Baseball Trends

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  • WestsidePete
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-19-07
    • 8049

    #1
    Baseball Trends
    I'm going to start a trend thread and put stuff in here you guys may deem as useful...

    First thing I looked at is the Red Sox at home....very good home team...so when they lose the first game of a home series they bounce back strong in the second game...the following goes back 5 years...if you bet the second game of a home series after they lose the first one this has hit 72% of the time.

    2007 9-1
    2006 2-5
    2005 6-2
    2004 8-1
    2003 6-3

    31-12 going back 5 years
  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #2
    Pete, you need to add the odds to see the P&L
    Comment
    • Rufus
      SBR High Roller
      • 03-28-08
      • 107

      #3
      Originally posted by WestsidePete
      I'm going to start a trend thread and put stuff in here you guys may deem as useful...

      First thing I looked at is the Red Sox at home....very good home team...so when they lose the first game of a home series they bounce back strong in the second game...the following goes back 5 years...if you bet the second game of a home series after they lose the first one this has hit 72% of the time.

      2007 9-1
      2006 2-5
      2005 6-2
      2004 8-1
      2003 6-3

      31-12 going back 5 years
      sample size is insignificant; trends in baseball mean absolutely nothing
      Comment
      • WestsidePete
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-19-07
        • 8049

        #4
        Originally posted by modelman
        sample size is insignificant; trends in baseball mean absolutely nothing

        Then I guess this thread isn't for you then...
        Comment
        • junkman773
          Restricted User
          • 02-04-08
          • 1316

          #5
          Thanks
          Comment
          • Rufus
            SBR High Roller
            • 03-28-08
            • 107

            #6
            Originally posted by WestsidePete
            Then I guess this thread isn't for you then...
            you make a good point.
            Comment
            • WestsidePete
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-19-07
              • 8049

              #7
              Originally posted by modelman
              you make a good point.
              you've never found trends helpful?? Not saying to play trends only just looking for angles or find something worth playing
              Comment
              • Rufus
                SBR High Roller
                • 03-28-08
                • 107

                #8
                I haven't actually done that much betting yet. I'm finishing up my senior year in college right now and my senior essay is looking at inefficiencies in the betting market (and I'm actually moving out to Las Vegas in a few months to do quant work for a sports consulting firm that makes the lines). I haven't found streaks to have any predictive value (controlling for baseline performance level) no matter how I dissected them.
                Comment
                • WestsidePete
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 07-19-07
                  • 8049

                  #9
                  Originally posted by modelman
                  I haven't actually done that much betting yet. I'm finishing up my senior year in college right now and my senior essay is looking at inefficiencies in the betting market (and I'm actually moving out to Las Vegas in a few months to do quant work for a sports consulting firm that makes the lines). I haven't found streaks to have any predictive value (controlling for baseline performance level) no matter how I dissected them.

                  Thanks for the input...GL on the Vegas move....
                  Comment
                  • Rufus
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 03-28-08
                    • 107

                    #10
                    Originally posted by WestsidePete
                    Thanks for the input...GL on the Vegas move....
                    Thanks. I'm a little curious how you look at trends--are you looking at more of a team getting hot type thing or situational factors (i.e. first game of a homestand, coming off a loss)
                    Comment
                    • WestsidePete
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-19-07
                      • 8049

                      #11
                      situational factors...I've never bet blindly on trends before but am interested in finding a few that may be worth looking at...also really want to look at the Yankees...they win 90 plus games yet if you bet the ml on them every game you end up down overall...I'm going to study how their 4th and 5th starters perform over a period of a few years to see how the teams records hold up...I would think as good as they are...those 2 starters and the team would't be winning as much as the 1-3 starters....yet they get heavy chalk especially in home games...
                      Comment
                      • WestsidePete
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-19-07
                        • 8049

                        #12
                        teams getting hot during the year will be in year trends I'll look at...last 10 games and see who's hot at the plate,starting pitchers and bullpens broken down seperately over a ten game stretch...with each starter going around twice...
                        Comment
                        • St. Andrew
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-23-08
                          • 2265

                          #13
                          Originally posted by modelman
                          I haven't actually done that much betting yet. I'm finishing up my senior year in college right now and my senior essay is looking at inefficiencies in the betting market (and I'm actually moving out to Las Vegas in a few months to do quant work for a sports consulting firm that makes the lines). I haven't found streaks to have any predictive value (controlling for baseline performance level) no matter how I dissected them.
                          I disagree with this. You need to watch games instead of your calculator. Ever seen the body language in an MLB team that has lost 4-6 games in a row? They feel defeated, then they play defeated. The bullpen collaspes, hitters hit slumps, the team loses focus. It happened to the Rockies last year in mid-summer. Then when they got hot, they felt hot, then they played hot. Streaks affect game performance.
                          Comment
                          • Rufus
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 03-28-08
                            • 107

                            #14
                            Originally posted by St. Andrew
                            I disagree with this. You need to watch games instead of your calculator. Ever seen the body language in an MLB team that has lost 4-6 games in a row? They feel defeated, then they play defeated. The bullpen collaspes, hitters hit slumps, the team loses focus. It happened to the Rockies last year in mid-summer. Then when they got hot, they felt hot, then they played hot. Streaks affect game performance.
                            I'm not claiming that streaks don't effect game performance (although they very rarely do)--I'm claiming that they are priced efficiently. When we're talking about individual players though, that's another story--there are mispricings there, most of which come from the line overvaluing recent performance.

                            Also realize that baseball is essentially an individual sports. There are no real synergistic teamwork effects. As the adage goes, a winning streak is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by modelman
                              As the adage goes, a winning streak is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher
                              ...and your bullpen.

                              Getting back to trends, they are fine if you use them to support a play, but I would not make them the basis of a play.

                              And one more thing, although I admit I have not run the numbers yet, but I bet it would have been profitable to bet AGAINST the Yankees every time they were favored last season. In fact, let me look at it now.
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                OK, the results are surprising, If, in the 2007 regular season, you would have bet:

                                ON the Yankees every game: 94-68, -10.62 units
                                AGAINST Yankees every game: 68-94, +3.27 units
                                AGAINST Yankees at +100 or more: 54-85, -0.08 units
                                AGAINST Yankees at -110 or more: 10-5, +3.48 units
                                AGAINST Yankees from -101 to -109: 4-4, -0.13 units

                                The numbers are very insignificant, as betting against the Yankees would have picked up just 3.27 units over 162 games. What surprised me was that the best time to fade the Yankees was when they were underdogs (+3.48), although that was a small sampling of 15 games.
                                Comment
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