Friday MLB Discussion

Deke101 · 06-26-08, 10:58 PM

I really like the Tigers for Friday especially at -127, and I assumed the line would be higher. Colorado on the road should always be +125 or more. And Detroit has it goin on right now winning 7 of their last 10.

ALSO:

The Rockies are 0-8 this season in Jimenez's road starts.

TIGERS ALL DAY.

ZBOIZ · 06-26-08, 11:00 PM

Take Florida Over and Angels Under

Deke101 · 06-26-08, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

Take Florida Over and Angels Under

The Florida Over looks solid, but the only thing is AZ is bad on the road and may not get the runs you need. I think Florida is the play and that they take this game pretty easily but the score may be 7-1. In AZ's last 6 games, which were road games as well and against good opponents, they have averaged only 2 runs per game. They just had a day off but it still scares me.

Leans so far:
Florida -123
Detroit -127

ZBOIZ · 06-26-08, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by Deke101

The Florida Over looks solid, but the only thing is AZ is bad on the road and may not get the runs you need. I think Florida is the play and that they take this game pretty easily but the score may be 7-1. In AZ's last 6 games, which were road games as well and against good opponents, they have averaged only 2 runs per game. They just had a day off but it still scares me.

Leans so far:
Florida -123
Detroit -127

The pitcher Florida throwin is not the caliber of pitchers Arizona been going against. I predict the score to be 8-5 Florida

ChuteBoxe · 06-26-08, 11:28 PM

Thinking Yankees in the day game, and possibly the Mets and/or the over in the night game of the Subway Series.

ZBOIZ · 06-26-08, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by ChuteBoxe

Thinking Yankees in the day game, and possibly the Mets and/or the over in the night game of the Subway Series.

This trend is very very very strong in MLB doubleheaders. Take the opposite of the 1ST total for the second game. TRUST ME!!

Capwizards · 06-26-08, 11:32 PM

TODAY'S FREE PLAY: 6/27/08 - ATL vs TOR UNDER 8.5
I am looking for this one to stay low here tonight. Jurrjens has quietly been one of the top young pitchers in the NL this season. He enters this game 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, McGowen has been a monster at home this season. He is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA at home on the season. The under is 6-1 in Jurrjens' last 7 road starts, and he should be able to quiet the recently hot Toronto bats. The under is 11-0-1 in McGowen's last 12 starts as a home favorite. Looking for a low score in this one here tonight.

ZBOIZ · 06-26-08, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by Capwizards

TODAY'S FREE PLAY: 6/27/08 - ATL vs TOR UNDER 8.5
I am looking for this one to stay low here tonight. Jurrjens has quietly been one of the top young pitchers in the NL this season. He enters this game 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, McGowen has been a monster at home this season. He is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA at home on the season. The under is 6-1 in Jurrjens' last 7 road starts, and he should be able to quiet the recently hot Toronto bats. The under is 11-0-1 in McGowen's last 12 starts as a home favorite. Looking for a low score in this one here tonight.

Toronto been hitting very well since they got the new manager

Capwizards · 06-26-08, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

Toronto been hitting very well since they got the new manager

Agreed - referenced that in my wrote up. Jurrjens will slow those bats down. Don't get too caught up in the recent hitting there. Toronto is built on pitching. Good luck.

ZBOIZ · 06-26-08, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by Capwizards

Agreed - referenced that in my wrote up. Jurrjens will slow those bats down. Don't get too caught up in the recent hitting there. Toronto is built on pitching. Good luck.

We'll see

Capwizards · 06-26-08, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

We'll see

Yes. We will see.

Wilforth · 06-26-08, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by Deke101

The Florida Over looks solid, but the only thing is AZ is bad on the road and may not get the runs you need. I think Florida is the play and that they take this game pretty easily but the score may be 7-1. In AZ's last 6 games, which were road games as well and against good opponents, they have averaged only 2 runs per game. They just had a day off but it still scares me.

