Talkin Wed Bases

**homosayswhat** · 08-03-11, 05:15 AM

Best play on the board

Over 9
Royals and Birds

Are you serious....gas can vs gas can

this game will be 19...no 9

hahaha

Guthrie on the road....

please

**homosayswhat** · 08-03-11, 05:17 AM

and you gotta love Supr Villn. between the self bumps...talking to himself in his threads...sh*tty record .... you almost feel sorry for the slob

hahahahhaa

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 05:47 AM

anyone out there have a opinion as if to whether i should play cin/hou un now @ 8.5 -115 (more juice than i would like) or wait it out till i get home? got about a hour to play now or wait.

**HOT WINGS** · 08-03-11, 06:11 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

anyone out there have a opinion as if to whether i should play cin/hou un now @ 8.5 -115 (more juice than i would like) or wait it out till i get home? got about a hour to play now or wait.

I would wait but its risk either way. Majority of money so far is on Over. Under opened at -120 on pinny and its at -112 now. Looks like the Over will be more popular pick probably because of bullpen use last night. Think I like the FF under there maybe. Kind of Ironic the only fukking loss I had yesterday was Brewers huh?

Oh well knew they were going to blow it when they had bases loaded and no outs in 7th and couldnt score 1 fukking run

**19th Hole** · 08-03-11, 06:16 AM

Originally posted by homosayswhat

Best play on the board

Over 9
Royals and Birds

Are you serious....gas can vs gas can

this game will be 19...no 9

hahaha

Guthrie on the road....

please

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
Love the dueling "gascans"...

How about
NYM
SF
SD

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 06:25 AM

yea HW i figure the masses will look to be on the over but i worry others with a little more Bank prob be on the under(get it with the wordplay

)...i prob be ok waiting, it fukkin still hot as fukk here so i dont plan on doing much after 1ish hopefully that gm doesnt get a lot of attention early...still hard for me to stomach idea of losing the hook.

ok here what im gonna do cause im a degen fan and i want 8.5 on cincy....

2 team parlay stl ml/cin un 8.5 .2 to .51

i dont wanna get any grief over the parlay or the fact im on stl or anything else, it just .2 so not like im risking anything that is gonna change my day. but hey if Cards do win then i got a half unit on the 8.5 in case it goes lower......

**God1** · 08-03-11, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

even tho i feel like Jays are capable of hitting Shields here i think i gotta agree with what you are saying, nice point with the steals as well. possible they set low because it likely ppl overreact to tb losing with Price yesterday as he is still looked at as the ace much more so than he should be?(lot closer split in percentages of ppl on a side than yesterday that i see) , while there is certainly no disputing the drop off in Jays pitcher.

That said im not sure because the price not right for tor that i want to get behind tb, im sure this is one area we disagree as i know you saying tampa warrants a play @ current odds. I just cant simply make a play because of this alone but trust me i understand it (no need to explain as i get the theory), that said i dont mind passing one bit...

Rays at home is the only reason that this might be correctly priced but that would mean they would have had to fix that overnight which obviously didn't happen. I also thought Hudson would close under +140 for sure and I bet it at +145 and the true close was +160 so what do I know. And yes it was a win but losing to the closing line by 15 cents is a losing bet everytime. I still can't even come close to wrapping my head around +160. Nailed the cards true line on the dot, -113/+106

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 06:32 AM

Originally posted by 19th Hole

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
Love the dueling "gascans"...

How about
NYM
SF
SD

yea HSW is a funny cat and from what i have seen makes pretty solid plays. i do wish when he makes a thread he would ease off the "easy play" stuff, that shit makes my stomach turn, no disrespect to him but i never find baseball gms to be easy and half the time feel fortunate when they cash...but i guess it just his thing...

strongly lean to SF. would like to hear what "god" thinks of that price and i should be home before that starts...way i see it it the shitiest number yet to back zona and the worst pitcher they have thrown in series, not to mention they trying to sweep a very good home team, one that cant hit but that hasnt stopped them from winning the rest of the year...i love when i can hit all 3 gms of a series and i think this the way to do it.....

**HOT WINGS** · 08-03-11, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

yea HW i figure the masses will look to be on the over but i worry others with a little more Bank prob be on the under...i prob be ok waiting, it fukkin still hot as fukk here so i dont plan on doing much after 1ish hopefully that gm doesnt get a lot of attention early...still hard for me to stomach idea of losing the hook.

ok here what im gonna do cause im a degen fan and i want 8.5 on cincy....

2 team parlay stl ml/cin un 8.5 .2 to .51

i dont wanna get any grief over the parlay or the fact im on stl or anything else, it just .2 so not like im risking anything that is gonna change my day. but hey if Cards do win then i got a half unit on the 8.5 in case it goes lower......

