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Not a problem at all man. V1 MLB usually has around 40-50 plays a year so it's nice to add in a few more with V3.Comment -
Wallco MLB PLU$$$ - Plays for 5/9/11
2011 System to date: 43-1
System profit/loss: +47.12 units (finished series)
Since my first post: +26.85 units (28-1) (fin. series)
Current open series: 0
N.Y. Mets @ Colorado (M/L) (A) *Official* (8:40 pm EDT)
N.Y. Mets @ Colorado (-1½) (A) *Official* (8:40 pm EDT)
** Do not place any wagers on teams unless the word “Official” appears next to the game. All lines and standings are based on final lines on ScoresandOdds.com. Some of the unofficial plays may change to the other team by game time. Official plays will not change. Keep checking for updated posts until all games are marked “official”. If your book is offering (+1½) on the (-1½) plays above, buy the alternate line for (-1½) on the team I have listed at (-1½), not the other team. NEVER PLAY (+1½) LINE ON ANY GAME IN THIS SYSTEMComment -
This is still a JM MLB thread right?Comment -
Of course it is. There are two systems in this thread.
JM MLB and Wallco.Comment -
I would say good luck Wallco crew, but I am on the Mutts ML, I barely ever play that +1.5 garbage, too much juice for me.Comment -
Actually the juice on the Mets RL +1 1/2 was very nice (-135).Comment -
That is pretty good stevex, tonight is a good night to take the +1.5, I did with my SBR points.
But with the ML I only have to risk such a minimal amount to win a unit, not crazy about this series anyhow so not going crazy. I was able to cash in big on the Tampa series.
I look to go bigger when the RPI is more favorable.Comment -
...that's what I get for ignorin'... er... not listening to Wallco, and followin' morrison... damnit.
Lookin' forward to tomorrow Wallco!Comment -
Current Bankroll: $5,145.00
JM MLB Record: 3 - 0
Current Win/Loss Amount: +$145.00
4. [A] Mets +1 1/2 (-135): $264.00 TO WIN $196.00 WIN
5. [A] Angels -142 ML (Think of it as a free bet, ie: "Pre-V3."): $263.00 TO WIN $187.00 LOSS
Current Bankroll: $5,078.00
JM MLB Record: 4 - 0
Current Win/Loss Amount: +$78.00
Series pending: [B] Angels
Tomorrow will be an official V3 play on the Angels. Best of luck!Last edited by stevex; 05-09-11, 11:55 PM.Comment -
JM-
We have our first V3 Edition on Tues betting on LAA to BEAT CWS on the ML. I'm getting good price through TAB so I'm on it. Never tried the V3 but I'll give it a shot.Comment -
The first V3 is a nice opportunity to cash betting on the Angels. Thanks for the advise StevexComment -
Yes so far : V1 is 4 - 0
V2 is 1 - 0
V3 is 0 - 0
Angel will be the first Version 3 this year, wish everybody good luck......
N:B: For record purpose we have 2 dog play so far one win on moneyline while the other win on Runline.......In a long run we will see effectivess of RunLine filter may be it worth or not......Last edited by lawalahmed; 05-10-11, 02:53 AM.Comment -
See....listen to Wallco...both sides cashedComment -
Wallco MLB PLU$$$
2011 System to date: 44-1
System profit/loss: +48.12 units (finished series)
Since my first post: +27.85 units (29-1) (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.00 units)
(5/9/11) Colorado (M/L) (A) – Win
(5/9/11) Colorado (-1½) (A) – Loss
(A) 24-22
(B) 9-12
(C) 7-5
(D) 4-1
Games for (5/10/11):
N.Y. Mets @ Colorado (-1½) (B) *Official* (8:40 pm EDT)
Boston @ Toronto (M/L) (A) *Official* (7:05 pm EDT)
Detroit @ Minnesota (M/L) (A) (8:10 pm EDT)
Detroit @ Minnesota (-1½) (A) (8:10 pm EDT)
** Do not place any wagers on teams unless the word “Official” appears next to the game. All lines and standings are based on final lines on ScoresandOdds.com. Some of the unofficial plays may change to the other team by game time. Official plays will not change. Keep checking for updated posts until all games are marked “official”. If your book is offering (+1½) on the (-1½) plays above, buy the alternate line for (-1½) on the team I have listed at (-1½), not the other team. NEVER PLAY (+1½) LINE ON ANY GAME IN THIS SYSTEM.Comment -
Guess we'll have to get the Mets in the "B" bet today!!
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NO! If you are following the JM system, you should have taken the Mets on the +1.5 run line yesterday and you would have won the A bet. JM's V1 system states that if the team you are supposed to play is the underdog, then you play them on the +1.5 Run Line. Yesterday the Mets +1.5 run line was -135.Comment -
Originally posted by Hot>
I'm not so certain that's what he's saying. If he was, i agree completely.
I think he's just saying that if you were going to play both sides of the run-line and are really committed to both systems, then you might as well not bet $130 to win $100 (+1.5) and $100 to win $115 (-1.5). If you win the -1.5 and lose the +1.5 you have now paid the difference in juice and are net down money going into the B-Bet.
