loser
1:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-160), 1 unit. Loser
4:00 PM SEA D.Ackley no run scored(-160), 1 unit.
7:00 PM CUB D.DeJesus no run scored(-145), 1 unit.
7:00 PM PIT A.Presley no RBI(-250), 1 unit.
7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
7:00 PM OAK J.Weeks no run scored(-155), 1 unit.
7:00 PM CWS A.Dunn no run scored(-185), 2 unit.

[tb1984]

Added SDG C.Maybin no run scored(-195), SFO B.Crawford no RBI(-215)
04/28/12 updated

1:00 PM MIL A.Gonzalez no RBI(-185), 1 unit. Loser
1:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-160), 1 unit. Loser
4:00 PM SEA D.Ackley no run scored(-160), 1 unit.
7:00 PM CUB D.DeJesus no run scored(-145), 1 unit.
7:00 PM PIT A.Presley no RBI(-250), 1 unit.
7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
7:00 PM OAK J.Weeks no run scored(-155), 1 unit.
7:00 PM CWS A.Dunn no run scored(-185), 2 unit.
9:00 PM SFO B.Crawford no RBI(-215), 1 unit.
9:00 PM SDG C.Maybin no run scored(-195), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

04/28/12 updated

1:00 PM MIL A.Gonzalez no RBI(-185), 1 unit. Loser
1:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-160), 1 unit. Loser
4:00 PM SEA D.Ackley no run scored(-160), 1 unit. Winner
7:00 PM CUB D.DeJesus no run scored(-145), 1 unit. Winner
7:00 PM PIT A.Presley no RBI(-250), 1 unit. Loser
7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no run scored(-175), 1 unit. Winner
7:00 PM OAK J.Weeks no run scored(-155), 1 unit. Winner
7:00 PM CWS A.Dunn no run scored(-185), 2 units. Winner
9:00 PM SFO B.Crawford no RBI(-215), 1 unit. Winner
9:00 PM SDG C.Maybin no run scored(-195), 1 unit. Winner

YTD: 7-4, + 0.4 units

[tb1984]

04/29/12

1:00 PM B.Boesch no RBI(-160), 1 unit.
1:00 PM SEA M.Saunders no RBI(-170), 1 unit.
1:00 PM MIA H.Ramirez no RBI(-190), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

Add ATL J.Heyward no RBI(-180)
04/29/12 updated

1:00 PM B.Boesch no RBI(-160), 1 unit.
1:00 PM SEA M.Saunders no RBI(-170), 1 unit.
1:00 PM MIA H.Ramirez no RBI(-190), 1 unit.
1:30 PM ATL J.Heyward no RBI(-180), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

Add WAS D.Espinosa no run scored
04/29/12 updated

1:00 PM B.Boesch no RBI(-160), 1 unit.
1:00 PM SEA M.Saunders no RBI(-170), 1 unit.
1:00 PM MIA H.Ramirez no RBI(-190), 1 unit.
1:30 PM ATL J.Heyward no RBI(-180), 1 unit.
4:00 PM WAS D.Espinosa no run scored(-185), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

Add TAM C.Pena no RBI(-195)
04/29/12 updated

1:00 PM B.Boesch no RBI(-160), 1 unit. - Winner
1:00 PM SEA M.Saunders no RBI(-170), 1 unit. - Winner
1:00 PM MIA H.Ramirez no RBI(-190), 1 unit. - Winner
1:30 PM ATL J.Heyward no RBI(-180), 1 unit. - Winner4:00 PM WAS D.Espinosa no run scored(-185), 1 unit. - Winner
8:00 PM TAM C.Pena no RBI(-195), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

04/29/12 updated

1:00 PM B.Boesch no RBI(-160), 1 unit. - Winner
1:00 PM SEA M.Saunders no RBI(-170), 1 unit. - Winner
1:00 PM MIA H.Ramirez no RBI(-190), 1 unit. - Winner
1:30 PM ATL J.Heyward no RBI(-180), 1 unit. - Winner
4:00 PM WAS D.Espinosa no run scored(-185), 1 unit. - Winner
8:00 PM TAM C.Pena no RBI(-195), 1 unit. - Winner

YTD: 13-4, +5.8 units

[tb1984]

YTD: 13-4, +5.8 units

04/30/12

12:30 PM ARI J.Kubel no RBI(-160), 1 unit.

