Is there profit potential with this bet?

[stingyrivers]

I am strongly considering one bet for the course of the season, and would really like feedback on this question....

the common prop bet of run scored in the 1st inning v. no run 1st

i have been winning with this bet by betting no run 1st.... just hit again with the royals/tigers 1st inning today....

here is the thing about this bet, intuitively i would say that scoreless first innings happen more often than not, yet the juice on this bet is usually weighted on the side of betting runs will be scored in the first.... example today:

Tigers/Royals will there be runs scored in the first inning?

Yes -125

No -105

I have been winning with this wager by betting no run 1st in select games..... i am guessing that the juice is weighted towards the yes side because people generally like to bet on offense and scores to happen more so than betting no scores will happen in sports, but i am guessing on that, historically maybe runs in the first occur more often than scoreless firsts, but that just doesn't seem like it could be true....

so in all that rambling, i guess my question to the intelligent cappers here is, does this wager have a real profit potential??
consider that i strongly feel this bet is so strange that the lines are probably pretty soft on it with several overlays in the course of a season....

I really would love feedback on this, and thanks ahead of time....

I am a ML Parlay system type of guy, but am quickly learning that is not a good approach in MLB as -200 favs lose daily, thus i am considering making my system in baseball for the whole season first inning bets, by chosing select games where scoreless firsts are extremely likely by using a screening process that includes such factors as pitching matchups, teams with high percentage of scoreless firsts playing each other, weather and climate, as well as all other contributing factors to scoring early in a ballgame....

based on the feedback from the forum, and how this starts to pan out in the ballparks, this will become my daily thread for the season as opposed to a ML Parlay thread, and likely will be my system for the entire system....

hoping for lots of thoughtful feedback on this one guys, thanks in advance and i hope you all cash on today's tickets

[OLGC_Slayer]

I think the juice there was because of the Tigs lineup. Its pretty fierce on paper.
Did you take the bet?

[stingyrivers]

yeah i cashed, took scoreless first

[stingyrivers]

i think i am going to be on a lot of scoreless firsts in early april in colder parks like detroit, cleveland, chicagos, new yorks etc.... just seems like scoreless first is more likely

[OLGC_Slayer]

Probably not a bad bet. You should double check baseball-reference.com to check on a pitcher past performance because some pitchers are prone to trouble in the first inning.
Off the top of my head Josh Towers comes to mind.
Otherwise looks pretty solid bro.
Good job.

[Crayzee]

i think as long as the money is in your favor make the play

[stingyrivers]

yeah i just took scoreless first in the brewers/cubs game at +110


i even hedged it with this bet:

Cubs leading after first....


so that way i just need the brewers not to score in top of first and i profit

what do ya think?

[stingyrivers]

whoops....

maybe i got some work to do with this system

[stingyrivers]

ok.... hit again with sox/A's.... definitely onto something here

[CashMoney]

You may very well be onto something. I think you just have to be careful on the pitchers throwing the 1st inning like OLGC Slayer said.

Example, I think it would be a safe play to bet the Blue Jays score against Mussina tonight in the 1st. He normally has trouble in the 1st inning of his games. I'm going to start following this and do some research.

[stingyrivers]

thanks...

yeah i will be doing the same and report findings here...

i think you could hve a very high success rate with this strategy if we come up with a screening process that makes the plays very select games.....

obviously playing them across the board blind, wont have an advantage, so if we come up with criteria that makes it a play, i see good things for this

[CashMoney]

Here's some info on Mike Mussina.

502 1st Innings and given up 212 runs in the 1st inning for a 42% chance he'll give up a run in the 1st inning. On the flip side there's a 58% chance that he won't give up a run in the
1st inning. Considering he's normally shaky in the 1st inning I'm sure the percentages will be better for other pitchers and dependent on the team he's facing.

There is definately a formula here.

[CashMoney]

Probably not a bad bet. You should double check baseball-reference.com to check on a pitcher past performance because some pitchers are prone to trouble in the first inning.
Off the top of my head Josh Towers comes to mind.
Otherwise looks pretty solid bro.
Good job.

Josh Towers
113 1st Innings Pitched
69 Runs Given up
61% Chance he'll give up a run in the 1st Inning.

I would say a game where Mussina is facing Towers would be a good bet that a run will score in the 1st inning. 2 Bad Towers isn't throwing tonight.