Leans so far:
Florida -123
Detroit -127

If you parlay these 2, you'll cash it. No questions asked.

Deke101 · 06-26-08, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

If you parlay these 2, you'll cash it. No questions asked.

Yeah I already put a big play on Detroit.

pat venditto · 06-26-08, 11:51 PM

I really like the Tigers for Friday especially at -127, and I assumed the line would be higher. Colorado on the road should always be +125 or more. And Detroit has it goin on right now winning 7 of their last 10.

ALSO:

The Rockies are 0-8 this season in Jimenez's road starts.

TIGERS ALL DAY.

***following trends isnt handicapping. thats how u lose pal.***

cap the game find an edge. not saying its a bad play but dont take the tigers because of this reason its bad thinking.

Deke101 · 06-27-08, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by pat venditto

I really like the Tigers for Friday especially at -127, and I assumed the line would be higher. Colorado on the road should always be +125 or more. And Detroit has it goin on right now winning 7 of their last 10.

ALSO:

The Rockies are 0-8 this season in Jimenez's road starts.

TIGERS ALL DAY.

***following trends isnt handicapping. thats how u lose pal.***

cap the game find an edge. not saying its a bad play but dont take the tigers because of this reason its bad thinking.

Don't worry, their is plenty of things I looked at that are obvious.

Jimenez sucks look at his stats: 6.75 road ERA hasn't won on the road. He has a 4.96 ERA in night games.
Colorado is averaging 3.6 runs while giving up 4.7 runs - in their last 7 games.
Detroit is averaging 5.4 runs scored while allowing 4.6 in their last 7.

As relevant as statfox trends are,

Play Against
Road teams (COLORADO)
with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest

185-127 over the last 5 seasons.
59.3% (62.8 units)

Tigers hit .300 at home.
Bonine is inexperienced but has the better team behind him.

Colorado is clearly terrible, and putting their worst pitcher on the mound who is currently at 4-12 (-9.70 units) in his starts. Could easily be the worst pitcher to bet on this season. Therefore by common sense, if he never wins, then bet the other team.

Augustus · 06-27-08, 05:23 AM

Atlanta/Toronto Under 8½ +101

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 7-3-5 WL, 10-5 SU, 5-10-0 OU, 3.2 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 6-5-5 WL, 7-9 SU, 4-11-1 OU, 4.21 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 16 starts

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 2-0-1 WL, 3-0 SU, 1-2-0 OU, 2.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in last 3 starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 2-1-0 WL, 2-1 SU, 1-2-0 OU, 4 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in last 3 starts

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 2-3-2 WL, 2-5 SU, 1-6-0 OU, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 7 road starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 4-1-1 WL, 4-2 SU, 0-5-1 OU, 1.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 6 home starts

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 6-2-2 WL, 8-2 SU, 3-7-0 OU, 2.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 10 night starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 3-5-3 WL, 3-8 SU, 2-8-1 OU, 4.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 11 night starts

Trends:
Play Under 8.5 - The Blue Jays have posted a spectacular 16-9-1 (64 percent) under mark in their last 26 games after allowing 2 runs or less since season 2008.
Play Under 8.5 - The Blue Jays have posted a sparkling 26-8-1 (76.47 percent) under mark in their last 35 games as a home favorite of -125 to -150 since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Toronto Starter D. McGowan has posted a superb 18-2 (90 percent) under mark in their last 20 TSR when pitching off a team win since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Toronto Starter D. McGowan has posted an awesome 15-1-1 (93.75 percent) under mark in their last 17 TSR as a favorite since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Toronto Starter D. McGowan has posted a marvelous 21-6-1 (77.78 percent) under mark in their last 28 TSR in the night games since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Braves have posted a strong 49-21-3 (70 percent) under mark in their last 73 games when the total is 8.5 to 10 runs since season 2008.
Play Under 8.5 - The Braves have posted an outstanding 17-3 (85 percent) under mark in their last 20 games as a road underdog since season 2008.

