Dexter's 2012 MLB Plays

[meyer0416]

under or over 9? my book is at 8.5, whats the A3 play?

[Dexter]

Dexter, stay focused. You are one of the few proven winners on this website.

pauul.....gonna miss you pal.

this is the first time in many many years i have not placed a bet....very weird. i am watching dateline right now and texting with a chick. haha

[dlunc3]

pauul.....gonna miss you pal.

this is the first time in many many years i have not placed a bet....very weird. i am watching dateline right now and texting with a chick. haha

you must be so bored

[dlunc3]

good for you though

[Dexter]

you must be so bored

yeah, just a little...lol

[dlunc3]

let me know what good tv shows you find... I watch dexter, shameless and breaking bad.. but too busy staring at scores every night to see what else good is on..

[Dexter]

ok....homeland is great. on right after dexter. season 2 starts this fall with dexter at the same time.

[Pross1]

ok....homeland is great. on right after dexter. season 2 starts this fall with dexter at the same time.

I love both of those shows. I've been trying to get everyone to watch Homeland.

[ebbearsfb1]

Hope you hang around here still dex, one of the cooler dudes here... I've tried quiting many times and its not easy, ... and tv shows... anyone watch ridculous nesss or, fantasy factory defintely good shows if your looking for a laugh... I don't have hbo or anything like that, need to find a good show on regular tv besides criminal minds

[WVU9494]

Just think Dexter, another a3 is about to lose so you are +10u without even laying a bet.

[Pauulzcappin]

I'm gonna DL homeland and watch it, sounds really great. If you want to keep in touch just send me your skype or something by inbox.

[atofsu32111]

Saunders sucks this system is a gonner

[Dexter]

Saunders sucks this system is a gonner

lol....you're such a clown. you were a whining/degenerate loser last year and you're the same confused idiot this year.

its not a "system" you idiotic clown.....but keep searching for that winning formula.

oh man - gonna be so nice not to have to converse with idiots like this...

bro - how much money are you down in the last 12 months? please be honest with us and yourself....

[Dexter]

That guy Perry just got called up from Minors lol way to Put him in on national tv and had a bad feeling at Harper stole home against veteran Phil. F U Pence. I

ouch - somebody put their rent money on A3 plays....

[atofsu32111]

you mad bro? haha I only put 50 bucks on your plays . I make real Like Tex.

[Dexter]

you mad bro? haha I only put 50 bucks on your plays . I make real Like Tex.

me mad? haha you have done nothing but come into my thread for 2 years making idiotic comments, asking the most mind blowing questions and make head scratching statements. i remember last year you were pm'ing me how upset you were that for 2 years you missed out on the A3 plays which hit 70% for 2 years in a row....now this year you decided to put $50 on them...
dont worry sweetheart, there are loansharks for degenerates like you.

you make real like Tex.......yeah, whatever the hell that means.

[Nova99]

Dexter, you can avoid the scores but I think you should still check your thread for entertainment value moving forward

[atofsu32111]

You seem mad. Why can I just state some truths like Saunders sucks? You gotta blast me for that?

[tb1984]

I've only tailed you for a short time, but it seems like it's very abrupt that you just want to stay away from gambling. Had you tried to stayed away before but could not? And now it's just the time?

[dlunc3]

me mad? haha you have done nothing but come into my thread for 2 years making idiotic comments, asking the most mind blowing questions and make head scratching statements. i remember last year you were pm'ing me how upset you were that for 2 years you missed out on the A3 plays which hit 70% for 2 years in a row....now this year you decided to put $50 on them...
dont worry sweetheart, there are loansharks for degenerates like you.

you make real like Tex.......yeah, whatever the hell that means.

I need one after these last few weeks.. been getting pounded... any loanshark recommendations?

strongly considering following you out the door... lost 15k in this past single week... keep telling myself odds have and always will hold up over time, and that these 9th inning blowups cant continue.. but wow... im gonna die of stress from these games by the time im 35

[Dexter]

You seem mad. Why can I just state some truths like Saunders sucks? You gotta blast me for that?

thats not what you said - you could never understand what i write and now you cant even comprehend your own writing.

I've only tailed you for a short time, but it seems like it's very abrupt that you just want to stay away from gambling. Had you tried to stayed away before but could not? And now it's just the time?

i never wanted to stay away.....now i want to. ive been thinking about it for the last year. funny, my most successful year as well. just proves to me that it wasn't about the money, but more or less to beat each sport. ncaa hoops was one i couldnt beat.