[crackerjack]

The most telling stat was you were 7-4 and up less than a half unit. The high cheese is going to hurt in the long run. Where do you play these?

[tb1984]

The most telling stat was you were 7-4 and up less than a half unit. The high cheese is going to hurt in the long run. Where do you play these?

Actually, I was down .2 unit at 7-4(mistake in calculation). I agree with you that those high odds(greater -200) are going hurt, but we'll see(I kind of try to stay away, but can't resist). I play these at 5dimes under Baseball -> Props, other books should also have them.

[tb1984]

Add CUB D.Barney no run scored(-175), SEA J.Montero no RBI(-150), MIN D.Valencia no RBI(-185)
04/30/12

12:30 PM ARI J.Kubel no RBI(-160), 1 unit. NO Action
7:00 PM CUB D.Barney no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
7:00 PM SEA J.Montero no RBI(-150), 1 unit.
10:00PM MIN D.Valencia no RBI(-185), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

04/30/12 Updated

12:30 PM ARI J.Kubel no RBI(-160), 1 unit. NO Action
7:00 PM CUB D.Barney no run scored(-175), 1 unit. No Action
7:00 PM SEA J.Montero no RBI(-150), 1 unit. Loser
10:00PM MIN D.Valencia no RBI(-185), 1 unit. Loser

YTD: 13-6, +2.45 units

It was unlucky, Montero got the RBI with a solo home run in the 11th. Valencia got the RBI with a single in his last at bat with two outs and two strikes.

[tb1984]

YTD: 13-6, +2.45 units

05/01/12

7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no run scored(-180), 1 unit.
7:00 PM CUB D.DeJesus no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
7:00 PM SEA J.Montero no RBI(-165), 1 unit.
7:00 PM ATL F.Freeman no run scored(-165), 1 unit.
8:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-205), 1 unit.
8:00 PM STL R.Furcal no RBI(-205), 1 unit.
8:00 PM PIT P.Alvarez no run scored(-185), 1 unit.
10:00 PM MIA G.Sanchez no RBI(-185), 1 unit.

Big card today.

[crackerjack]

I am going to watch these tonight. Good luck!

[tb1984]

Add 1 more unit for MIA G.Sanchez no RBI(-185)

05/01/12 updated

7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no run scored(-180), 1 unit.
7:00 PM CUB D.DeJesus no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
7:00 PM SEA J.Montero no RBI(-165), 1 unit.
7:00 PM ATL F.Freeman no run scored(-165), 1 unit.
8:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-205), 1 unit.
8:00 PM STL R.Furcal no RBI(-205), 1 unit.
8:00 PM PIT P.Alvarez no run scored(-185), 1 unit.
10:00 PM MIA G.Sanchez no RBI(-185), 2 units.

[tb1984]

I am going to watch these tonight. Good luck!

Thank you.

[crackerjack]

Better hope sanchez doesn't score or you will have taken a beating. Do you ever look at the yes side?

[tb1984]

Better hope sanchez doesn't score or you will have taken a beating. Do you ever look at the yes side?

Yeah, I hope so to save the day. Really bad so far. No, I rarely play the yes side.

[tb1984]

05/01/12 updated

7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no run scored(-180), 1 unit. Winner
7:00 PM CUB D.DeJesus no run scored(-175), 1 unit. No Action
7:00 PM SEA J.Montero no RBI(-165), 1 unit. Winner
7:00 PM ATL F.Freeman no run scored(-165), 1 unit. Loser
8:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-205), 1 unit. No Action
8:00 PM STL R.Furcal no RBI(-205), 1 unit. Loser
8:00 PM PIT P.Alvarez no run scored(-185), 1 unit. Loser
10:00 PM MIA G.Sanchez no RBI(-185), 2 units. Winner

3-3 for the day, -1.55 units

YTD: 16-9, +.9 unit

[crackerjack]

Looks like a lot of fun to play these props but I doubt you could be successful without playing the yes side because the juice is so high on the no side.

