Friday Value Plays

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  • fifawcs
    SBR MVP
    • 05-14-07
    • 2888

    #1
    Friday Value Plays
    I didn't make any plays yesterday for obvious reasons.

    Tigers +140
    Pros: Galarraga has been the Tiger's best pitcher. He has quietly put together an amazing season. He will be opposing another very good pitcher in Liriano. Liriano, however, has struggled in his career versus the Tigers. In fact, they are the only team that has given him grief in his short-lived career. The Tigers also feast on lefties. While Galarraga is 0-3 this season versus the Twins, I think he will be 1-4 by the end of the night.

    Cons: The Tigers have a crap bullpen and are not always playing to win.

    Reds +140
    Pros: Ted Lilly has struggled in three home starts versus the Reds this season. This time around, he will be facing them at Great American Ballpark. While trading away Dunn and Griffey decreased the Red's offensive production, they still have some guys who can hit (Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto, Bruce). The Cubs will be playing on the road in this one. Arroyo actually has good home numbers and is 2-0 versus the Cubbies this year. He was great in August and will hopefully be good in September. The Reds also have a good bullpen.

    Cons: The Red's offense is not as good as they used to be.
  • johnnymapalo
    SBR MVP
    • 06-14-08
    • 2999

    #2
    Originally posted by fifawcs
    I didn't make any plays yesterday for obvious reasons.

    Tigers +140
    Pros: Galarraga has been the Tiger's best pitcher. He has quietly put together an amazing season. He will be opposing another very good pitcher in Liriano. Liriano, however, has struggled in his career versus the Tigers. In fact, they are the only team that has given him grief in his short-lived career. The Tigers also feast on lefties. While Galarraga is 0-3 this season versus the Twins, I think he will be 1-4 by the end of the night.

    Cons: The Tigers have a crap bullpen and are not always playing to win.

    Reds +140


    Pros: Ted Lilly has struggled in three home starts versus the Reds this season. This time around, he will be facing them at Great American Ballpark. While trading away Dunn and Griffey decreased the Red's offensive production, they still have some guys who can hit (Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto, Bruce). The Cubs will be playing on the road in this one. Arroyo actually has good home numbers and is 2-0 versus the Cubbies this year. He was great in August and will hopefully be good in September. The Reds also have a good bullpen.

    Cons: The Red's offense is not as good as they used to be.


    I don't know guy. The Cubs to me play better on the road than they do at home. Cubs also cover point spreads better on the road than they do at home. Cubs looking to right the ship and I believe they will sweep the Reds. Other pick, Galagara is definitely the best pitcher on the Tigers but Minny owns him and I don't like playing the Tigers on the 1st game of any series. They always play weak in 1st game of series. Good luck though. I like Houston Astros +140 as the underdog today..
    Comment
    • fifawcs
      SBR MVP
      • 05-14-07
      • 2888

      #3
      The Cubs haven't been playing well. Neither have the Reds. so that could mean that they are either due to win or will continue losing. Lilly's numbers aren't that great against the Reds and Arroyo has been awesome lately. I hate putting money on the Tigers, but they aren't such a bad team when they are the underdog. Liriano is definitely due to get lit up and I think this is the game. Liriano's pitching motion is similar to Oliver Perez and Johan Santana's. They come in from extreme left side of the mound angles. Versus righties, he has a .238 BAA, which is good. But his BAA versus lefties is significantly better at .213. The Tiger lineup is saturated with power hitting righties like Sheffield, Thames, Cabrera. Mags is also really good. The biggest con is their pen and the fact that they don't try all the time.
      Comment
      • ryanXL977
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-24-08
        • 20615

        #4
        liriano is awesome
        twins dont lose at home
        tigers mailed it in

        not a good idea
        Comment
        • ICE-BLOOD
          SBR MVP
          • 07-21-08
          • 1004

          #5
          Originally posted by ryanXL977
          liriano is awesome
          twins dont lose at home
          tigers mailed it in

          not a good idea
          liriano really pitching well
          tough to go against him
          also, +140 doesn't seem like enuff
          Comment
          • fifawcs
            SBR MVP
            • 05-14-07
            • 2888

            #6
            Liriano is awesome. But awesome pitchers don't win every game. Galarraga is equally as good in terms of ERA this year. Also, look at Liriano's '06 numbers. I believe the Tigers were the only team he had trouble against that year. He had good numbers versus every other team. And if you think about it, it makes sense. The Tigers are a primarily righty team. Granderson is the only lefty I can think of. There are a few switch hitters as well.