[fitguy67]

Dex, you are one of the small handful of "good guys" around SBR that I do NOT want to evaporate...


when u have time, watch this video if u haven't already...(it’s one that LTA posted a while back)…anyhow, I thought it a propos of your tendency to “beat yourself up” when the “negative variance” storms hit, as they inevitably will…

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

the most memorable (and most useful to the individual investor, IMO) part of it comes in the last 10 minutes
where Dr. Bob says (I’m paraphrasing very loosely here)…

*i never think in terms of "hot" and "cold"...just positive and negative variance...as long as i keep finding and buying value (what i can control)...i don't worry about the sequence of the wins and losses/the up days and the down days...because i know i'm on an upward (although guaranteed bumpy) path*...he also says something like
*when i'm what people call "hot" or when i'm what people call "cold"...i'm doing exactly the same thing...there's an illusion that when i'm hot, I'm "reading things" better than when i'm cold, but it's just an illusion...it's all just the ebb and flow of variance...like the flow of good and bad poker hands to an excellent poker player

___________________

I liken this to putting on lots of bets on black cards being peeled off a constantly-reshuffled deck at wonderfully fictitious book-odds of say +103 based on your "research" (basic knowledge in this case that the true odds should be +100)...the blacks (and reds) naturally go on runs that have nothing to do with the soundness of that analysis that concludes that each and every one of those black+103 bets is +eV...

you wouldn’t blame yourself for the dips, no more than you would take credit for the upsurges, would you? You simply take pride in being “sharp” enough to recognize and lock in each +ev play in succession, win or lose, and know enough to bet a small enough % of your roll on each play, so that you can withstand any runs of negative variance along the bumpy up-path with a long-term 3% yield.

__________________

so, bro...no need to get angry or even "get even"...just keep doin' what you've been doin and this mini-patch of "negative variance" will pass ...cuz you're dealing from a deck (actually several decks…one for each auto-play…and one for your “roll your owns”) much richer in winners than the break-even % implied by the odds ur getting...so we'll take out that last equity high soon enough

__________________

I'd like to suggest that rather than stopping betting and continuing to watch sports...i suggest you consider doing the opposite...administer your system, put on your bets...then do all those wonderful "other" things (including the most-obviously neglected hobby of all...horizontal dancing with the opposite gender) DURING game-time...that is INSTEAD of watching the game unfold you can be "getting into" something that always unfolds nicely into a happy ending...capiche...guaranteed u'll be more detached from the results when they occur, win or lose...it IS about the money...and all the cool life-enriching non-frustrating/non-money things u can do with it.

[atofsu32111]

Its still alive is it a tease? the under

[WVU9494]

Jesus, 4th A3 loss in a row.......

3-4 this year, a lot of winning coming up

[Zacharrr]

meh its just variance. anybody see any A3 today ?

[Dexter]

how did A4's do last night? if anyone is still following..lol

good post fitguy....i will watch that video today.

[Dexter]

wow....2 minutes into this video and its already giving me the itch....lol

shutting it down for now

[Dexter]

well FitGuy.....that video has done me in. im sitting here listening to this and getting completely amped as i deal with these MIT code writers of algos in my daily job.
sorry for the brett favre act, and apologizes to atofsu for snapping off last night. i dont see myself doing this forever, but i cant walk away after a week of dropping 40u in baseball. i would rather quit at the end of a winning season.
last year i was down about 20 or 30u at some point in baseball, so this is nothing out of the ordinary. it was just a really bad couple of days and i feel lucky to have sat out on a losing Monday.

[Dexter]

Week 4: 10-12 (+15.2u)

A1: 0-1 (-3.3u)
A3: 3-0
A4: 4-6
Dan Iassogna_2-0
Kerwin Danley_0-2
Doug Eddings_1-1
Tim Welke_1-0
Scott Barry_0-1
Greg Gibson_0-1
Lance Barksdale_0-1
__________________________
YTD: 31-35 (+13.15u)

A1: 0-1 (-3.3u)
A3: 3-0
A4: 19-20
Sam Holbrook_3-0
Kerwin Danley_2-3
Scott Barry_1-2
Tim Welke_3-3
Mark Wegner_1-3
Lance Barksdale_2-2
Doug Eddings_3-3
Dan Iassogna_3-1
Greg Gibson_1-3

Week 5: 8-19 (-38.9u)
A1: 1-2 (-3.9u)
A3: 1-3
A4: 5-9
Scott Barry: 1-1
Sam Holbrook: 2-0
Greg Gibson: 2-0
Lance Barksdale: 0-2
Mark Wegner: 0-2
Kerwin Danley: 0-1
Dan Iassogna: 0-1
Doug Eddings: 0-1
Tim Welke: 0-1
__________________________
YTD: 39-54 (-25.75u)

A1: 1-3 (-7.2u)
A3: 4-3
A4: 24-29
Sam Holbrook_5-0
Kerwin Danley_2-4
Scott Barry_2-3
Tim Welke_3-4
Mark Wegner_1-5
Lance Barksdale_2-4
Doug Eddings_3-4
Dan Iassogna_3-2
Greg Gibson_3-3

[dlunc3]

well FitGuy.....that video has done me in. im sitting here listening to this and getting completely amped as i deal with these MIT code writers of algos in my daily job.
sorry for the brett favre act, and apologizes to atofsu for snapping off last night. i dont see myself doing this forever, but i cant walk away after a week of dropping 40u in baseball. i would rather quit at the end of a winning season.
last year i was down about 20 or 30u at some point in baseball, so this is nothing out of the ordinary. it was just a really bad couple of days and i feel lucky to have sat out on a losing Monday.

[Dexter]

whats up with your pm DLunc? need me to talk to some people? lol

[Zacharrr]

good to hear dexter !

[mlb]

Good, glad your still gonna be around

[Dexter]

looks like just an A3 loss and an A4 win (Iassogna) from last night - will obviously go into their records.

[Dexter]

reducing the Gibson A4's to 3u now that hes back to 50%