Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

[Dexter]

I am sticking with my same 3 Autobets from last year, but this time i will weight them properly (10x each play). Will stick to about 3 plays per day, but will not go more then 1-3 units on non system plays. These are home-grown systems, and I will rely on them to make or break my season.

A1_play any pitcher who has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > whip in his last 3. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. the pitcher with the 1.00 or less whip must have the better ranked bullpen era behind him. i will move some plays to the runline when i dont feel comfortable laying heavy odds.

2010 Record: 28-20 _58%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A2_play the over when both pitchers have a whip of 1.80 or > in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 1-5 in era.

2010 Record: 6-8_43%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A3_play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era.

2010 Record: 27-9_75%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

All of the above plays were documented in my 2010 thread here at SBR. Even though A2 wasn't successful in 2010, it can very easily be the biggest winner in 2011 if the games become high scoring again. Maybe some fences get moved in, the stitching on baseballs get tightened slightly, or some new undetectable performance enhancing drug gets used by sluggers. So I will play each of these for a dime a pop.

I will do a prediction of all teams total wins, playoffs, world series etc in the next month or so. I dont play over/unders for team total wins, but know that many people do. I also do not play any preseason baseball.

Good Luck to all this year....

[peterpan19]

GL dexter, cant wait for A3 this year, even A1 looked pretty solid, I remember it did better in the 2H ?

BOL

[Dexter]

GL dexter, cant wait for A3 this year, even A1 looked pretty solid, I remember it did better in the 2H ?

BOL

A1 was around 7 games under 500 at 1 point, then won around 12 in a row....

dont get too excited about A3.....i doubt it hits 75%.....A2 could be the one thats better this year. i will take 60%.

[Regul8er]

Best of Luck this year!

[mlb]

nice ... looking forward to the auto plays as well as all your plays .. good luck

[JMobile]

Good luck Dex!

[Pauulzcappin]

Good luck Dex, I'm gonna steal A3 a few times if the bullpens are well ranked.

Let's have a great baseball season.

[Dexter]

Good luck Dex, I'm gonna steal A3 a few times if the bullpens are well ranked.

Let's have a great baseball season.

NO.....i want 10 sbr pts each time!! kididng

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Dexter, with all due respect, the percentages you quote don't mean jack. I want to see the prices you are laying to get that result. At 60%, if you are laying more than -175, you are a loser. Show your last year numbers with the price. If not, your numbers are useless. I know you will agree.

[EXhoosier10]

Dexter, with all due respect, the percentages you quote don't mean jack. I want to see the prices you are laying to get that result. At 60%, if you are laying more than -175, you are a loser. Show your last year numbers with the price. If not, your numbers are useless. I know you will agree.

For most bettors, I would agree with this. But his A2/A3 systems are O/U and I'm sure no worse than -120 on average. That's only 54.54% to break even.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

For most bettors, I would agree with this. But his A2/A3 systems are O/U and I'm sure no worse than -120 on average. That's only 54.54% to break even.

He presents three scenarios that involve him laying money, with one of the scenarios not breaking 50%. All three scenarios record's are the total of all the parts. All I am asking to see is the price associated with record. Dex is not a novice, he knows, along with everybody else, it is the price that matters. I can show you W/L records less than fifty percent, that show positive units.

[Dexter]

Dexter, with all due respect, the percentages you quote don't mean jack. I want to see the prices you are laying to get that result. At 60%, if you are laying more than -175, you are a loser. Show your last year numbers with the price. If not, your numbers are useless. I know you will agree.

for A1, i never layed more then 150 (i took it to the run line when it was higher).....i will go back and get the net units for these plays (just for you)

He presents three scenarios that involve him laying money, with one of the scenarios not breaking 50%. All three scenarios record's are the total of all the parts. All I am asking to see is the price associated with record. Dex is not a novice, he knows, along with everybody else, it is the price that matters. I can show you W/L records less than fifty percent, that show positive units.

i always lay 110 with all of my totals (A2 and A3)....

you were a member here last year - you dont recall these system plays? the thread can be pulled up...

[Dexter]

Here are the prices for A1 - all based on 1 unit:
+100
-100
-130 (RL - ML would have won the play)
-140
-130
-120
+100
-120
-150
-100
-120 (RL - ML would have won the play)
-100
+100
-100
-100
+100
-110
+100
+100
+100
-120
-120 (RL - ML would have won the play)
+160
+100
+100
+100
+100
+100
+100
+100
+100
+100
+120
+100
-110
+100
-100
-110
+100
+100
+120
+100
+120
+100
+100
+100
-100
+100

+8.4 units on A1

[Pauulzcappin]

baseball season hasn't even started and I'm already reading some funny stuff...



Dex stop laying -200, hitting 50% and saying you are at + units

[Dexter]

baseball season hasn't even started and I'm already reading some funny stuff...



Dex stop laying -200, hitting 50% and saying you are at + units

he made a valid point...i should have showed the net units for A1......i knew i was up for that system but the new members here wouldnt have known...

[Pauulzcappin]

I know.

I'm making a joke because I remember that you never laid more than -160... No offense to pair of 5's of course.

[Dexter]

I know.

I'm making a joke because I remember that you never laid more than -160... No offense to pair of 5's of course.

i have to do some more research and decide how im going to play these A1's....as you can see above, 3 times that i took the runline, my play won by 1.....have to break down these plays and see whats the best way to go....