I think he's just saying you might as well not place a bet when 2 systems conflict, and then start on the B-Bet. Last night is a great example... I would have missed out on the +1.5 win and missed out on the -1.5 loss, so I'd basically be at $0 gained, $0 loss, which is the same situation as everyone who bet. So today I'd be starting on the B-Bet and would wager $200 (-1.5); which is the same wager I would have made had I been betting both sides on the A-Bet. The result would be a win netting me 2 units ($200); and put me in the same situation as if I had bet on the A-Bet's that canceled eachother out. The only difference is I save the juice on the A-bet that occurs from betting both sides.
I think this guy is a smart better, his comment was just misunderstood.
To clarify: You would start on the B-Bet for whatever system lost the A and follow-it to the end. In this case Hot> would be following Wallco's; but if Wallco would have won the A, he'd be following JM MLB.Last edited by Kitar; 05-10-11, 08:00 AM.Comment -
JM MLB System
2011 Official season series record 4-0 (v1 and v2)
Unofficial series 2-0
V3 system 0-0
Official Plays
(5/9/2011) NY Mets @ Colorado R/L (A) Win
Unofficial Plays
(5/9/2011) Chicago White Sox @ LA Angels R/L (A) Win
Next Plays
(5/10/2011) LA Angels (.529)vs Chicago White Sox (.484) M/L (A) V3 system bet. There are only 2 plays with this system. If necessary the (B) bet would be (5/11).
Notes: Congrats on the plays last night if you played them. I played COL M/L and NYM R/L and hit both. We've got 2 more system plays coming up on Friday. Let's go pick up another win today. GL allComment -
Hey Stevex. GL today man. Looks like we both play to win about the same amount ~$200; and I used to have a very similar bankroll. On the JM stuff the juice we typically get on a series puts about $4K at risk as cumulative loss during a series if we follow it and lose on a C-Bet. Let's hope that C-Bet loss is about 20 to 30+ games away.
I ended up cutting my targeted win to $100 to avoid losing my bankroll on 1 series; I'm above $18K now and am back to targeting $200. GL today... I have had great success with V3's; and I love your strategy of betting against the V3 occuring... it's a high percentage bet.Comment -
If bet the right way:I'm not so certain that's what he's saying. If he was, i agree completely.
I think he's just saying that if you were going to play both sides of the run-line and are really committed to both systems, then you might as well not bet $130 to win $100 (+1.5) and $100 to win $115 (-1.5). If you win the -1.5 and lose the +1.5 you have now paid the difference in juice and are net down money going into the B-Bet.
I think he's just saying you might as well not place a bet when 2 systems conflict, and then start on the B-Bet. Last night is a great example... I would have missed out on the +1.5 win and missed out on the -1.5 loss, so I'd basically be at $0 gained, $0 loss, which is the same situation as everyone who bet. So today I'd be starting on the B-Bet and would wager $200 (-1.5); which is the same wager I would have made had I been betting both sides on the A-Bet. The result would be a win netting me 2 units ($200); and put me in the same situation as if I had bet on the A-Bet's that canceled eachother out. The only difference is I save the juice on the A-bet that occurs from betting both sides.
I think this guy is a smart better, his comment was just misunderstood.
To clarify: You would start on the B-Bet for whatever system lost the A and follow-it to the end. In this case Hot> would be following Wallco's; but if Wallco would have won the A, he'd be following JM MLB.
LAST NIGHT
(A) Mets (+1 1/2) -135 for 100: Win +$100
(A) Colorado (-1 1/2) + 120 for 100: Loss -$100
TODAY (assuming (B) bet wins)
(B) Colorado (-1 1/2) +132 for 200: Win +$264
Two day total: +$264
If bet your way:
LAST NIGHT
(A) Mets (+1 1/2) -135 SKIP
(A) Colorado (-1 1/2) + 120 SKIP
TODAY (assuming (B) bet wins)
(B) Colorado (-1 1/2) +132 for 200: Win +$264
Two day total: +$264
The amount is the same.