            If you think about the Tiger's offense now as compared to '06, I would say it's pretty similar/slightly better. +140 is a good line.
            Comment
            • johnnymapalo
              SBR MVP
              • 06-14-08
              • 2999

              #7
              Originally posted by fifawcs
              Liriano is awesome. But awesome pitchers don't win every game. Galarraga is equally as good in terms of ERA this year. Also, look at Liriano's '06 numbers. I believe the Tigers were the only team he had trouble against that year. He had good numbers versus every other team. And if you think about it, it makes sense. The Tigers are a primarily righty team. Granderson is the only lefty I can think of. There are a few switch hitters as well.


              If you think about the Tiger's offense now as compared to '06, I would say it's pretty similar/slightly better. +140 is a good line.
              I don't know man, I still think you should go with Houston +140. Maybe you win, maybe I win. We'll see tonight..
              Comment
              • fifawcs
                SBR MVP
                • 05-14-07
                • 2888

                #8
                I don't bet against Jimenez. The guy is a stud at home. The Rockies are a great home team.
                Comment
                • johnnymapalo
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-14-08
                  • 2999

                  #9
                  Originally posted by fifawcs
                  I don't bet against Jimenez. The guy is a stud at home. The Rockies are a great home team.
                  to me, the Rockies are better on the road than at home. At home, they look like they play less defense but who am I to judge. I think Jimi is a bust right now. We'll see who provails tonight..
                  Comment
                  • ICE-BLOOD
                    SBR MVP
                    • 07-21-08
                    • 1004

                    #10
                    Originally posted by fifawcs
                    Liriano is awesome. But awesome pitchers don't win every game. Galarraga is equally as good in terms of ERA this year. Also, look at Liriano's '06 numbers. I believe the Tigers were the only team he had trouble against that year. He had good numbers versus every other team. And if you think about it, it makes sense. The Tigers are a primarily righty team. Granderson is the only lefty I can think of. There are a few switch hitters as well.


                    If you think about the Tiger's offense now as compared to '06, I would say it's pretty similar/slightly better. +140 is a good line.
                    good points.
                    when i think about it galarraga at home +140 seems ok.
                    Both realky good starters


                    under 8 1/2 is my play on this game
                    Comment
                    • ryanXL977
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-24-08
                      • 20615

                      #11
                      era isnt the best measurement, but you should use lirianos era since he came back from the minors, not the whole year

                      twinsare a better team, by a mile
                      Comment
                      • Kingctb27
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-16-08
                        • 2258

                        #12
                        Wouldn't be betting against the Cubs against the Reds. A Value is getting the Cubs at -150 IMO.
                        Comment
                        • fifawcs
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-14-07
                          • 2888

                          #13
                          Ok. But you realize you are laying -150 on a team that has struggled recently and versus Arroyo. They are also on the road.
                          Comment
                          • ryanXL977
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-24-08
                            • 20615

                            #14
                            i like cincy
                            i dont like det
                            Comment
                            • txsholdempro
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 06-05-08
                              • 131

                              #15
                              fifa u also relaize that the red have 0 to play for the cubs still have something to play for, a better coach will guess these guys moving, i like the cubs
                              Comment
                              • ryanXL977
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-24-08
                                • 20615

                                #16
                                cubs just about lost all 4 to the phils, got swept at home by houston

                                they can have something to play for, that doesnt mean they will win though
                                every team wants to win, these are pros

                                patriots had something to play for and lost, thats a point people bring up and thats why the cubs are -150 on the road when they should not be
                                Comment
                                • fifawcs
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-14-07
                                  • 2888