Yeah not promising anything so dont blame me

I think the juice will work in your favor at somepoint but it could quicly move the other direction closer to gametime. I have no idea at all what I am going to play yet

, but the Rockies over is tempting at first glance. GL

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 06:35 AM

Originally posted by God1

Rays at home is the only reason that this might be correctly priced but that would mean they would have had to fix that overnight which obviously didn't happen. I also thought Hudson would close under +140 for sure and I bet it at +145 and the true close was +160 so what do I know. And yes it was a win but losing to the closing line by 15 cents is a losing bet everytime. I still can't even come close to wrapping my head around +160. Nailed the cards true line on the dot, -113/+106

yes sir...you are more exact than me when it comes to that no doubt.....know i got bad line on zona as well and think lost a few cents on tor but hey, it not our faults that more folks didnt see the validity of those plays to push the line where we thought. i get more of the right side of moves than not so it worth it to be wrong from time to time....Now that you here wait on cincy under or go now with shit juice?

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by HOT WINGS

Yeah not promising anything so dont blame me

I think the juice will work in your favor at somepoint but it could quicly move the other direction closer to gametime. I have no idea at all what I am going to play yet

, but the Rockies over is tempting at first glance. GL

some days i feel like a nut and id be all over Rox +1.5 simply on look ahead and huge public day fav fade but im not feeling all that crazy this morning.

prob lack of opiates (that situation will be corrected shortly

)

**God1** · 08-03-11, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

yes sir...you are more exact than me when it comes to that no doubt.....know i got bad line on zona as well and think lost a few cents on tor but hey, it not are faults that more folks didnt see the validity of those plays to push the line where we thought. i get more of the right side of moves than not so it worth it to be wrong from time to time....Now that you here wait on cincy under or go now with shit juice?

under 8.5 -116 is good enough to bet now. can't go wrong with half now half later. I would guess it closes slightly more expensive but thats just a guess, how the market bets dontrelle(I haven't been paying attention) and settles in to astros unders is anyone's guess at this point

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 06:40 AM

btw HW, that should have been the game you missed!! going against me on a Cards play just cause i missed a few in a row!!

how fukkin dare you bro, you know if i think it time for me to step back i will!!!!! Not like that game was ever in question

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by God1

under 8.5 -116 is good enough to bet now. can't go wrong with half now half later

same thing i was thinking...thanx

thoughts on sf price?

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 06:41 AM

running out of time boys...well not really true as i make my own schedule but i do got shit i need to get done or i would be sitting here with you fuks all day

**HOT WINGS** · 08-03-11, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

btw HW, that should have been the game you missed!! going against me on a Cards play just cause i missed a few in a row!!

how fukkin dare you bro, you know if i think it time for me to step back i will!!!!! Not like that game was ever in question

Yeah a 3 run bomb by Garcia

that game was back and forth all game. I went to bed with game tied but wasnt too surprised to wake up to a loss. After that 7th inning I knew I was screwed. I want to know what the percentage is that a team doesnt score with bases loaded and 0 outs. Anyone? God?

**Love The Action** · 08-03-11, 06:59 AM

Take another look at that scrubs/pirates under. You are not going to see six more home runs from the scrubs. Plus, morton is not as bad as people think. Yes he has had a few bad outtings, including against philly last week, but his advanced stats are solid and he is second in the league in GB/FB which means he keeps the ball on the ground. Garza would be a stud on almost every other team this year, but instead he endures with .33 BABIP for a shit team. Garzas advanced stats are impressive. Neither team is great offensively and despite both teams coming in on five straight overs and the books knowing that the majority will pound the over, they still opened it at 7.5. My model has 6.8, so I was hoping to get 8 so only 9 runs could beat me, but I jumped on the 7.5 because I don't think we see 8 ever on this play. I expect the closer to be 7.5 with the under juiced (-115) or (-120). I think this is a great spot for the under as a sneaky public fade and might add another unit to my 1x play later today.

I also jumped on the Braves -1RL as a fade of wang. I know I reduce my chances of cashing by playing the -1RL, but I think it's warranted in this spot versus wang. Good luck tonight!

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 07:13 AM

i agree LTA..not sure if i got the stomach for it but that what i would play on the chc/pit game if i make a play at all.

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 01:01 PM

Home in time for the stl gm. been trying to post something on it for 5 min but my pc acting crazy...see a few ppl i respect on mil but im not sure ppl realize how stl plays after they start actin like they did last night, they could be a great fade in fla but this game right here? i would be easy, ive seen this show a few times before. Should be a good game....BOL everyone.

**God1** · 08-03-11, 01:08 PM

On the rays game....you could probably make a good case for Shields being the best pitcher in baseball on the numbers. He ranks 9th in SIERA at 3.05. He pitches in the AL East. Verlander, Price, and Morrow are the only other AL pitchers ahead of him in SIERA with Morrow and Price at 3.01 and 3.04. Verlander is at 2.77 but pitches in an awfully weak offensive division compared to the AL East. Shields doesn't allow ANY SBs. That part of the game is completely neutralized.

