MLB 4-Play Saturday (86-102, -10.14)

fearless · 06-07-08, 08:07 AM

LT, if you're making bets based on team's bullpens, why not bet the last four innings rather than the whole game. Bookmaker/Cris offers lines for the last four innings.

fifawcs · 06-07-08, 09:00 AM

I don't think I agree with any of your plays today. The best out of those 4 would be the under. I feel like all of these have the chance of winning, but I have no confidence in either side. For example, Kyle Kendrick is not a very good pitcher but he has a great bullpen and offense behind him. At the same time, Jojo Reyes is decent and is at home, where the Braves team is dominant.

Cubs are the same deal. Carlos Zambrano is great, but he isn't at home and he is facing Derek Lowe. He may be inconsistent, but he is also very dominant at home. The Dodger offense is also much better at home.

And the Royals I just view as a crapshoot. If they win, it will be purely luck or a bull call by the umpire as yesterday was.

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 09:23 AM

fearless,

Because I bet a lot of underdogs and I would probably lose a lot of value betting second halves, especially if my dog is winning at the time.

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 09:25 AM

And I should add that only BPS plays are based strictly on bullpens, and I am not playing any BPS plays today.

buztah · 06-07-08, 09:27 AM

Sharp title to this thread, Mr. Big Shot.

fearless · 06-07-08, 09:28 AM

No problem, I'm new to baseball betting and I'm learning, asking questions, etc. Thanks.

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by fifawcs

I don't think I agree with any of your plays today. The best out of those 4 would be the under. I feel like all of these have the chance of winning, but I have no confidence in either side. For example, Kyle Kendrick is not a very good pitcher but he has a great bullpen and offense behind him. At the same time, Jojo Reyes is decent and is at home, where the Braves team is dominant.

Cubs are the same deal. Carlos Zambrano is great, but he isn't at home and he is facing Derek Lowe. He may be inconsistent, but he is also very dominant at home. The Dodger offense is also much better at home.

And the Royals I just view as a crapshoot. If they win, it will be purely luck or a bull call by the umpire as yesterday was.

fifa,

Royals are not a crapshoot at all. Bannister is literally night and day when it comes to night and day....LOL

He is 5-1 with a 2.16 ERA in the day and 0-5 at night. He already beat the Yankees once this season allowing only two runs and five hits, and I think Pettitte's best days are long behind him.

As for the other plays, Zambrano has allowed a TOTAL of three earned runs in four starts (29.2 innings) at LA and Kendrick is three for three in Quality Starts vs. Atlanta, and he now has the best bulllpen in baseball behind him, which was not always the case.

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 09:39 AM

Plus its alomost always a good idea to bet against the Yankees from a value standpoint.

fifawcs · 06-07-08, 09:40 AM

I'm not on any of those games so good luck.

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 09:41 AM

You too fifa

pat venditto · 06-07-08, 02:53 PM

how are u a professional bettor you dont win

Perl · 06-07-08, 03:03 PM

LT, does Wakefield have any other throw besides the knuckleball?

ryanXL977 · 06-07-08, 03:08 PM

he has a slow curve too

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 03:09 PM

pat,

Check my CBB amd NHL records here. NBA was flat, but hey +1.70 is +1.70 goddamnit.

ryanXL977 · 06-07-08, 03:10 PM

i find lt to be a king at nba and nhl
dunno about his mlb yet......
he sure loves him some blue jays

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 03:10 PM

Yes to Wake,

Slow curve and 75mph "fast"ball.

rake922 · 06-07-08, 04:06 PM

Do you lay the same amount on all the games

j$ · 06-07-08, 05:26 PM

Jeez your getting murdered today..Or should I say we got murdered in the Cubs game

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 06:50 PM

rake,

Same % of my BR on 99% of my plays. Extra 1% or 1.5% of BR on the other 1%.

Lakers ML in Game 2 falls into the Extra 1% category, that's how strongly I feel about them and how rare these sprecial plays are.

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 06:51 PM

I got raped today. Royals loss hurt a lot more than Cubs did.

j$ · 06-07-08, 07:04 PM

Lakers game 2 is a gift of free money