Wilforth · 06-27-08, 06:20 AM

Augustus,
You've made my day!!!

Capwizards · 06-27-08, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by Augustus

Atlanta/Toronto Under 8½ +101

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 7-3-5 WL, 10-5 SU, 5-10-0 OU, 3.2 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 6-5-5 WL, 7-9 SU, 4-11-1 OU, 4.21 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 16 starts

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 2-0-1 WL, 3-0 SU, 1-2-0 OU, 2.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in last 3 starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 2-1-0 WL, 2-1 SU, 1-2-0 OU, 4 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in last 3 starts

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 2-3-2 WL, 2-5 SU, 1-6-0 OU, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 7 road starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 4-1-1 WL, 4-2 SU, 0-5-1 OU, 1.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 6 home starts

Atlanta Braves, J. Jurrjens: 6-2-2 WL, 8-2 SU, 3-7-0 OU, 2.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 10 night starts
Toronto Blue Jays, D. McGowan: 3-5-3 WL, 3-8 SU, 2-8-1 OU, 4.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 11 night starts

Trends:
Play Under 8.5 - The Blue Jays have posted a spectacular 16-9-1 (64 percent) under mark in their last 26 games after allowing 2 runs or less since season 2008.
Play Under 8.5 - The Blue Jays have posted a sparkling 26-8-1 (76.47 percent) under mark in their last 35 games as a home favorite of -125 to -150 since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Toronto Starter D. McGowan has posted a superb 18-2 (90 percent) under mark in their last 20 TSR when pitching off a team win since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Toronto Starter D. McGowan has posted an awesome 15-1-1 (93.75 percent) under mark in their last 17 TSR as a favorite since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Toronto Starter D. McGowan has posted a marvelous 21-6-1 (77.78 percent) under mark in their last 28 TSR in the night games since season 2007.
Play Under 8.5 - The Braves have posted a strong 49-21-3 (70 percent) under mark in their last 73 games when the total is 8.5 to 10 runs since season 2008.
Play Under 8.5 - The Braves have posted an outstanding 17-3 (85 percent) under mark in their last 20 games as a road underdog since season 2008.

Glad you are on board with my earlier post. Good luck tonight all!

AC1318 · 06-27-08, 08:12 AM

I am the only one liking colorado, sounds good to me. Enjoy the game.

rockies +116

fifawcs · 06-27-08, 08:20 AM

I know this sounds crazy, but I like Seattle +125

johnnymapalo · 06-27-08, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by fifawcs

I know this sounds crazy, but I like Seattle +125

No, it does not sound crazy. I'm playing Seattle as the underdog. They are suprisingly good at 1st game of series and plus they had a 1 days rest......

Clueless_Norway · 06-27-08, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by johnnymapalo

No, it does not sound crazy. I'm playing Seattle as the underdog. They are suprisingly good at 1st game of series and plus they had a 1 days rest......

..and they are batting better vs lefties than the Padres

Wilforth · 06-27-08, 09:04 AM

In fact, the Mariners can easily outscore the Padres.

Willie Bee · 06-27-08, 11:16 AM

Was trying to pick LT's brain earlier this morning about the Red Sox, Astros game tonight. Seems such a crap shoot with the way Matsuzaka stunk the joint up last weekend first coming back from the DL and Astros throwing Runelvys Hernandez to the lions to face Boston's lineup in his first MLB start since Sep '06. In the end, I finally decided that the Over 9½ was probably the only decent play. Dice K known for throwing a lot of slop off the plate and Astros lineup not known for being patient still makes me think that a Red Sox run line might be good on a small play.