[tb1984]

Looks like a lot of fun to play these props but I doubt you could be successful without playing the yes side because the juice is so high on the no side.

Yeah, it's fun because it's pretty much an one on one battle between batter and pitcher. I think I'm a square so I kind of don't like playing the yes side. But, I'll just keep doing it for a while, and see how it works out. Thank you for your inputs and comments.

[crackerjack]

I'm not saying switch completely to the yes side...just mix a few plays in here and there. If you find two you like at +160 all you need to hit is one to show a profit. It you play two at -180 you have to hit both or you're down almost a whole unit. Just my unsoliticited advice...seems like long term betting only heavy faves is a losing proposition.

[tb1984]

YTD: 16-9, +.9 unit

05/02/12

12:30 PM TEX N.Cruz no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
12:30 PM TEX I.Kinsler hits under 1½(-170), .5 unit.

[tb1984]

I'm not saying switch completely to the yes side...just mix a few plays in here and there. If you find two you like at +160 all you need to hit is one to show a profit. It you play two at -180 you have to hit both or you're down almost a whole unit. Just my unsoliticited advice...seems like long term betting only heavy faves is a losing proposition.

I agree with you. But sometimes, when I think a yes side will hit, I would rather not playing it. I don't have that mentality to pull the trigger. I really appreciate your advise.

[tb1984]

Add KAN E.Hosmer no run scored(-155), NYM K.Nieuwenhuis no run scored(-155), COL M.Scutaro no run scored(-160)

05/02/12 updated

12:30 PM TEX N.Cruz no run scored(-175), 1 unit.
12:30 PM TEX I.Kinsler hits under 1½(-170), .5 unit.
1:00 PM KAN E.Hosmer no run scored(-155), 2 units.
2:00 PM NYM K.Nieuwenhuis no run scored(-155), 1 unit.
3:00 PM COL M.Scutaro no run scored(-160), 1 unit.

[tb1984]

Add SDG C.Maybin no run scored(-150)
05/02/12 updated

12:30 PM TEX N.Cruz no run scored(-175), 1 unit. Winner
12:30 PM TEX I.Kinsler hits under 1½(-170), .5 unit. Winner
1:00 PM KAN E.Hosmer no run scored(-155), 2 units. Winner
2:00 PM NYM K.Nieuwenhuis no run scored(-155), 1 unit. Winner
3:00 PM COL M.Scutaro no run scored(-160), 1 unit. No Action
6:30 PM SDG C.Maybin no run scored(-150), 1 unit.

Good day so far. I'll add more later on.

[crackerjack]

Does a player have to start? Scutaro pinch hit and scored...still no action? Nice work so far.

[tb1984]

Add ARI A.Hill no RBI(-195), WAS D.Espinosa no run scored(-160), PHI J.Rollins no run scored(-170), SEA M.Saunders no RBI(-175), CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-175), MIN D.Span no RBI(-240), MIN J.Carroll no run scored(-145)

05/02/12 updated

12:30 PM TEX N.Cruz no run scored(-175), 1 unit. Winner
12:30 PM TEX I.Kinsler hits under 1½(-170), .5 unit. Winner
1:00 PM KAN E.Hosmer no run scored(-155), 2 units. Winner
2:00 PM NYM K.Nieuwenhuis no run scored(-155), 1 unit. Winner
3:00 PM COL M.Scutaro no run scored(-160), 1 unit. No Action
6:30 PM SDG C.Maybin no run scored(-150), 1 unit.
7:00 PM ARI A.Hill no RBI(-195), 1 unit.
7:00 PM WAS D.Espinosa no run scored(-160), 1 unit.
7:00 PM PHI J.Rollins no run scored(-170), .5 unit.
7:00 PM SEA M.Saunders no RBI(-175), 1 unit.
8:00 PM CLE J.Hannahan no RBI(-175), 1 unit.
10:00 PM MIN D.Span no RBI(-240), 1 unit.
10:00 PM MIN J.Carroll no run scored(-145), 2 units.

[tb1984]

Does a player have to start? Scutaro pinch hit and scored...still no action? Nice work so far.

Yes, that's correct. A player must start. Thank you, I hope that winning just keeps coming.