tampa bay rays today

[ryanXL977]

earth to everyone:
boston isnt good on the road, tampa is in first place and at home, with their best pitcher, a lefty, against a team who has 2 of their first 3 batters hitting from the left side.
dice k is not generally very good vs the rays, even prior to this year.

i am taking tb to win tonite, im layin the chalk

[DarkLord_Rathi]

Stay away from this game. I don't think the BoSox's are going to get swept.. Just not worth the risk.

[ryanXL977]

they will be swept
tampa is just as good as boston right now.
tampa better pitcher, better team at home than boston on the road

mark my words!1

[Wilforth]

No bothering which team wins. Matsuzaka + Kazmir = Under 7.5 runs.
The Under appears the best bet here.

[fifawcs]

The Sox hit lefties better than righties. This game could go either way. I personally think the over is a better play.

[Wilforth]

The runs output of these 2 teams isn't great at the moment. I speculate 2 runs in the FF and 2 or 3 more in last 4 innings to put the total at 4 or 5.

[BadBeatBodog]

On Rays and under. Lets do this Ryan

[fifawcs]

Yeah, but run production is directly related to the starting pitching the team has faced. The Sox have faced tough pitching lately. Kazmir may continue to be dominant, but this past month he was not as dominant as he was in may. The Astros got 3 runs against him at home in 5.2 innings. That means he is not untouchable and the Sox have a chance to do damage.

[ryanXL977]

rays
rangers

yanks are not good
they wont make the loffs this yr
serioously

[Wilforth]

Yeah, but run production is directly related to the starting pitching the team has faced. The Sox have faced tough pitching lately. Kazmir may continue to be dominant, but this past month he was not as dominant as he was in may. The Astros got 3 runs against him at home in 5.2 innings. That means he is not untouchable and the Sox have a chance to do damage.

If Kazmir wasn't dominant in his last game, that increases the chance that he'll be dominant today than he was the last time. The law of averages will work here.

[BadBeatBodog]

The Sox hit lefties better than righties. This game could go either way. I personally think the over is a better play.

Not quite. If we look at IsoP and SECA splits** (I wish I had GPA splits for lefty/right but I'm not sure where I would find that) we see five guys (Ellsbury, Drew, ManRam, Moss, and Varitek) perform better versus righties than lefties compared to four guys (Pedroia, Lowell, Youk, and Lugo) who hit lefties better than righties. Not a perfect way of looking at it but the best I could come up with using just a couple minutes of my time.

**It should be noted that there are sample size warnings for the lefty splits (ManRam hits lefties better than righties over his career, as you'd expect, but is struggling versus them this year) and all of Moss' numbers, obviously.

[ryanXL977]

to me, tb is mor like laa
not sea

[nysmoneyman]

lets break this thing wide open

[TheLock]

I always laugh at how ryan never capitalizes anything.

not breakin your ballz ryan, just commenting

[TheLock]

oh yeah I forgot to mention


nice play ryan, it's 5-4 DRays with no outs in the 7th

[nysmoneyman]

congrats on being a hall of famer