Are baseball results almost totally random and unpredictable

**gangeriver** · 08-13-11, 05:52 AM

JoJo, don't take chalk plays. If you find a chalk play and if you wanna take it, make a parlay with men tennis game or european basketball game. I think a good bettor should take chalk plays max. 3-5 times in a month.not more... NHL,MLB,NFL or another US league doesn't matter., chalk plays kills your money...

I recommend you, (if you take only your plays, it seems, you don't want to tail anyone)

-take a MLB Tv subscription and watch the games. Watching is more usual than stats.
-Don't care about pitcher W-L stats and some stupid trends.
-If you want to take a bet, you should have a logical reason, you don't need a number (era,whip,a kind of trend,winning record etc..) sometimes numbers say lie
-if you find a dog take it. don't give up

**J-Ro11** · 08-13-11, 06:00 AM

Don't forget in baseball that hitting 1 out of every 3 pitches is good... there is 162 games in baseball, winning 100 games in a season is somewhat rare.

The best of teams can't win every game.

Take into account what the team did in its previous game, how the team is hitting, who is healthy, who is actually going to start, who is pitching, etc.

**JoJo5473** · 08-13-11, 06:11 AM

Thanks gangeriver and J-Ro11, I have a long way to go, I am gonna start watching baseball more often and maybe adopt a new approach in betting.

**AnonymousAnomaly** · 08-13-11, 06:20 AM

Know the streaks because a hot hitting team will usually be good for the over vs a weaker club, even if they wind up losing. Stats don't always help, but knowing how a team matches up against lefties vs righties, knowing who is in the lineup that game, and how a pitcher has fared recently (last 2-3 games) usually helps me pick the right side on games and totals. Go with your gut too, sometimes you can just feel something is off and take a dog at the right time, but never go big on those. GL

**SportGTI** · 08-13-11, 06:29 AM

Hey JoJo, tough luck last night to you. I myself have had a very frustrating baseball season (my 2nd) and though it seems unpredictable I've actually learned a lot this year.

First like gangeriver stated, try to stay away from heavy favorites, especially in baseball. Yesterday for example, the Phillies were around -280 against Livan and the Nats. Yes, on paper, the Phils should win that one easy, but win or lose, it's not worth putting 280 to win 100. You'd have to win 4 out 5 to just make a small profit. No way to hit 80% as the Phillies aren't even winning 80% of their games.

Personally, I'm always looking for small favorites -110 to -125 or underdogs that aren't getting a good number like +130 to +150. Playing these underdogs, you will lose a lot, but since you are playing + numbers, you don't need to win 60%. I like the idea of trying to watch as many games as possible as well. The more you watch, the more you know how the teams play.

Oh, and the biggest thing I learned, try not to bet (or don't bet big) early in the season. A lot of times, lines are set on public perception of what teams did last year. The Giants were huge favorites early in the season due to winning the world series last year. You must remember, what teams did last year does not correlate to this season. Try to wait a month into the season so that you can start to see where teams are going, and you'll have much better success. I speak to this one personally. I got killed in baseball this season, but my battering took place early. I'm actually doing well in the 2nd half.

I hope I didn't ramble too much. But bol JoJo.

**J-Ro11** · 08-13-11, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by SportGTI

A lot of times, lines are set on public perception of what teams did last year.

Yep, Boston and Tampa Bay lost their first like 5 games or so.

**Romanov** · 08-13-11, 06:54 AM

It better be random otherwise how are you ever going to win?

**KnowingNothing** · 08-13-11, 06:57 AM

Just under 59 unit profit for the season so far. Definitely profitable.

**brahmabull117** · 08-13-11, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by gangeriver

JoJo, don't take chalk plays. If you find a chalk play and if you wanna take it, make a parlay with men tennis game or european basketball game. I think a good bettor should take chalk plays max. 3-5 times in a month.not more... NHL,MLB,NFL or another US league doesn't matter., chalk plays kills your money...

I recommend you, (if you take only your plays, it seems, you don't want to tail anyone)

-take a MLB Tv subscription and watch the games. Watching is more usual than stats.
-Don't care about pitcher W-L stats and some stupid trends.
-If you want to take a bet, you should have a logical reason, you don't need a number (era,whip,a kind of trend,winning record etc..) sometimes numbers say lie
-if you find a dog take it. don't give up

this is a bunch of horsesht here

I'm 20-6 betting on baseball (for the first time in my life) and I have absolutely dominated pretty much all due to stats, trends and overall research

**GAMBLOR777** · 08-13-11, 07:02 AM

It's not unpredictable. You can be successful but you have to learn to lose first.

Oh and yes, you were extremely unlucky today, but it happens...

**brahmabull117** · 08-13-11, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by GAMBLOR777

It's not unpredictable. You can be successful but you have to learn to lose first. Oh and yes, you were extremely unlucky today, but it happens...

learn to lose my ass

Ive been betting for the first time on baseball in my life and I'm winning at a nearly 80% clip

if you're good, you're good. Do your research and find matchups that are massively favorable for your betting lines, that's all there is to it

**GAMBLOR777** · 08-13-11, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

learn to lose my ass

Ive been betting for the first time on baseball in my life and I'm winning at a nearly 80% clip

if you're good, you're good. Do your research and find matchups that are massively favorable for your betting lines, that's all there is to it

nobody believes you

you must be very lonely

**hawley** · 08-13-11, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by GAMBLOR777

nobody believes you

you must be very lonely

This guy is probably the biggest joke on SBR right now

an 80% rate means nothing over 26 plays pal

**Redscot** · 08-13-11, 07:12 AM

JoJo it is tough, but there are guys who win consistently. That's not to say they don't have a losing season once in a while. A lot of sharp guys find the totals to be more profitable. Also, there are TONS of stats and trends, some of it is just window dressing imo, but others are vital.

