Gomez Betting System

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 11:38 AM

All Plays are 2 Units

Deke101 · 05-27-08, 11:41 AM

Looks like a winning system Gomez. What are the qualifications for the plays?

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 11:45 AM

Its basically a value system. I cap the games by entering the information about the teams into a formula and it spits out a % for each team to win the game. I use that % and compare it to the line. If the % is favorable then i compare it to what the line is and what the public is betting on. The Line cannot be greater than +160. And the majority of the bets are on dogs. If it falls within the certain percentage and is a strong enough play then i bet the game.

The only problem is i cannot go back further than the dates i have information for. so i will be tracking it as i go. So far it has been a great start though and i hope it continues

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 11:57 AM

Tex is a possible system 1 play

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 12:00 PM

SF and Hou possible system 2 plays

strictlywinners · 05-27-08, 02:25 PM

You should posts what the plays are when you have them and when they are definite, if you give us possible play here and possible play there it is then ambiguous because if the game wins you can say it was a play and if it loses you can say "oh it didn't qualify"

Just a suggestion to help increase your credibility. Good luck kid I love Astros today its very strong play you should make that definite instead of possible.

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

You should posts what the plays are when you have them and when they are definite, if you give us possible play here and possible play there it is then ambiguous because if the game wins you can say it was a play and if it loses you can say "oh it didn't qualify"

Just a suggestion to help increase your credibility. Good luck kid I love Astros today its very strong play you should make that definite instead of possible.

Thanks for the advice, i do agree how that could be confusing. I just didn't want to wait til an hour before gametime to post the plays without an idea of what they might be. I will be make sure to be very specific which are my official plays. And will not list the possible ones to avoid any confusion.

strictlywinners · 05-27-08, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by C_Gomez

Thanks for the advice, i do agree how that could be confusing. I just didn't want to wait til an hour before gametime to post the plays without an idea of what they might be. I will be make sure to be very specific which are my official plays. And will not list the possible ones to avoid any confusion.

Thanks my man oh and feel free to list possible I get ansy too and sometimes jump the gun on my plays. As long as you make it clear which plays are official plays before game time you should be straight. Looking foward to comparing your plays to my own.

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 04:27 PM

SYSTEM 1 Play

***PIT +142***

No other plays at this time

strictlywinners · 05-27-08, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by C_Gomez

SYSTEM 1 Play

***PIT +142***

No other plays at this time

Question about system. You said you put stats in computer program right. What stats do you include as your inputs, and did you design the program if you did I would love to learn from you, right now I have my own function that I developed it doesn't deal with stats but rather passed results. We must no the pass to predict the future, and I am someone that does not believe in randomness over time everything develops a pattern everything happens in cycles. If I could just have computer program it would save me alot of time from manually doing the calculations.

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Question about system. You said you put stats in computer program right. What stats do you include as your inputs, and did you design the program if you did I would love to learn from you, right now I have my own function that I developed it doesn't deal with stats but rather passed results. We must no the pass to predict the future, and I am someone that does not believe in randomness over time everything develops a pattern everything happens in cycles. If I could just have computer program it would save me alot of time from manually doing the calculations.

yeah it is a big time saver to have the formula you can put the information into and have it give you a number, i didn't set up the program, a good friend of mine did who is a wiz with computers. I tried to involve everything that i could in the formula. Because i have it as a program i have the luxury of putting in all the information i feel comes into play in the course of a baseball game and it doesn't require much more time to put it in.
The stats that i include each get a % of value of a game. Each part has a certain % effect on the game i feel and i give each section a percentage and when the calculations are done it adds up to out of 100% and each team gets a % of that 100%. A team may get 55% and the other 45%. I use that to compare to the line and that is how i formulate possible bets.
I also think that by doing this you can see the a pattern of who will win the game on a more consistent basis, because it is all based on physical numbers that can tell you about each team in this given situation. And i think that is why if you really work hard to develop a system that you can input information and get a consistent result you can be really successful at sports betting. And thats what i hope i have finally put together.

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 05:15 PM

SYSTEM 1 Plays

***PIT +142***
***TEX +135***

strictlywinners · 05-27-08, 05:26 PM

Yes I understand the theory behind it that if your numbers say that a team is 50% to win the game and the line is +130 it is probably good idea to take the team +130 because you are getting better odds. Or if a team comes out to be 75% to win and they are only -200 they would probably be a good play. I understand the analysis, I am much more interested in the inputs that you are using and the caclulations that your program is performing, I'm kind of math junkie, I want to see if this is similar to something that I used once before, that was absolutely golden for about 3 weeks and then made me lose my shirt, and if it is different I want to see what you did differently to make yours a profitable model.

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 05:41 PM

Well my important factors are things like, starting pitchers(obviously), recent success, and H/A performance, also it is important to see how they pitch to Righties and Lefties, and what the match ups are, previous match ups between hitters and pitchers, a huge one for me is the bullpen, especially in games where big name pitchers are not going, it comes down to the bullpen, again looking at the same types of things that i look at with starting pitchers, next hitters success against L/R handed pitchers, recent success, H/A, also how the team has been doing recently and the success they have been having and against who, sometimes you look at a team on a 3 game winning streak and that has so much value, but you have to understand who those 3 games were against, if they just swept the nationals that doesn't mean that much, i think it is important to be very in depth with the stats, looking at general ones will do you no good, so my suggestion is to be as detailed as possible, and really spend a lot of time on it, your not going to build a dominate system overnight, to be really successful you have to go beyond what a normal better does,
I am also very big into numbers and very good with numbers and it takes a complex system to be successful, vegas isn't going to lose to many people

strictlywinners · 05-27-08, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by C_Gomez