Halladay/Kershaw are 1/2 in SIERA at 2.55 and 2.66 but both in the NL and both pitch in much weaker offensive divisions than shields

**supr_villn** · 08-03-11, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

Home in time for the stl gm. been trying to post something on it for 5 min but my pc acting crazy...see a few ppl i respect on mil ~~but im not sure ppl realize how stl plays after they start actin like they did last night, they could be a great fade~~ in fla but this game right here? i would be easy, ive seen this show a few times before. Should be a good game....BOL everyone.

.. lol & here i was thinking u h8`d me !

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by supr_villn

.. lol & here i was thinking u h8`d me !

wasnt you pimpin. but doesnt surprise me you on MIL....Hope they ready for a game like this (actually no i dont), business as usual for the Cards...should have waited to fade them until 2marro...

**supr_villn** · 08-03-11, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

wasnt you pimpin. but doesnt surprise me you on MIL....Hope they ready for a game like this (actually no i dont), business as usual for the Cards...should have waited to fade them until 2marro...

uh ,, wtf is that supposed 2 mean ??
are u saying u (actually) agree w/ me ? ..

**Love The Action** · 08-03-11, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by God1

On the rays game....you could probably make a good case for Shields being the best pitcher in baseball on the numbers. He ranks 9th in SIERA at 3.05. He pitches in the AL East. Verlander, Price, and Morrow are the only other AL pitchers ahead of him in SIERA with Morrow and Price at 3.01 and 3.04. Verlander is at 2.77 but pitches in an awfully weak offensive division compared to the AL East. Shields doesn't allow ANY SBs. That part of the game is completely neutralized.

Halladay/Kershaw are 1/2 in SIERA at 2.55 and 2.66 but both in the NL and both pitch in much weaker offensive divisions than shields

I agree on Shields...his history of late season slumps notwithstanding.

Thoughts on a ml parlay with philly/oakland?

I hate parlays but feel its appropriate in this case.

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by supr_villn

uh ,, wtf is that supposed 2 mean ??
are u saying u (actually) agree w/ me ? ..

no sir, it clearly says "it doesnt surprise me that you are on the wrong side"...but it a baseball gm so anything can happen...BOL

**supr_villn** · 08-03-11, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I agree on Shields...his history of late season slumps notwithstanding. Thoughts on a ml parlay with philly/oakland? I hate parlays but feel its appropriate in this case.

that`s funny ,, i LOVE parlays & h8 str8 bets lol ..
but i`m training myself 2 reverse that thinking

ps

PHI = dead $$$

**No coincidences** · 08-03-11, 01:22 PM

Leaned Cards but laid off -- looks like evil Wolf is on the hill today.

**blackeyeshamus** · 08-03-11, 01:24 PM

big dan! how the hell are you, big brah?
I'm rolling with the east bay bombers today:

oakland -150 3x
oakland RL +110 1x

betting against the sweep, betting on the better team,
betting against a s@#tbird relief pitcher starting in bedard's rotation spot,
betting on smoak's injury keeping him sidelined today (at least),
but most of all- I'm just straight fading the mariners!
good luck! good karma! buckle up, bros.

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Leaned Cards but laid off -- looks like evil Wolf is on the hill today.

naw not bad Wolf, just pissed off Cards. they live for this. prob get killed in fla 2marro if they win this

**No coincidences** · 08-03-11, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by God1

On the rays game....you could probably make a good case for Shields being the best pitcher in baseball on the numbers. He ranks 9th in SIERA at 3.05. He pitches in the AL East. Verlander, Price, and Morrow are the only other AL pitchers ahead of him in SIERA with Morrow and Price at 3.01 and 3.04. Verlander is at 2.77 but pitches in an awfully weak offensive division compared to the AL East. Shields doesn't allow ANY SBs. That part of the game is completely neutralized.

Halladay/Kershaw are 1/2 in SIERA at 2.55 and 2.66 but both in the NL and both pitch in much weaker offensive divisions than shields

Yeah, Shields has been outstanding lately.

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 01:25 PM

great start edwin

right down the pipe.

**supr_villn** · 08-03-11, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

no sir, it clearly says "it doesnt surprise me that you are on the wrong side"...but it a baseball gm so anything can happen...BOL

do u wanna bet on that ? ..

also :

STL 1
MIL 0
BOT 1ST

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 01:26 PM

just get threw 1 baby then you can cruise.

**BigDan** · 08-03-11, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by supr_villn

do u wanna bet on that ? ..

also :

STL 1
MIL 0
BOT 1ST

it 1 to 1 and i said this well before the gm started...

**supr_villn** · 08-03-11, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

great start edwin

right down the pipe.

lmao -> b4 i could even finish responding !! ..
MIL 1-1 now ,, & never looking back (u suckers)

''U
ARE
SO
DUMB''