[CashMoney]

What book allows this sort of bet???

[accuscoresucks]

i dabbled with this the last 2 years this is actually a great bet,think about it 2 starting pitchers with both of them eras under 3.00 era whatever [your preferance] are more often than not going to give up a score.twards the 60% of season mark i stop

[kcfd2000]

i love this bet and do quite well on it. good luck

[LT Profits]

What book allows this sort of bet???

It's a pretty basic prop, so any book that offers baseball props should offer it. 5 Dimes and Greek come to mind, although Greek juice rapes you.

[YoungMoney23]

Stingy,

I checked this out and placed a prop bet on NO runs in the first inning of Phils/Nats for my first baseball wager of the year. Won 2 units, seemed like pretty easy money if theres two solid pitchers on the mound. Thanks for the notice bro

[twtb19]

I am thinking the numbers are that way based on pitchers coming out not quite ready...not warming up enough. They are also facing the best part of the lineup. That combined with people wanting to bet on offense is probably how you get the good line. Hopefully you are on to something, GL...these are my guesses as to why the odds are good.

[imgv94]

im always tempted to make the bet myself.

[EaglesPhan36]

Interesting stuff fellas. Thanks for the read. Just for reference ...

Today: 9 of 15 games went scoreless.
Yesterday: 5 of 8
Monday: 3 of 12

So you'd be at a little bit of a loss if you had bet every one of those games or close to even.

[BigOrangeTitans]

it does well in the later games strangely

i bet on these all the time.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Also, opening day is the only regular season day that took a loss, but think about it. 1st game of the year these guys were prolly pretty amped to hit...

[imgv94]

I'd think these would be good in Giants and Padres games..

[accuscoresucks]

yep put 4 in last minute
cld/stl-sf/lad-wsh/phi-cws/cle
those were the best bets 4-0

absolutely wouldnt do it thursday STAY AWAY

[accuscoresucks]

oops i just checked my acct i bet with thes on billingsly didnt start the anh/lad was a push

[stingyrivers]

yep....

nice work guys.... especially good call on Mussina...

i went 5 -2 with these bets yesterday for an almost 3 unit profit....

i will definitely be working out a screening process this weekend and post it back here as well as my plays....

gonna do what some would think is nuts and start the day off with

Whitesox/Indians Scoreless 1st

at +120

money is just too much in our favor here, and they went scoreless in the first yesterday, plus playing in a cold park very early in the day....


i am gonna make my wagers on the day as each one hits or loses, so the first is

Chicago/Cleveland no run 1st


thinking about kc/detroit as well at -120 for the early games....

again great job with the start of this thread all, it already is rich with really thoughtful contribution.... i think if we work together on this we could have a winning approach with this bet soon

[chinodeft26]

stingy, solid job with this. keep this thread going throughout the year because i'll definitely be keeping an eye on it. went 1-0 with bos/oak yesterday.

gl today

[EaglesPhan36]

Looked at that ChiSox/Tribe one ... probably staying away from that. Danks vs. CLE last year, a run was scored in the 1st in 2 of 4 starts. Westbrook vs. CHI, a run was scored in 3 of 4 starts.

[stingyrivers]

thanks chino.... this will definitely be my year long thread, and likely my main baseball plays as crazy as that is....

ouch eaglesphan, i just locked in before i saw your post, i still feel there are some factors that make a scoreless first in cleveland, great research though, i shoulda been onto that....

i locked in my first plays:

Scoreless firsts

1 * Chicago/Cleveland at +100 (line dropped)

1 * Arizona/Cinncinatti at +105


i will be making a 1 pm play depending on how these two fare

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm going with the Zona/Cincy one ... shoot the Cle/Chi one just for plus odds is probably still worth a shot.

[chinodeft26]

also on ari/cin. cueto's the real deal

[jstblaze]

does any one have any stats ont his for last season?

totals for the season?

day games verse night games?

favorite as hoem team vs. favorite as away?

i am trying to look into it, i just know some of you guys have some serious stats sheets from last season already set up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice win Stingy on Cle/Chi.

[stingyrivers]

well... so far so good.... damn that had to be the quickest first in a while, i just turned on the indians/sox game and it is already 0-0 in top of second....

a scoreless first in zona/cincy and already be up 2 plus units by 1 pm....

still shocked it is already the second inning in game 1