**************************************** **************************************** ***
Opposite Scenario
LAST NIGHT
(A) Mets (+1 1/2) -135 for 100: Lose -$135
(A) Colorado (-1 1/2) + 120 for 100: Win -$120
TODAY (assuming (B) bet wins)
(B) Mets (+1 1/2) -143 for 235: Win +235
Two day total: +$220
If bet your way:
LAST NIGHT
(A) Mets (+1 1/2) -135 SKIP
(A) Colorado (-1 1/2) + 120 SKIP
TODAY (assuming (B) bet wins)
(B) Mets (+1 1/2) -143 for 200: Win +$200
Two day total: +$200
This is less
Your way will never pay out more unless you raise your (B) bet higher than what your (A) bet totals would have been, the best it can do is pay the same. Any time the +money bet hits on the (A) you will be losing money, and some of these run lines are in the +170 to +180 range. The higher the +money bets are, the more you lose out on, or, it's that much more you would have to bet on (B) to achieve the same profit as doing it the right way. Not to mention, if that (B) bet continues to go on and lose the series, the loss will cost you more than had you played it the right way (Cost of loss and loss of profit that you would have recieved from (A) bet win). I see no situation where your way is better, unless you risk more money, but if you wish to trick yourself into believing it is, by all means do so. I will play it right, and will be further ahead by seasons end, unless every single (+1 1/2) runline bet hits on (A) in these situations, which I highly doubt. And even if they do, I will still have the exact amount of profit as you. IF THE SYSTEM SAYS PLAY IT, THEN PLAY IT. This argument is happening now, I can't wait to see what people are going to come up with when two MLB PLU$$$ plays go head to head, yes, this will happen, and yes, I will play it the same way.Comment -
I agree completely with the first scenario. I think it's the second where we differ, and that's okay (I love discussion and always welcome others perspective's).
The difference with the second scenario is you're saying the right way is to wager $336 to win $235:
TODAY (assuming (B) bet wins)
(B) Mets (+1 1/2) -143 for 235: Win +235
Two day total: +$220
Here's how Hot>'s betting strategy works (you bet the exact same as above on the B-bet):
LAST NIGHT
(A) Mets (+1 1/2) -135 SKIP
(A) Colorado (-1 1/2) + 120 SKIP
TODAY (assuming (B) bet wins)
(B) Mets (+1 1/2) -143 for 235: Win +$235
Two day total: +$235
So you make more by avoiding the 1st bet.
In this scenario you risk the same ($336) on the B-Bet. But you win more because you avoid the net loss of ($15) from the juice on the first day. The only difference in risk/reward amounts between the two strategies is skipping the day 1 bet; where you avoid the spread of -135 and +120 ($15 loss) by betting both sides.
Does that make sense?Last edited by Kitar; 05-10-11, 09:19 AM.Comment -
2 JM unofficial plays and both hit on A game. They seem more solid than his official plays!Comment -
[quote=lawalahmed;9938951]So far we only had Version two once because V2 and V1 don't share the same record....[/quote
I can see where this could get confusing. The reason I scored v1 and v2 together is because the plays will never be different. v2 is just a betting angle on a v1 play. Had the (B) bet lost by less than 3 runs it would have gone back to a v1 play for the (C) bet or continued on as a v2 bet if they had lost the (B) by 3 or more runs. I think scoring it separately could also be confusing. Most of us in this thread know what's going on so feedback on this would be welcome.
How would you bet it if it went to a v1 on the (C) bet. Would you try and recover all your losses or accept the additional amount as a loss and just play to win the original amount on the (A) bet and only half the amount lost on the (B) bet plus your profit. JM doesn't address any of this.Last edited by hagball52; 05-10-11, 10:21 AM.Comment -
I said you would win more if you bet more, this is obvious, but not for the amount of your (A) bet totals though (200), as you stated in your first post. And your example is only better here because you wagered more than your 200, and the (-money) line was higher than the +money line. Had the +money line in this scenario been +170, your "to win" amount for your (B) bet would have needed to be 270 instead of 235 in order to achieve the same profit as you would achieve betting it the right way, needless to say a loss would cost you even more. You are going about all this assuming you know what bets will win and when, and obviously assuming they will all win at some point. Unfortunately, that's not how it works. I could just as easy raise my (B) bet to a higher # also to achieve a higher profit, there is nothing profound with that statement. Plus this whole thing doesn't matter to me anyway, because I play the M/L on JM dogs anyhow.Last edited by Wallco99; 05-10-11, 10:38 AM.Comment -
[QUOTE=hagball52;9939226]Yes Version 2 come from Version 1 but then it can only come from Home series.... And also Version 2 can be chase twice or non chase at all, Version 2 is also optional for who want to play it and the lost of version 2 cannot be add to version 1 lost since it optional......
Therefore they are two seperate systems with different record.....Last edited by lawalahmed; 05-10-11, 10:58 AM.Comment -
I don't believe they are totally separate. If the v2 (B) bet lost and went back to a v1 on the(C) and it won. Would you score v2 0-1 and yet the series was a win? You know JM would not.
I can start scoring separately but it may cause confusion down the road. I'll re-do the post tomorrow morning and see what kind of feedback we get.Comment -
I wasn't really adding success to v2. Earlier when the season started it was discussed on this thread that technically v2 was not a play but a strategy. I can break it out and score it on it's own but down the road it may show some losses when the series actually won. It could get confusing but I don't have a problem with it. Basically what I'm trying to do is show Morrison's system in real light, not the way he shows it. We're all here for the same reason and I would like to be as informative and accurate as possible.Comment -
Current Bankroll: $5,078.00
JM Record: 4 - 0
Win/Loss Amount: +$78.00
Pending Series: [B]1 (Angels )
5. Angels ML (-128) [B] Bet $548.00 TO WIN $421.00
Best of luck tonight!Comment
