MLB Best Bets: Thursday September 25th, 2008

[Illusion]

Share your best bets for Thursday.

Please use American style pricing (Ex: -150 +130)

Make sure you post a line for all bets and good luck!

[Wilforth]

Both lines from Betjamaica

Reds +180
Yankees FF +165

[tab]

Cardinals/D-Backs over 9 (-115)

Joel Pineiro's #'s in day games (2005-2008)
2005 - 0-5 record, 7.67 era, 54 innings, 75 hits, 46 runs, 14 walks, 8 hr
2006 - 1-5 record, 6.34 era, 49.2 innings, 62 hits, 38 runs, 23 walks, 7 hr
2007 - 2-3 record, 6.95 era, 22 innings, 31 hits, 17 runs, 6 walks, 6 hr
2008- 0-3 record, 6.00 era, 45 innings, 57 hits, 32 runs, 12 walks, 7 hr

Pineiro's only start against dbacks (2008)
5 innings, 6 hits, 2 walks, 3 hr, 4 runs (dbacks won 8-6)

Davis' numbers in day games in 2008
6 starts, 0-4, 28 innings, 35 hits, 15 walks, 6.11 era, .310 BA, 1.79 whip

both starting pitchers have struggled in day games especially Pineiro. I get the feeling that the dbacks have their backs to the wall and will try give Davis a lead. Dbacks have really struggled at the plate of late and I see this game as an opportunity to break out of their slump. My prediction is that both teams will score at least 5 runs each in this game. Any thoughts on this game.

Another lean is dbacks team total over 4.5 runs (-110)

[onlooker]

961 Padres +115

[tab]

961 Padres +115

As soon as the dbacks lose to the cardinals tommorrow, I will be all over the padres in this game. Dodgers will rest a lot of starters. I like Peavy on 10+ days of rest. PEavy will go all out trying to win. I think he pitches a complete game.

Another strong lean:

Dodgers team total under 3.5 runs

[nysmoneyman]

cubs -117 x5

[Western]

Giants v Rockies Under 8.5

[Ralphie1412]

Im on the over in the padres/dodgers game and leaning dodgers.......ALSO

Why is there no lines out for the tampa detroit noon game? Tampas magic number is 1, detroit is awful. Ill be on Tampa.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

both starting pitchers have struggled in day games especially Pineiro. I get the feeling that the dbacks have their backs to the wall and will try give Davis a lead. Dbacks have really struggled at the plate of late and I see this game as an opportunity to break out of their slump. My prediction is that both teams will score at least 5 runs each in this game. Any thoughts on this game.

Toughie - pitcher data you produce suggests over. However, on the other side of the coin, these are the lowest scoring teams in mlb over last month, and have (unsurprisingly) produced a huge number of unders in that time.

Cardinals also have a massive tendency to under results in midweek (eg O18-U41 on Thursdays last three seasons, and 6-15 this season). I've no idea why this is, but it's clearly beyond coincidence with that ratio.

More understandably, they also tend to under results against lefty pitchers (20-30 this season, 68-91 last three).


Arizona are a more conventional 50/50 O/U team, on pretty much any record/marker you look at. Suggests to me the books have their contribution to totals pretty spot on, but often overestimate Cardinals.

[Chi_archie]

good data so far everyone.... gonna continue to dig on this one a little bit...

[LT Profits]

Reds +176 (WSEX)
Reds/Astros UNDER 7.5 -115 (Greek)
Angels -118 (DSI)

[$$POOLCRAZY$$$$]

ya'll should wait for post season..that'll be a lil easier ta nail dis chyt

[soni]

tigers +120

[bostonbruins]

Rays-131 2.5u

[soni]

dbacks -105

[George]

ARZ o9 - 130
MIL RL - 115

[artie81]

D backs (even)

[Illusion]

Wednesday 09/24/08 Results:

yisman: 3-0 +13.60
nysmoneyman: 1-0 +5.00
George: 2-0 +2.15
soni: 1-1 +1.03
Illusion: 1-0 +1.00
brock: 1-0 +1.00
Western: 1-0 +1.00
Wilforth: 1-1 +0.28
BadFinger: 1-1 +0.20
onlòóker: 0-1 -1.00
tab: 1-2 -1.40
artie81: 1-2 -1.47
bostonbruins: 2-2 -1.85
LT Profits: 2-4 -2.00
The HOFF: 0-1 -3.43
Weezy F.: 0-1 -10.20

[BadFinger]

reds +175 5dimes
reds/astros u 7.5 -113 matchbook

[Illusion]

Chicago White Sox +135

[SportsG]

Yankees/BJays O8

[yisman]

San Diego Padres +110 4 units
Pittsburgh Pirates +200 2 units

[tab]

Padres -118 10 units
wow this line has jumped and now padres are the favorite.

[yisman]

Mets +105 10 units (BetJamaica)

[yisman]

Mets-Cubs UNDER 8 (even)

[yisman]

to clarify: the line is even, I want to put 6 units on the bet.

[ronniejamedio]

I got the padres at +120 last night. I was actually banking on st louis to win theirs, there for getting me a good play

[Mr Nuts]

Twins -1.5 +140