                                  #17
                                  Listen Ry, i don't want to offend you or anything, but you are acting like a homer. Liriano is good, but how can you expect him to win every single game? Explain how he wasn't great versus the Tigers but was good against every other team back in '06? He was a better pitcher in '06 as well.
                                  Comment
                                  • ryanXL977
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-24-08
                                    • 20615

                                    #18
                                    i am from texas, thats my team. my next fave team is the phils. i didnt pick the twins in either of the last 2 at tor, this game is different. you are taking a horrible team, on the road, vs a top 3 home team in baseball. its illogical

                                    of coruse liriano wont win them all,

                                    the tigers went to the series in 06, this team doesnt resemble that team at all

                                    you think a stat from 2006 has anything to do with a game today?

                                    thats pretty thin dude!
                                    Comment
                                    • fifawcs
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-14-07
                                      • 2888

                                      #19
                                      TXS, that argument doesn't work as much in professional sports because there is another motivation known as money. These players are under contract to play and if they play well, they can make more money. There is always a reason to win. And a young team like the Reds is going to play to win since some of the guys know they could be demoted at any time. Besides, younger players actually like playing the game.
                                      Comment
                                      • ryanXL977
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 02-24-08
                                        • 20615

                                        #20
                                        seriously dude, it has nothing to do with me liking the twins at all
                                        if you are betting against a team bc of a stat from 2 years ago, when the team was good, you are really stretching and it will cost you

                                        twins win today

                                        i will say it now

                                        LOCK
                                        Comment
                                        • ryanXL977
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-24-08
                                          • 20615

                                          #21
                                          liriano has allowed like a 1.2 era and hasnt lost since he came back from the minors
                                          he is at home, the tigers suck

                                          thats just not value
                                          im begging you not to take the tigers, it makes no sense dude

                                          a homer is someone who thinks their team will make the loffs no matter how shitty they play
                                          i am not sure twins make the loffs

                                          i am sure the yanks dont though!!!

                                          sidney
                                          rasner

                                          check
                                          mate!
                                          Comment
                                          • fifawcs
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-14-07
                                            • 2888

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                            i am from texas, thats my team. my next fave team is the phils. i didnt pick the twins in either of the last 2 at tor, this game is different. you are taking a horrible team, on the road, vs a top 3 home team in baseball. its illogical

                                            of coruse liriano wont win them all,

                                            the tigers went to the series in 06, this team doesnt resemble that team at all

                                            you think a stat from 2006 has anything to do with a game today?

                                            thats pretty thin dude!
                                            The only thing the '06 team had that this team doesn't is pitching. Other than that, they are basically the same. Since we are talking about Liriano's success against the Tigers, we will be referring to the Tiger offense's success in matchups with Liriano. The Detroit pitcher today has been very good. He is the only guy on their team who can currently pitch a game without giving up 5 runs.

                                            Btw, Minnesota is the #5 home team.
                                            Comment
                                            • ryanXL977
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-24-08
                                              • 20615

                                              #23
                                              you are throwing money into the garbage
                                              take az, take phils, take some team that actually is good and a dog

                                              taking a horrible team vs a top team bc they are plus money isnt value

                                              but its your cash
                                              thats one bet i am sure you arent gonna win amigo!
                                              Comment
                                              • fifawcs
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-14-07
                                                • 2888

                                                #24
                                                The Tigers aren't good, but they have a good offense and a good starter on the mound.
                                                Comment
                                                • ryanXL977
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-24-08
                                                  • 20615

                                                  #25
                                                  well i like debating you and we will see my friend

                                                  good luck to us both

                                                  but i will bring this up later when he shuts those shitty tigers down

                                                  they have mailed it in and you KNOW THIS FIFA!!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • fifawcs
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-14-07
                                                    • 2888

                                                    #26
                                                    If I knew it, why would I bet it?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ryanXL977
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 02-24-08
                                                      • 20615

                                                      #27
                                                      dude, you know they have mailed it in
                                                      you post it everyday
                                                      you bet against det all the time
                                                      last week i won huge with cleve vs det
                                                      so did you