**hawley** · 08-13-11, 07:15 AM

Agreed on accepting to lose though

You take some rough as hell beats in baseball.

One innings can ruin any play

**GAMBLOR777** · 08-13-11, 07:17 AM

Clayton Kershaw, remember the name.

now that's profits.

**brahmabull117** · 08-13-11, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

JoJo it is tough, but there are guys who win consistently. That's not to say they don't have a losing season once in a while. A lot of sharp guys find the totals to be more profitable. Also, there are TONS of stats and trends, some of it is just window dressing imo, but others are vital.

totals are unpredictable as hell in baseball

the only sport where totals are great is football. U take 2 high scoring teams in that sport and the game seemingly always goes over

**GAMBLOR777** · 08-13-11, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

totals are unpredictable as hell in baseball

the only sport where totals are great is football. U take 2 high scoring teams in that sport and the game seemingly always goes over

you say you can hit 80% and still find totals unpredictable.

maybe you should visit LTA's thread he'll show you how it's done son.

**brahmabull117** · 08-13-11, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by GAMBLOR777

you say you can hit 80% and still find totals unpredictable. maybe you should visit LTA's thread he'll show you how it's done son.

I bet on moneylines and runlines, where I'm ridiculously profitable

**hawley** · 08-13-11, 07:30 AM

come back in a month or two and post a screen shot

no one cares about this nice little run you are on because you will go all in on the phillies at -280 which is great value and lose it all eventually

**GAMBLOR777** · 08-13-11, 07:34 AM

I applaud you on your current run it seems impressive but it's just three weeks mate

Show me two seasons+ and I MIGHT believe you are good.

i.e start a thread or stfu

**as99** · 08-13-11, 07:41 AM

I lost on both of those bets as well today but ended just about even (small loss).... NY Yankees I played the -1 line and Phillies played the -1.5 line..... so the juice was low.

These games were not as certain as you think they were, #1 TB Rays just swept a team and were looking very good coming in, with a solid pitcher... spoiler team. Hernandez has looked like sH8t recently, but has been known to shut it down in the past (another thing the stats don't teach you.)

**Optional** · 08-13-11, 07:49 AM

I had Yanks and Phillies in parlays as well grrr... but to rub salt into the wound, I went 3x normal bet size on Giants too.

As a first season baseball bettor, I'm with you on hating the game today JoJo!

**chantrain** · 08-13-11, 10:09 AM

my favorite thing to do is to take good teams coming off a loss, the logic being that they're unlikely to lose twice in a row.

A lot of people think that's stupid though

**gangeriver** · 08-13-11, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

this is a bunch of horsesht here

I'm 20-6 betting on baseball (for the first time in my life) and I have absolutely dominated pretty much all due to stats, trends and overall research

welcome to MLB....probably that is your first season

**HoulihansTX** · 08-13-11, 10:55 AM

70% of MLB teams are mediocre. So their will be a high variance in win/loss streaks, since most teams will finish within +/- 5% of a .500 win percentage overall.

**JoJo5473** · 08-14-11, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by SportGTI

Hey JoJo, tough luck last night to you. I myself have had a very frustrating baseball season (my 2nd) and though it seems unpredictable I've actually learned a lot this year.

First like gangeriver stated, try to stay away from heavy favorites, especially in baseball. Yesterday for example, the Phillies were around -280 against Livan and the Nats. Yes, on paper, the Phils should win that one easy, but win or lose, it's not worth putting 280 to win 100. You'd have to win 4 out 5 to just make a small profit. No way to hit 80% as the Phillies aren't even winning 80% of their games.

Personally, I'm always looking for small favorites -110 to -125 or underdogs that aren't getting a good number like +130 to +150. Playing these underdogs, you will lose a lot, but since you are playing + numbers, you don't need to win 60%. I like the idea of trying to watch as many games as possible as well. The more you watch, the more you know how the teams play.

Oh, and the biggest thing I learned, try not to bet (or don't bet big) early in the season. A lot of times, lines are set on public perception of what teams did last year. The Giants were huge favorites early in the season due to winning the world series last year. You must remember, what teams did last year does not correlate to this season. Try to wait a month into the season so that you can start to see where teams are going, and you'll have much better success. I speak to this one personally. I got killed in baseball this season, but my battering took place early. I'm actually doing well in the 2nd half.

I hope I didn't ramble too much. But bol JoJo.

Thanks for your wisdom SportGTI. You are absolutely right, I shoud have stayed away from the Phillies last night especially they had a line of -280, it wasn't worth it. And thanks for the advice on early season betting too.

**JoJo5473** · 08-14-11, 05:07 AM

Originally posted by chantrain

my favorite thing to do is to take good teams coming off a loss, the logic being that they're unlikely to lose twice in a row.

A lot of people think that's stupid though

You are right both the Yankees and the Phillies beat their opponents in the 2nd game of the series today. The funny thing is that it doesn't make much sense logically but it still often happens.

**JoJo5473** · 08-14-11, 05:19 AM

KnowingNothing and brahmalbull117, congratulations on the winnings! How do you guys do it, do you have threads?