Dexter's 2012 MLB Plays

[Dexter]

will there be A1-A3 in the playoffs ?

should be a few - here were last years auto plays in the playoffs:

A1: 0-1
A2: None
A3: 4-1
A4: 2-4

[fitguy67]

anybody lookin' to place the det/oak,u7.5 now...but waiting for the price to come down from the -120ish level...if u got a WilHill account, pounce now on their -110 "sore thumb" price

________

damn...the "flashing blue light" on that Kmart special just went out...they jumped to up -115...while everything that was in the -120s a few mins ago backed down to -115ish...books ain't dumb...when they want a bit more action on one side...they'll leave a stale price hang around for a while...knowing smart shoppers using comparison hubs will pounce...when they got the amount they needed to get their net exposure on a play to where they want it...down goes the "for sale" sign as they get back into their usual place in line with the others by "freshening" up their line

[Trivial]

[Dexter]

Sunday 10/7:

(2u) Over Tigers/A's 7.5 (A4-Wegner)
(1u) Cardinals -110
(1u) Orioles +150

[Dexter]

wow - 0-1 and the catcher stands up asking for a waste pitch...you got your waste pitch

and of course posey then gets blown away...

[jcygts6]

Such a sloppy ending to the giants game

[WVU9494]

Ugh dude, had a lot on it, very good call

[r1kkie]

Sunday 10/7:

(2u) Over Tigers/Indians 7.5 (A4-Wegner)
(1u) Cardinals -110
(1u) Orioles +150

You mean Tigers/A's right?

[Trivial]

Line for DET going in opposite direction. For me, this is a good sign. All my "right" wagers this year that I beat the closer to hell on NYY and/or DET - I lost.

So for me, I'm almost happy to see the opposite in a very weird, self destruct sort of way.

GL today all.

Trivial.

[fitguy67]

Line for DET going in opposite direction. For me, this is a good sign. All my "right" wagers this year that I beat the closer to hell on NYY and/or DET - I lost.

So for me, I'm almost happy to see the opposite in a very weird, self destruct sort of way.

GL today all.

Trivial.

It's a subconscious healthy respect for "the law giver", Mr. Murphy=appreciation of the fact that "anything can happen...and does"...despite how neatly the matchup-metric/linemove-dynamic "tea leaves" line up in our cup...or how "confident" we feel. (It's the reason why i put equal amounts on all bets...i hate going 3-1 and losing, cuz the "wrong" one loses.)

[Trivial]

Indeed, I do have respect for Mr. Murphy (I think it is a she, not a he, but that is slightly being sexist). However, be careful with equal bets. Look at Dexter's record this year. If Dexter put equal amounts on all wagers, Dexter may barely be up, or even be down, depending on the juice of each wager. There are few capers out there that would agree equal wagers on all is profitable long term.

[fitguy67]

Indeed, I do have respect for Mr. Murphy (I think it is a she, not a he, but that is slightly being sexist). However, be careful with equal bets. Look at Dexter's record this year. If Dexter put equal amounts on all wagers, Dexter may barely be up, or even be down, depending on the juice of each wager. There are few capers out there that would agree equal wagers on all is profitable long term.

Good point...differing PERCEIVED ev's (aka. confidence) of plays (hence their assignment into different bet-size categories) for most cappers is done quite subjectively...but with Dex' systems approach...i admit they ARE based objectively on (continuously-updated) historical win % of each different "deck" that the plays are being "dealt" from...some better than others, calling for differing bet sizes...enter Mr. Kelly to encourage me to do what Ms. Murphy (i'll follow your lead on this one...and picture "her" henceforth as a hi-maintenance hottie) worries me about...interesting...worthy of a much closer look over the off-season

[Dexter]

ok, thats the first and last time i bet an over in the playoffs....i dont care about A4. this is painful....

[r1kkie]

ok, thats the first and last time i bet an over in the playoffs....i dont care about A4. this is painful....

Wow 13 hits and only 3 points. :/

Now we are talking!

BOOM 4 - 4!

What was that about the overs Dex?

[Trivial]

Cashola. Nice !

Congrats to all !

[Dexter]

wild pitch wins it...how ironic

[r1kkie]

wild pitch wins it...how ironic

You got to be lucky sometimes...

[nervousTic]

dex any play the late game? thx

[Dexter]

Sunday 10/7:

(2u) Over Tigers/A's 7.5 (A4-Wegner)
(1u) Cardinals -110
(1u) Orioles +150

(2u) Under Giants/Cards 7

[Trivial]

Need to look at these games tonight. Looks like the overs in both games are being juiced in Vegas, although there is no lines yet on SBR.

[Bbfromgpt]

Yea I lean the over in the Cards game. Over 7 -130

[Bbfromgpt]

Up to 7.5

[Dexter]

9-0 final? just saw this now.....damn

[Dexter]

Monday 10/8:

(2u) Cardinals -110
(2u) Under Cardinals/Nationals 7.5

[Dexter]

Week 27: 11-7 (+11.55u)

A4: 3-1
T. Welke_1-0
D. Iassogna_0-1
L. Barksdale_1-0
G. Gibson_1-0
======================
YTD: 364-345 (+33.7u) *END OF REGULAR SEASON*

A1: 18-22 (-16.9u)
A2: 6-1
A3: 24-16
A4: 140-132
Sam Holbrook_19-10
Kerwin Danley_10-14
Scott Barry_14-13
Tim Welke_12-18
Mark Wegner_15-19
Lance Barksdale_20-12
Doug Eddings_16-15
Dan Iassogna_21-12
Greg Gibson_12-18

Playoffs Week 1: 3-5 (-7u)
A4: 1-0
M. Wegner_1-0
=========================
YTD: 367-350 (+26.7u)

A1: 18-22 (-16.9u)
A2: 6-1
A3: 24-16
A4: 141-132
Sam Holbrook_19-10
Kerwin Danley_10-14
Scott Barry_14-13
Tim Welke_12-18
Mark Wegner_16-19
Lance Barksdale_20-12
Doug Eddings_16-15
Dan Iassogna_21-12
Greg Gibson_12-18

[Dexter]

Tuesday 10/9:

(10u) Under Reds/Giants 8 (A3)
(2u) A's -130

[Dexter]

Monday 10/8:

(2u) Cardinals -110
(2u) Under Cardinals/Nationals 7.5

(2u) Yankees -130

[Dexter]

i really need to wake up and get with it - im a situational gambler and why i equally weighted the under and cards im still trying to figure out. the cards should have been pounded in this spot with the next 3 games in wash.

[No coincidences]

i really need to wake up and get with it - im a situational gambler and why i equally weighted the under and cards im still trying to figure out. the cards should have been pounded in this spot with the next 3 games in wash.

If that were the case, wouldn't Balty be the play tonight by the same standards?

[Dexter]

If that were the case, wouldn't Balty be the play tonight by the same standards?

yeah but i put the cards in a different class then the orioles. i feel the o's will look back on this season and call it a major success regardless if they get swept by the yankees - where as the cards were truly in a must win spot as they attempt to repeat.

[Dexter]

needless to say i am lost in this yankee series thus done trying to pick a side anymore....terrible.

[dodgerblue]

Let's get this A3 everyone! Hopefully Homer brings his A game.

[Trivial]

Let get this A3. I can feel good things.

[Dexter]

Let's get this A3 everyone! Hopefully Homer brings his A game.

I feel confident in him. Just hope vogelsong is ok. Feel 4-2 cincy win.

[Capybara]

How much do you guys like this A3? I'm 0-for-2 tailing these thus far -- do I go for 0-for-3?