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I appreciate Dex going to the trouble to figure out the prices. As I said to Dex in a PM, he is no donk and knows better than representing wins/losses. The price is the key. Hey, everyone is rusty after laying and playing the -110 game. To Dex,

[Dexter]

i just compared the following for A1 at 1 unit a play:

Moneyline on each game +6 units

Taking the Runline when the Moneyline is >160....+6.5 units

no major difference last year.....

[TheJewBear]

interesting stuff Dex...I'll be keeping an eye out!

[mebaran]

I like your approach to the o/u bets. I just wish WHIP and NPERA weren't as wide known as they are now...that would be nifty, huh?

[DuncHen22]

Great to see you back, Dex! Can't wait!

[Dexter]

going over all the rosters.....redsox are friggin loaded. their pitching is insane...beckett will bounceback somewhat. his velocity is still 92-95

[DDT]

Thanks Dex, I look forward to your plays

[Dexter]

going through all teams as i prep for my fantasy baseball draft friday. the brewers should be legit this year. their top 3 (greinke, gallardo and marcum) is no joke. marcum is finally out of the AL East...

[Dexter]

Umpire trends for over/unders are a great data set to look at since some of these umps tend to have a wide/tight strike zones. Early in the season i will be looking at 2010 data to come up with some smaller plays. Then i will look at 2011 data once umps have gotten 5 games behind the plate:

2010 Top 5 Over Umps with 20 games minimum:

1) A. Campos (17-7)_71%
2) T. Tichenor (18-9)_67%
3) J. Reynolds (18-10)_64%
4) F. Culbreth (21-12)_64%
5) M. Reilly (19-11)_63%

2010 Top 5 Under Umps with 20 games minimum:

1) G. Gibson (7-25)_78%
2) J. Hoye (8-24)_75%
3) J. Wolf (10-22)_69%
4) D. Eddings (10-20)_67%
5) J. Layne (11-20)_65%

[Dexter]

2009 Data Over/Under:

Campos: 11-15
Tichenor: 12-23
Reynolds: 18-11
Culbreth: 15-19
Reilly: 19-13

Gibson: 15-11
Hoye: 13-25
Wolf: 18-14
Eddings: 17-17
Layne: 12-19

[Dexter]

I am sticking with my same 3 Autobets from last year, but this time i will weight them properly (10x each play). Will stick to about 3 plays per day, but will not go more then 1-3 units on non system plays. These are home-grown systems, and I will rely on them to make or break my season.

A1_play any pitcher who has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > whip in his last 3. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. the pitcher with the 1.00 or less whip must have the better ranked bullpen era behind him. i will move some plays to the runline when i dont feel comfortable laying heavy odds.

2010 Record: 28-20 _58%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A2_play the over when both pitchers have a whip of 1.80 or > in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 1-5 in era.

2010 Record: 6-8_43%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A3_play the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era.

2010 Record: 27-9_75%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

All of the above plays were documented in my 2010 thread here at SBR. Even though A2 wasn't successful in 2010, it can very easily be the biggest winner in 2011 if the games become high scoring again. Maybe some fences get moved in, the stitching on baseballs get tightened slightly, or some new undetectable performance enhancing drug gets used by sluggers. So I will play each of these for a dime a pop.

I will do a prediction of all teams total wins, playoffs, world series etc in the next month or so. I dont play over/unders for team total wins, but know that many people do. I also do not play any preseason baseball.

Good Luck to all this year....

A4 Autobet: Play the over when Jim Reynolds or Mike Reilly are the home plate ump. Play the under when James Hoye or Jerry Layne are the ump. 5 units per play.

*as you can see from my above research, these 4 umps have been 60% or > for the last 2 seasons. thats enough to suggest they have wide/small strike zones.

[sweetjones55]

Hoye looks like the money maker.

[lyon804]

Looking forward to following your thread Dexter. Hopefully A3 is strong again.


Wondering if betting Under in Philly games will be strong considering there pitching staff and overrated hitting that will decline again this season imo.

[Anthonyg7]

Good luck Dex, this will be my first MLB season.. Looking forward to following your thread.

[Dexter]

Looking forward to following your thread Dexter. Hopefully A3 is strong again.


Wondering if betting Under in Philly games will be strong considering there pitching staff and overrated hitting that will decline again this season imo.

great hitters park should offset that....i dont like that angle. totals will be 7/7.5 when those 4 take the bump anyway.

[Dexter]

AL East:

1) Redsox - 97
2) Yankees - 93*
3) Rays - 84
4) Bluejays - 77
5) Orioles - 67

AL Central:

1) Twins - 92
2) Tigers - 87
3) Whitesox - 84
4) Royals - 68
5) Indians - 65

AL West:

1) Angels - 94
2) A's - 84
3) Rangers - 81
4) Mariners - 75

[Dexter]

NL East:

1) Phillies - 98
2) Braves - 88
3) Marlins - 83
4) Nationals - 68
5) Mets - 67

NL Central:

1) Brewers - 93
2) Reds - 92*
3) Cards - 85
4) Cubs - 74
5) Astros - 73
6) Pirates - 60

NL West:

1) Giants - 95
2) Rockies - 92
3) Dodgers - 87
4) Padres - 80
5) D'Backs - 63

[Dexter]

2011 World Series:

Redsox over Phillies

Hate to go chalk, but i see no other final 2 barring major injuries.