Thoughts on SF/Houston?

[billmunny]

What do you guys think of this for the Houston/SF game?

under 8 (+106) 1.89 units to win 2 units
Houston ML (+140) 2 units to win 2.8 units

I can't think of many likely scenarios where both bets lose, can think of quite a few where both win. (I actually think that both will win, or I wouldn't be betting this.) And-- barring both losing-- I'm only risking the juice if the total goes over 8.

[LB]

Think I will be with you on the under 8, don't see many runs in this one

[element1286]

I like the under.

[mofome]

Lincecum/Sampson

Lincecum: --- Sampson
k/9 9.48 --- 4.09
BB/9 3.22 --- 2.45
HR/9 0.54 --- 0.55
BABIP .321 --- .355

LD% 19.5 --- 23.1
GB% 45.1 --- 52.9
FB% 35.3 --- 24.0

What he throws:
FB 67% --- 66.6%
Slider 1.9% --- 7.5%
CT 0.0% --- 9.0%
CB 10.8% --- 13.4%
CH 20.3 --- 3.5%
Strikes 522 --- 333
Balls 287 --- 190

Splits (Sampson)
ERA: Sampson gets killed vs. righties; does well vs. lefties
K/9: poor vs. each
BB/9: walks lefties at an awful rate. Doesn’t walk righties
K/BB: great vs. right, poor vs. lefties
HR/9: good vs. righties, average vs. lefties.
Ave: Righties around .350 off of him, lefties closer to .285

Splits (Lincecum)
ERA: Great vs. each, better vs. lefties.
K/9: good vs. each
BB/9: average vs. each
K/BB: good vs. each
HR/9: very good vs. lefties; decent vs. righties.
Ave: decent vs. each

Batter vs. Pitcher
(Houston vs. Lincecum)
Tim has dominated this Houston lineup. In 37 Abs the Stros have 0 HRs and 0 doubles off of Tim. Their team BA is just .162 and their team OPS is only .416. The right hander has 10Ks and 2 walks against this roster.

(SF vs. Sampson)
SF has no HRs off Sampson in 42 team AB’s. Winn, Molina, Lewis and Rowand have each his Chris pretty well in their career. This roster only has a .707 OPS against Sampson.


plays:
sf
under

[chipski]

was thinking giants win and 4 game series result is 2 - 2 . liked under at first , then starting thinking about how hot the astros bats have been . so then became unsure . what this 4 game series has cost me thus far = needed the astros +1.5 in game 2 and giants won 4 - 2 .
one of the reasons i became concerned about the under here is because it is a daytime game , could be serious bullpen blunders , each team pen could give up something crazy .

i realize when people see lincecums name as the starter against a team that is streotyped as offensively challenged (as well as both teams being offensively challenged) it makes the under seem the play . would of course be better if the o/u were 9 , not 8 .

go with it though since you like it . i want to go with giants and under myself just for the hell of it . tejeda and wiggington not starting ?

[pimike]

Houston has been hitting yet Lincum has peached great tough call here.

I kinda lean towards good pitcher at home Giants is my play



Thanks for the stats buddy very helpful

[billmunny]

Thanks for the stats, mofome!

I guess that I'm just convinced that the least likely scenario for this game is for the Giants to win AND have a team total over 4 (which is what would be required for me to lose more than just the juice). The Giants have only won and had a team total over 4 five times so far this year in 41 games. (Yes, two of them were Lincecum starts...against STL an Piniero, who gave up 6 to the Giants in 3.2 innings, and against PHI and Moyer who gave up 6 in 4 innings.)

Sampson just pitched a great game against LA, and he's got an ERA of only 1.50 against the Giants. I imagine this game coming down to the pens, and Houston's got the edge there-- both in pitching and hitting.

Just my $0.02.

[billmunny]

tejeda and wiggington not starting ?

I had missed that info about tejada's "day of rest."

[mofome]

Thanks for the stats, mofome!

I guess that I'm just convinced that the least likely scenario for this game is for the Giants to win AND have a team total over 4 (which is what would be required for me to lose more than just the juice). The Giants have only won and had a team total over 4 five times so far this year in 41 games. (Yes, two of them were Lincecum starts...against STL an Piniero, who gave up 6 to the Giants in 3.2 innings, and against PHI and Moyer who gave up 6 in 4 innings.)

Sampson just pitched a great game against LA, and he's got an ERA of only 1.50 against the Giants. I imagine this game coming down to the pens, and Houston's got the edge there-- both in pitching and hitting.

Just my $0.02.

def advantage in the pen for houston. Linc has matched up well with the houston lineup while sampson has been hit hard by a couple giants. neither sample size is huge, but there is a definite advantage. it seems like you're trying to hedge a play here, just go with the one you like the most and let it ride. baseball is an unpredictable game with erros and such. Neither one of these guys is likely to give up a hr, and that also favors the giants who aren't built to hit the deep ball. The park is huge and fly ball pitchers get away with more while other pitchers can get eaten up by the large OF.

either way, i enjoy reading the thoughts and any time you or anyone wants to discuss a game, im in.

[Willie Bee]

Having Tejada sitting to start this game is a bigger reason to play against Houston than Lincecum's numbers against Houston, in my opinion. Go back and look through history, and the Astros have always done very poorly against solid young pitchers the first couple of times they faced him, but they eventually do get to them. Only one I can think of that went the other way was Tom Glavine who Houston pounded the first couple of times they saw him before Glavine gained the upper hand.

But with the Astros being pretty hot right now, I wouldn't lay -150 chalk against them right now. The Under is the only way I'd play this one.

[pimike]

Thanks for the info Willie

[ryanXL977]

i am gonna go to the game
its hot as shit here
hotter than ever
ball may fly today

[ryanXL977]

i am goin with houston
they are a better team
lincecum should allow 2 runs or so in 6 innings
then the stros have the pen advantage

[MonkeyF0cker]

I agree with Willie. I think the only way to play it would be the under but I don't like it much either. The Giants have scored 3 or more in 12 of their last 13 and Sampson is probably not going to shut them out. They could easily get to him for 5 or more. I could actually see this ending 5-4 Giants or so.

[ryanXL977]

no bengie molina
thats a big loss

[xstud]

1 unit under 8

[xstud]

and the unders are ****ed

[billmunny]

Wow.

[mofome]

Neither one of these guys is likely to give up a hr, and that also favors the giants who aren't built to hit the deep ball. The park is huge and fly ball pitchers get away with more while other pitchers can get eaten up by the large OF.

lots of singles and doubles so far for SF. A little predictable, but you really never know.

[ryanXL977]

i am goin with houston
they are a better team
lincecum should allow 2 runs or so in 6 innings
then the stros have the pen advantage

bullpen time baby

[Willie Bee]

I couldn't have been more wrong about the total in this one, but a great win for the Astros

[ryanXL977]

the ball flies out here in the daytime

night it doesnt

[mofome]

unbelievable!

[billmunny]

The Giants have only won and had a team total over 4 five times so far this year in 41 games.

Whew. I'll take it any way I can get it.