Friday Value Plays

[fifawcs]

I went 1-2 -0.36 units yesterday.

Angels +126
Pros: While Cliff Lee may be a cy young candidate this year, I'm not sure if he will be able to stifle the MLB leading Angels. The Angels are a very well-rounded team with a good offense, bullpen, and defense. Jered Weaver may not need to sport Cy Young stuff against Cliff tonight since the Indian's offense is a shadow of what it once was. The Angels also hit lefties well and should get at least 3 runs off him. The Angels are also one of the few teams with a winning road record.

Cons: Cliff Lee is a cy young candidate.

A's +112
Pros: I know the A's have no offense, but they seem to own the white sox at home. Gavin Floyd is a terrible road pitcher and the White Sox struggle against lefties. There is no reason why this line should be positive for the A's.

Cons: The A's have no offense.

[fifawcs]

Nationals +102
Pros: If the Nats lose this game, i am done betting them. Luckily, I think today will be the day that they win. De La Rosa is pretty bad and the Rockies are pretty bad on the road. Tim Redding has the best record of any Nats starter. I figure I should take a shot at plus money.

Cons: The Nats are a AAA ball club.

[sickness]

yep, i like nats.

dont know about angels..

Cleavland has been hitting lately..

[sickness]

and their last game..

they lost to seattle with felix on da mound.

[fifawcs]

No they haven't. They barely hit in the series with the O's. Without Casey Blake, Travis Hafner (good), and Victor Martinez, their offense has suffered. The only guys I like on their current team are Ben Francisco, Grady Sizemore, and maybe Shoppach.

[fifawcs]

The Angels are better against southpaws and they play better on the road.

[fifawcs]

I'm gonna wait on this A's line, it will definitely get better.

[sickness]

well, i am not playing this game.

i just don't like betting against cliff lee, lol.

and im against you with a's.

[fifawcs]

The White Sox on the road are 26-33. Oakland is 33-31 at home. Gavin Floyd is much worse on the road than he is at home. I just don't think the Sox can keep the momentum going.

[sickness]

lol, im simply fading them.

they lost to tb when their offense was lacking..

either way, one of us will win.

bol

[AC1318]

tribe has trouble beating weaver won 1 out of 5 where lee lost 3 of 7
I like LAA

wsoxbeen scoring big runs and gavin floyd can pitch a good game anyplace
for petes sake he is 12-6 16-7 in games started
he also pitched 7 shutout innings vs oakland this year

as for nats don't like the game but redding been bad with a 2.30 whip and 10.30 ERA last couple combined with colorado is better in every aspect except for starter but dela rosa pitched a 2 run 7 inning game vs wash this year and historically col whips up on wash not to mention the ass beaten wash laid on col in col I think col put it to them today

06 col 8-0
07 col 4-3
08 col 1-3 time to adjust the W/L column

as always best of luck

[ryanXL977]

how often do you get the best team in baseball at +money
its dumb not to do laa, who cares if its lee
its the ****ing angels at plus money

as for oak, not gonna win again the rest of the yr

[Wilforth]

Nats: Terrific pick! That's cash in the bank.
Angels: I wouldn't touch this. Lee is 6-0 at home and is 4-3 against the Angels. Most of his wins against the Angels must have been home wins. The Angels have to lose sometimes and today could be one of those days.
A's: Floyd may not be great on the road but the A's mediocre offense can turn any pitcher to a Cy Young candidate. Plus Floyd enjoys good runs support, which is why he's 4-0 in his last four despite his present shortcomings.

[ryanXL977]

nats cash in the bank? that is never ever a sure thing
but i like it

[Wilforth]

nats cash in the bank? that is never ever a sure thing
but i like it

Agreed. But I'd say the Nats realistically have about 80% chance of winning by my criteria.

[ryanXL977]

wow

[Wilforth]

Ryan,

Are you one the Nats?

[ryanXL977]

yes,

but they are a bottom 3 team in the mlb for a reason, 30 games below 500!

[Wilforth]

Yes, we know they aren't a top team but what matters is whether they can win tonight. Today's situation presents them a good chance of winning. DeLa Rosa vs. Redding and Rockies on the road vs. Nats at home. Don't forget that these Nats have a way of choosing a night in which they score runs like mad. Tonight could be one of those and that's why I'm not taking the Under in that game even though it looks realizable.

[ryanXL977]

i am on nats, but 80%? whered you get that number?

there are some nice ones today


especially fifas laa pick

[Wilforth]

Forget those estimates made by so-called experts. What we are talking about is their chance of winning given tonight's peculiar situation, taking everything into consideration. The Rockies are no Angels or Cubs. We'll cash this one after the game, trust me.

I think the following may also cash:
Jays/BoSox FF Under 4.5
Cards/Reds FF Under 5.

What are your thoughts on these?

[Wilforth]

i am on nats, but 80%? whered you get that number?

there are some nice ones today


especially fifas laa pick

The last thing I'll do in my life is to fade Lee at home. Those who have the courage to do so, I wish them luck. For me, I'm on the Tribe. The Angels don't win all games and tonight's game could be very challenging. I know the Tribe's bullpen is no one's darling, but this team still manages to somehow dominate at home!

[fifawcs]

The Angels are a better team since the deadline. Now they have Teixeira.

[fifawcs]

Luckily, I haven't put anything down on the A's yet. I think the line will get better.