Well my important factors are things like, starting pitchers(obviously), recent success, and H/A performance, also it is important to see how they pitch to Righties and Lefties, and what the match ups are, previous match ups between hitters and pitchers, a huge one for me is the bullpen, especially in games where big name pitchers are not going, it comes down to the bullpen, again looking at the same types of things that i look at with starting pitchers, next hitters success against L/R handed pitchers, recent success, H/A, also how the team has been doing recently and the success they have been having and against who, sometimes you look at a team on a 3 game winning streak and that has so much value, but you have to understand who those 3 games were against, if they just swept the nationals that doesn't mean that much, i think it is important to be very in depth with the stats, looking at general ones will do you no good, so my suggestion is to be as detailed as possible, and really spend a lot of time on it, your not going to build a dominate system overnight, to be really successful you have to go beyond what a normal better does,
I am also very big into numbers and very good with numbers and it takes a complex system to be successful, vegas isn't going to lose to many people

yup you are right infact vegas only loses to about 7% of us. Thank you very much for the insight. I have to see how you do this season and then maybe I will consider combining your system and my own and going double on the games that match. Good luck my friend thank you very much for everything. If you could private message me an example of the math involved that would be great, like I said I am statistics and probabilty junky. Almost to the point where it drives me crazy sometimes.

C_Gomez · 05-27-08, 09:30 PM

1-1 on the day would have been nice to get them both

System #1
27-19
+22.76 Units

System #2
4-2
+7.22 Units

C_Gomez · 05-28-08, 02:37 PM

Did anyone else have problems this morning?
I couldn't get on to the site... I apologize for the missed play this morning.. hopefully the other 3 will all be winners as well

System 1 Plays for today
BAL +125
CWS +132
FLA +147
TOR +118

strictlywinners · 05-28-08, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by C_Gomez

Did anyone else have problems this morning?
I couldn't get on to the site... I apologize for the missed play this morning.. hopefully the other 3 will all be winners as well

System 1 Plays for today
BAL +125
CWS +132
FLA +147
TOR +118

Baltimore is Solid, congrats on whitesox, tornonto is a maybe for me.

C_Gomez · 05-28-08, 02:40 PM

Hopefully Bal can carry over some magic from last night!

C_Gomez · 05-29-08, 02:03 AM

4th Consecutive Winning Day

System #1
29-21
+23.76 Units

BAL +125
CWS +132
FLA +147
TOR +118

System #2
4-2
+7.22 Units

fifawcs · 05-29-08, 10:17 AM

I like your white sox.

strictlywinners · 05-29-08, 10:25 AM

Doing good kid, are you ready for our head to head duel.

C_Gomez · 05-29-08, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Doing good kid, are you ready for our head to head duel.

Absolutely... may the best system win!

C_Gomez · 05-29-08, 02:36 PM

ATL, TOR and WASH were all very close to qualifying for the system... wish ATL would have as they are pounding MIL

C_Gomez · 05-29-08, 02:38 PM

SYSTEM 2 PLAY

***COL +147 is a Play***

C_Gomez · 05-29-08, 03:03 PM

System 1 Plays

Lad +124
Min +108
Cws +125

C_Gomez · 05-29-08, 09:47 PM

System #1
31-22
+26.42 Units

2-1 Day and 5th consecutive winning day +2.66 Units

C_Gomez · 05-29-08, 10:24 PM

System #2
4-3
+5.22 Units

0-1 today

strictlywinners · 05-29-08, 11:05 PM

Very good day my man, I just realized that I forgot to post toronto as a play today. I have asked Picoman to post a thread Strictly vs Gomez starting tommorrow obviously any plays that are not posted will not count. So it is my request that we start tommorrow so I can pay close attention to make sure I have all my plays in. I figured we would have Picoman post the head to head thread that way it is an unbiased third party. Great day for you kid, keep it up, and let the games begin.

C_Gomez · 05-30-08, 02:04 PM

yeah i messed up one yesterday to.. LAD fell out of the system.. posted plays to early .. but what can you do... i will still take a winning day, i sent him a message back and am ready for the head to head... good luck

strictlywinners · 05-30-08, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by C_Gomez

yeah i messed up one yesterday to.. LAD fell out of the system.. posted plays to early .. but what can you do... i will still take a winning day, i sent him a message back and am ready for the head to head... good luck

Ok my friend, play time is over, it is time for the real thing, I have my 3 plays posted for today, I don't think there are going to be any adds because nothing else was even close to fitting the criteria. This is where friends become enemies in the CLASH OF THE TITANS. I trust your lines to be honest as will mine, I suggested that the race be to 50 units with no limitation on the # of plays in any given day and 1 unit to be put on each of the plays. I wish you the best of luck and if either one of us makes it to the 50 unit goal we can consider ourselves in an elite class of handicappers, truly the best of the best.

C_Gomez · 05-30-08, 03:39 PM

I will continue to post in here as well because i would like to continue to keep a running tally.

System 1 plays
MIN +100
SEA +101
HOU +131
LAD +132
ATL +144
FLA +145

C_Gomez · 05-30-08, 05:15 PM

Sd +115

C_Gomez · 05-31-08, 02:40 PM

System #1
33-27
+21.36 Units

System #2
4-3
+5.22 Units

SYSTEM 1
LAD -117
SD+105