Deke101 · 06-27-08, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by AC1318

I am the only one liking colorado, sounds good to me. Enjoy the game.

rockies +116

Any reasons? The only chance of me betting the Rockies on the Road (12-28 this season) with their worst pitcher on the mound (2-7 4.52 ERA, 4-12 in his appearances, and the Rockies are 0-8 in his road starts), is if I flipped a coin and it was heads 9 out of 10 times. I can see if people don't like Detroit and Bonine, but that would mean the game is an obvious pass in my opinion. I'm just curious to know a reason.

rake922 · 06-27-08, 12:31 PM

I'd be f'n shocked if Kazmir loses today

AC1318 · 06-27-08, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Deke101

Any reasons? The only chance of me betting the Rockies on the Road (12-28 this season) with their worst pitcher on the mound (2-7 4.52 ERA, 4-12 in his appearances, and the Rockies are 0-8 in his road starts), is if I flipped a coin and it was heads 9 out of 10 times. I can see if people don't like Detroit and Bonine, but that would mean the game is an obvious pass in my opinion. I'm just curious to know a reason.

for one jimenez was no terd last year
for 2 he has not been giving much run support
3rd he has been better of late, I don't know the era for sure but his whip is about 1 or less and I think the era is about 1.5 besides colorado is a healthy team and is very capable of beating detroit after bonine is pulled who is next in line another scrub. I think pitching wins games and detroit has none. colorado won't have to try to hard to get hits and although detroit offense is potent I am willing to bet they are neutralized by taking colo +119

Wilforth · 06-27-08, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by rake922

I'd be f'n shocked if Kazmir loses today

Were you shocked when he lost at home to the Astros recently?

AC1318 · 06-27-08, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by rake922

I'd be f'n shocked if Kazmir loses today

pitt smoked him once before for 9 runs to go on to win 18-2 6-11-05

j$ · 06-27-08, 02:56 PM

Cubs @ WSox

Cubs could be w/o Out Fuki .353 past 7 days , DeRosa and Theriot .417 past 7 days plus Eyre in the pen.

Cubs away vs RHSP 9-14

Runs scored breakdown

9runs -1 ( Lohse )
7runs -4 ( Morris , Moehler , Litsch , Baek)
6runs -1 ( Halladay)
5runs -1 (Billingsley)
4runs -1 (Sonnastine)

As we can see few real quality SP maybe 3 and 2 decent ones with 3 spot starters basically involved the 7 spots .

3runs -9 ( Zambrano won 3-0 vs Harang & Marquis 3-1 vs Penny)
2runs - 3
1run - 1
0runs - 2

So 16 of 23 4 runs scored or less and 15 of 23 3 runs or less

2-14 when scoring 4 runs or less and 2-13 3 runs or less
7-0 scoring 5 or more runs

Dempster vs Contreras .
Dempster did well getting out of jams think 3 DPs in the 1st four innings. Remember the 1st inning ? 1st and 2nd 1 out WSox hottest hitter Dye up and DP.....his last 10 game 7hrs and 17 rbi ....

Would expect Thome back.

Contreras wwas grooving for awile since mid April . Then suddenly WSox got hot and expectations were raised heading into DET and the team imploded . His stat line look terrible but for 4 innings he was very solid then in the 5th inning he slowly fell to pieces and he probably was left in to long 5 r & 9h from the start of the 5th inning on ...

Home vs Col 6.2 inn 3 earned runs (4runs) 7 hits pretty solid outing got hurt with some small ball ...walk a guy bunt him to 2nd or he stole 2nd and then a single ..

Last outing vs Cubs he started the b4th leading 4-1 and just feel to pieces....so as bad as the numbers have been he just fell apart twice on the road and cant say I know why. Its not like they beat him down from 1st pitch on.....

Lineups out Fuki is in there but the other 2 are out and WSox lineup is full...........

rake922 · 06-27-08, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Were you shocked when he lost at home to the Astros recently?

yep...

Capwizards · 06-27-08, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

Toronto been hitting very well since they got the new manager

I am not an I told you so type of guy - hope you had success tonight in your plays.