Thursday - Pair of 5's Sir

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Yesterday 1-0 +1.76 units

COL +176 (W)

Potential Risk 1 unit, Reward 1.76 units

This selection was the second time, in as many nights, taking COL. Stick with the contrarian, we're racking up units and perhaps somwhere $$$

Overall

11-8 57.89% +5.47 units

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Contrarian Look

SFO is on the radar screen. Marlines commanding a high price to lay due to the scary ERA of Giants pitcher Palmer. Line confirmation being established by money going on Marlins.

SFO is on the radar screen as a play. Stay tuned to the thread as the afternoon develops.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

SFO will take down the Marlins today. Money going on the Marlins due to the 23.00 + ERA of the Giants pitcher. Line confirmation is in place.

SFO +180

Overall 11-8 57.89% +5.47 units

[TheLock]

3-2 SFO going to the top 6

[AC1318]

I missed the hike in the line

what happened pitcher change or something ? last I saw -148

[TheLock]

I missed the hike in the line

what happened pitcher change or something ? last I saw -148

No pitching change. All the money started going on FLA.

[jtuck]

If you dont mind sharing, what other things do you look in deciding plays besides line movement?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

If you dont mind sharing, what other things do you look in deciding plays besides line movement?

My plays are contrarian in nature. I have had much success in the financial markets, using contrarian plays. These are some of the factors considered that lead up to the selection.

What information does the public see, that makes the line, ie. ERA, streaks, and standings. This information for the novice players is overrated.

Does the line make sense, particularly on the favorite. Oftentimes, the public will use the above, overrated information to pound the favorite. They see the information, and move the line accordingly to no success.

Head to head records, where the line is lower than expected, for the dominating team.

There are several other triggers but I won't bore you.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Contrarian Look

Looking at the ATL thus far. Martinez will get tons of money based on the NY Metro pounce. Hampton's ERA is concerning the line goers. The line confirmation is established but waiting to see. I'll let you know if ATL is a play as we approach gametime.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

Line confirmation is established. ATL ticked up to +195. ATL is the play. After hitting the SFO +180, I am freerolling with my contrarian dog play.

ATL +195

Overall 12-8 60.00% +7.27 units

[TheLock]

You should have quit while you we're ahead. Marlins gave you a gift today (baserunning errors, wild pitches etc etc..........)


That being said, the only play on this game was in fact SFO. Anyone who took the Marlins on the road with no Hanley Ramirez at -191 really does not have their finger on the pulse of how bad a team they have been since the ASB

[Kingctb27]

You should have quit while you we're ahead. Marlins gave you a gift today (baserunning errors, wild pitches etc etc..........)


That being said, the only play on this game was in fact SFO. Anyone who took the Marlins on the road with no Hanley Ramirez at -191 really does not have their finger on the pulse of how bad a team they have been since the ASB

Yeah, I got them at 170 last night before hanley was hurt.

D'oh

[Kingctb27]

You seem to know your stuff man... I am on the Braves tonight.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

You seem to know your stuff man... I am on the Braves tonight.

I appreciate your kind words. Taking a financial market point of view and applying to sports betting is unique. Feel free to follow the thread to suggest, criticize and offer your thoughts.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Contrarian Look

Contrarian radar is looking at SEA. OAK has numerous statistical categories that don't coincide with the near pickem line. Line confirmation has been establish. Still waiting to see if confirmation continues. I will report back. Stay tuned to the thread.

[TheLock]

No leans on the Sea game for me Contrarian.

This is interesting though: Padres +1.5 are +130




Oh, I seriously 'd @ "Contrarian radar".

Good stuff.

[ryanXL977]

if there is one sure thing in basebal, one certain thing, its webb

[TheLock]

Believe it or not, Webb's WHIP is not good as Haren's.

Webb is an absolute stud don't get me wrong but when you can get +1.5 @ +130, further investigation is warranted.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Contrarian Look II

MIN getting a look. Lackey tops all pitching comparison, MIN 0-9 as road dog. Bettors are selling MIN short. Line confirmatin is setting up beautifully, LAA getting all the money.


SEA is maintaining its consideration status.

Scored with SFO +180 today
In a close one with ATL +195

Overall 12-8 60.00% +7.27 units

Stay threaded boys.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

MIN +155 is set up for the late game. All contrarian signals are there (I left out the radar metaphor).

Put in down on MINNIE.

[ryanXL977]

i like minne a lot
a lot

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

All numbers point in the direction of OAK. Contrarian Rule: Why is SEA -106. HMMM. Contrarian line move established. Go with SEA -106. That's right, you are betting SEA as a favorite.


Recap late selection

SEA -106
MIN +155

[TheLock]

What a horrible way to lose the Atl/NYM game.


Mets just can't lose right now.



It will be fun to watch the Mets take the gas pipe when it really counts though.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

What a horrible way to lose the Atl/NYM game.


Mets just can't lose right now.



It will be fun to watch the Mets take the gas pipe when it really counts though.

A loser at a nice price, if there is any such thing.

[ryanXL977]

there is not

[AC1318]

MIN getting a look. Lackey tops all pitching comparison, MIN 0-9 as road dog. Bettors are selling MIN short. Line confirmatin is setting up beautifully, LAA getting all the money.


SEA is maintaining its consideration status.

Scored with SFO +180 today
In a close one with ATL +195

Overall 12-8 60.00% +7.27 units

Stay threaded boys.

I am on the LAA tonight

but I must ask twins you post are 0-9 as a road dog and playing against one of the best teams in MLB so how are they a play ?? even at 150 or 168 whatever it closed. It looks good now only down 1 zip

[AC1318]

add in baker is 0-5 in 5 starts vs LAA

[TheLock]

I am on the LAA tonight

but I must ask twins you post are 0-9 as a road dog and playing against one of the best teams in MLB so how are they a play ?? even at 150 or 168 whatever it closed. It looks good now only down 1 zip

this is why it's a "contrarian" play. All signals point towards LAA (and all the money is going on LAA).

Boom. Go the other way.

[AC1318]

this is why it's a "contrarian" play. All signals point towards LAA (and all the money is going on LAA).

Boom. Go the other way.

would a first time starter not have the data for example in SD game

I would think all points to arizona too

[ICE-BLOOD]

nice hit on sf. i was one of the many who got suckered in on that cotton-picking palmer pitcher.

[AC1318]

I guess you need to fine tooth comb it because I am sure you can make a case for a lot of lopsided games but to bet against it I would think could get expensive.
so what are the other factors ?

[TheLock]

would a first time starter not have the data for example in SD game

I would think all points to arizona too

Good point. I mentioned this to Pairof5's prior to the SD/ARZ game.


Not sure which way the $$ was going just prior to the game though. Plus, Webb's trends may have steered him away from a contrarion play also.

[ICE-BLOOD]

this contrarian stuff works better for baseball than other sports.

[AC1318]

well the 5's are in the money with the 5th inning score by twins

[TheLock]

this contrarian stuff works better for baseball than other sports.

I agree completely but I'm interested to hear why you think so before I say why I think so.