                                                      carmona

                                                      dont bet twins
                                                      so many great games today with good solid dogs

                                                      az
                                                      phils
                                                      tex
                                                      flor
                                                      hous
                                                      laa

                                                      not a bad dog like det

                                                      gl
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fifawcs
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-14-07
                                                        • 2888

                                                        #28
                                                        I thought u meant that the Twins were a sure winner. Yeah, I know the Tigers don't really try as much. But something tells me this game will be different. This is one of their biggest rivals, so who knows.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • darrell74
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 04-16-07
                                                          • 14648

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by fifawcs
                                                          I didn't make any plays yesterday for obvious reasons.

                                                          Tigers +140
                                                          Pros: Galarraga has been the Tiger's best pitcher. He has quietly put together an amazing season. He will be opposing another very good pitcher in Liriano. Liriano, however, has struggled in his career versus the Tigers. In fact, they are the only team that has given him grief in his short-lived career. The Tigers also feast on lefties. While Galarraga is 0-3 this season versus the Twins, I think he will be 1-4 by the end of the night.

                                                          Cons: The Tigers have a crap bullpen and are not always playing to win.

                                                          Reds +140
                                                          Pros: Ted Lilly has struggled in three home starts versus the Reds this season. This time around, he will be facing them at Great American Ballpark. While trading away Dunn and Griffey decreased the Red's offensive production, they still have some guys who can hit (Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto, Bruce). The Cubs will be playing on the road in this one. Arroyo actually has good home numbers and is 2-0 versus the Cubbies this year. He was great in August and will hopefully be good in September. The Reds also have a good bullpen.

                                                          Cons: The Red's offense is not as good as they used to be.
                                                          Tigers are done! Minnesota is happy as hell to be home. Twinkies exploit Tigers.
                                                          Reds? I guess I can see that. I got the reds getting a run.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ryanXL977
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 02-24-08
                                                            • 20615

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by fifawcs
                                                            I thought u meant that the Twins were a sure winner. Yeah, I know the Tigers don't really try as much. But something tells me this game will be different. This is one of their biggest rivals, so who knows.
                                                            twins are a sure winner
                                                            i may have mistyped

                                                            gl to us both
                                                            go reds
                                                            Comment
                                                            • darrell74
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 04-16-07
                                                              • 14648

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                                              dude, you know they have mailed it in
                                                              you post it everyday
                                                              you bet against det all the time
                                                              last week i won huge with cleve vs det
                                                              so did you

                                                              carmona

                                                              dont bet twins
                                                              so many great games today with good solid dogs

                                                              az
                                                              phils
                                                              tex
                                                              flor
                                                              hous
                                                              laa

                                                              not a bad dog like det

                                                              gl
                                                              Good selection of dogs. Come to think of it, I might get a twinky run line.
                                                              Houston looks good, winning 5 straight.
                                                              Nolasco has made me a bunch of cash, in the past.
                                                              LAA has plenty in the tank, after whipping kittens.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ryanXL977
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 02-24-08
                                                                • 20615

                                                                #32
                                                                one last point
                                                                whats gallaraggas record vs minne lifetime

                                                                since you guys love using those types of stats

                                                                love
                                                                ryan!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Wilforth
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 05-10-08
                                                                  • 16309

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Kingctb27
                                                                  Wouldn't be betting against the Cubs against the Reds. A Value is getting the Cubs at -150 IMO.
                                                                  Lilly is 0-4 against the Reds!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • darrell74
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-16-07
                                                                    • 14648

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                                                    one last point
                                                                    whats gallaraggas record vs minne lifetime

                                                                    since you guys love using those types of stats

                                                                    love
                                                                    ryan!
                                                                    Dead on! Gallarga is 0-3 in 4 starts, versus Twinkies.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • fifawcs
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-14-07
                                                                      • 2888

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Yes. I am was aware of that at the time that I placed the bet. But if you look at his ERA versus the Twins this year, it isn't awful. So that means he didn't get much offensive support in his starts. However, I believe the Tigers will hit Liriano hard. That is my feeling about today.
                                                                      Comment
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