MLB 6-Pack Friday (51-56, -1.33)

supra23 · 05-16-08, 04:54 AM

LT, why o why do u have to pick the Rays today!...after i see rjt on stlouis, i decide im gonna go big on it, but then i see u now on the opposite side. Now im effen confused

LT Profits · 05-16-08, 04:58 AM

Rays are my POD in SBR Best Bet thread too, just to add to your confusion.

treece · 05-16-08, 05:55 AM

I like the Rays also, you gotta go with the hot team. St. Louis can't buy a win it seems.

BuddyBear · 05-16-08, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by supra23

LT, why o why do u have to pick the Rays today!...after i see rjt on stlouis, i decide im gonna go big on it, but then i see u now on the opposite side. Now im effen confused

Don't let the opinions of a gaming forum poster sway you one way or another.

Sports gambling is a cut throat business man. You realize that when one gambler wins, another gambler will lose on that same game. We're all friends on here till the games start. After that, it's every gambler for themselves

strictlywinners · 05-16-08, 09:56 AM

Love the Yankees play.

treece · 05-16-08, 10:28 AM

I'm still trying to figure this BPS system out. So you take a top ten bullpen team thats lower than -130 vs a bottom ten bullpen team right? so today its baltimore, tampa bay, la dodgers and chi white sox. how do the yankees and a's qualify?

LT Profits · 05-16-08, 11:20 AM

treece,

No. You take top 10 lower than - 130 (or + anything) vs. non-top 10.

LT Profits · 05-16-08, 11:23 AM

With O's now qualifying, there are eight BPS plays as of now. Watch out for line moves though. Results are based on lines posted at covers (Pinnacle closing).

LT Profits · 05-16-08, 11:27 AM

Correction, I had O's qualifying all along, so it is still seven as of now. The possible eighth that does not qualify yet is Florida.

Doc JS · 05-16-08, 12:17 PM

Major League Baseball Bullpen Statistics Team ERA
1 Philadelphia 2.65
2 Oakland 2.94
3 Toronto 3.09
4 LA Dodgers 3.12
5 Tampa Bay 3.18
6 NY Yankees 3.23
7 Florida 3.32
8 Baltimore 3.38
9 Minnesota 3.38
10 Chi. White Sox 3.49
11. Chicago Cubs 3.50

BPS Plays for Friday: (all lines from BJ)
Baltimore -128
NY Yankees +131
Oakland +138
Tampa Bay -108
Minn. Twins +124
LA Dodgers +115
Chicago White Sox +111

Good luck, all!

Doc

bigugly · 05-16-08, 05:25 PM

LT, did you ever check BPS results in seasons previous to 2005?

treece · 05-16-08, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

treece,

No. You take top 10 lower than - 130 (or + anything) vs. non-top 10.

oh ok. however if you bet a top 10 vs a bottom 10 you'd probably hit at a higher percentage.

LT Profits · 05-17-08, 04:39 AM

bigugly,

No, that is a job for the off-season. Remember that this is not simple backtracking, as I would have to go back at look at bullpen ERAs ENTERING each day, NOT the full-season numbers.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

treece,

Yes to higher percentage, but top 10 vs. middle 10 contributed to the +97 average too, so why leave money on the table? The goal is to make as many units as possible, not have a higher win % with fewer units won.

ChuteBoxe · 05-17-08, 05:00 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

bigugly,

No, that is a job for the off-season. Remember that this is not simple backtracking, as I would have to go back at look at bullpen ERAs ENTERING each day, NOT the full-season numbers.

Big ugly,

If you've never back-tested a formula or system, that has a stipulation like LT's, consider yourself lucky. When you're all happy that you finally finished with one year, you just remembered that you have 9 more to go. Ask Dio, I think he remembers, I was pulling my hair out, because I would work on it until I freaked out and couldn't take any more each day. I just wanted to get it done. There is no possible way you could do this during the season, unless you make no contact with the outside world.

LT Profits · 05-17-08, 05:30 AM

Not to mention my three kids I want to spend a FEW minitues with each day.

It's no big deal ignoring the wife though!

(Just kidding honey. Now stop swinging that pan at me)

Doc JS · 05-17-08, 07:05 AM

Nice day for the BPS, LT!! I'd take 4-2 every day for the rest of the season!!

Originally posted by Doc JS

BPS Plays for Friday: (all lines from BJ)
Baltimore -128 Winner
NY Yankees +131 cancelled
Oakland +138 Loser
Tampa Bay -108 Winner
Minn. Twins +124 Winner
LA Dodgers +115 Loser
Chicago White Sox +111 Winner

Doc

LT Profits · 05-17-08, 07:11 AM

um Doc,

Unfortunately it was actually 3-3 for -0.02. Remember covers uses Pinnacle closing, and system lost a winner when O's closed at -131 and it "gained" an ugly loser when Marlins closed at -128. FYI, Twins were +126 and White Sox ended up favored, thus the -0.02.

Doc JS · 05-17-08, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

um Doc,

Unfortunately it was actually 3-3 for -0.02. Remember covers uses Pinnacle closing, and system lost a winner when O's closed at -131 and it "gained" an ugly loser when Marlins closed at -128. FYI, Twins were +126 and White Sox ended up favored, thus the -0.02.

LT,
As a point of clarification, do you not bet the BPS until the closing number or do you just not count it unless it stays below -130? Yesterday, I bet Baltimore when it was -128. And didn't bet Florida because when I looked at it, I think they were still at -140, so I passed.

Thanks,

Doc

LT Profits · 05-17-08, 07:56 AM

Yes, which is why my actual results yesterday were better than the system results, since I used Baltimore and did not use Florida. Ideally though, you should wait until the last possible minute if a game is close, but life doesn't always allow for that.

For record-keeping purposes however, I have to use lines from covers for sake of consistency, as they have always been my stats source. The last-three-year records were all based on bullpen ERA pulled from covers each day and based on their lines.

Doc JS · 05-17-08, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes, which is why my actual results yesterday were better than the system results, since I used Baltimore and did not use Florida. Ideally though, you should wait until the last possible minute if a game is close, but life doesn't always allow for that.

For record-keeping purposes however, I have to use lines from covers for sake of consistency, as they have always been my stats source. The last-three-year records were all based on bullpen ERA pulled from covers each day and based on their lines.

LT,
Thanks for the clarification! I thought we were pretty much talking about semantics/record keeping.

Doc

bigugly · 05-18-08, 06:43 AM

Oh, I am sure it is a ton of work, and I was not suggesting you do it right at this moment. I appreciate the work you've already put into this.