Tuesday leans

Gtawatson · 08-31-10, 12:04 AM

solid picks, good luck. i think i may have to risk it all on the yankees and phil franchise at home vs. vin mizarro

pittmatt80 · 08-31-10, 12:05 AM

Yeah I like most of these plays for value. Probably going to roll with some of these. Good Luck

hawley · 08-31-10, 12:05 AM

might make a play on the brewers now based on the early line movement and try to beat the closing line but gallardo did get lit up his last time on the mound

same thing with arizona, plus the dbags bats are hot, plus correia got lit up against arizona in his last start while kennedy pitched nicely

hawley · 08-31-10, 12:06 AM

i also imagine there will be a heap of chasing going on with the padres tomorrow

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:18 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

MIL -101 (check out the early line movement) Gallardo got shelled last time up against Cincy, not sure about this. Since off the dl he only pitched well against Pirates and cubs

ARI -115 (ditto)

HOU +140 (I know StL is "due" and Carp's pitching, but I can't pass up this value with home Wandy against the comatose Cards Won't ever lay this kind of chalk on cards on the road, especially against shitty teams

TOR +135 (testing out road Ricky -- small) ricky has been good fade material lately

KC +187 (Lee's struggling mightily, and O'Sullivan actually looked halfway decent @DET) don't think i'll touch this game, lee will probably get back on track, he'll be fine

CLE +120 (Edwin Jackson is not this good) he might not be that good, but he's pitching VERY WELL. Masterson has good #s against Chisox but I think I'm going with the best team here.

BAL +126 (ice-cold Beckett vs. red-hot Matusz) I think the red sox are done, but 126 seems like a good price for a .500 showalter team, especially at home

Hope my insight somehow helped

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:18 AM

Meh, the post looked liked shit, but I guess you can understand

TodaysAction · 08-31-10, 12:30 AM

Just a quick comment about the Tribe's game for today (EST), EJ is better than you're giving him credit for. I'm not saying CWS are the play or CLE is but feel I have a good read on the visiting team's tosser. My two-cents on the matter.

with the action you take.

No coincidences · 08-31-10, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Hope my insight somehow helped

Did you catch the CIN/MIL line movement? Went from -117 to -107 out of the gate.

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:32 AM

I totally agree, Edwin has been lights out for a while now.

CBASS · 08-31-10, 12:33 AM

No coin,

I like the picks. Should be profitable.
What do you guys think about Giants tomorrow?
I don't have much faith in Esmil Rogers against a desperate Giants team at home.
Any feedback would be great, thanks.

No coincidences · 08-31-10, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

Just a quick comment about the Tribe's game for today (EST), EJ is better than you're giving him credit for. I'm not saying CWS are the play or CLE is but feel I have a good read on the visiting team's tosser. My two-cents on the matter.

with the action you take.

It's hard to cap this game, given how bad both bullpens are and how used up they will be after tonight.

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:35 AM

Looking at it now Coins. A 11 cent line move is pretty sick when there's 75% of the people on Cincy. I think it's a more fade Harang than back Gallardo angle.

No coincidences · 08-31-10, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Looking at it now Coins. A 11 cent line move is pretty sick when there's 75% of the people on Cincy. I think it's a more fade Harang than back Gallardo angle.

Yep.

This team feasted on Harang last year.

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:37 AM

By the way, Minnesota looks like a

tomorrow.

jackpot269 · 08-31-10, 12:38 AM

GL- Im just know getting a chance to look at Tues games but will look at these !!!!!!

No coincidences · 08-31-10, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

By the way, Minnesota looks like a

tomorrow.

Trying to figure out why it went from -172 to -168 initially, though.

TodaysAction · 08-31-10, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

I totally agree, Edwin has been lights out for a while now.

You give this guy a couple or three runs and not have 8-12 pitch half innings and he'll "man up". A concern I have for the game is because both teams had so many hits is, did they use them all up? You know what I mean when I say that - take a look at teams after getting 18+ hits in a game and when they play the same team the next game/day you'll be amazed at the findings. Same holds true when a team gets blanked 2+ times in a row. Small tidbits like that can make or break one's wagers.

No coincidences · 08-31-10, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

You give this guy a couple or three runs and not have 8-12 pitch half innings and he'll "man up". A concern I have for the game is because both teams had so many hits is, did they use them all up? You know what I mean when I say that - take a look at teams after getting 18+ hits in a game and when they play the same team the next game/day you'll be amazed at the findings. Same holds true when a team gets blanked 2+ times in a row. Small tidbits like that can make or break one's wagers.

Total already dropped from 9 to 8.5.

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Trying to figure out why it went from -172 to -168 initially, though.

sharp money moved it back and forth, take a look at how fast it swung back even with the action slightly spread.

Originally posted by TodaysAction

You give this guy a couple or three runs and not have 8-12 pitch half innings and he'll "man up". A concern I have for the game is because both teams had so many hits is, did they use them all up? You know what I mean when I say that - take a look at teams after getting 18+ hits in a game and when they play the same team the next game/day you'll be amazed at the findings. Same holds true when a team gets blanked 2+ times in a row. Small tidbits like that can make or break one's wagers.

His biggest improvement since coming back to America League has been the way he's been locating pitches. Hitting corners with 94-98 mph fastballs and good off-speed pitches have made him deadly. I'm pretty sure he'll do well against Cleveland tomorrow.

Looking at some other factors then probably placing my wager on the White Sox

lakerboy · 08-31-10, 12:43 AM

Good luck with the leans/plays. Just make sure you look at the +1.5 RL's.

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good luck with the leans/plays. Just make sure you look at the +1.5 RL's.

We have to backtest this a bit more LB. are you keeping track? Oakland's RL was at -185 today

No coincidences · 08-31-10, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good luck with the leans/plays. Just make sure you look at the +1.5 RL's.

I'll start fully researching all of the games now -- these are just first-glance leans.

TodaysAction · 08-31-10, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Total already dropped from 9 to 8.5.

They're not stupid and to drop it that quick tells me it was hit pretty hard and they are trying to get a proportional balance before the lifting takes place. Again, have nothing on this game (yet) and think it's worth waiting for the dust to settle (better).

lakerboy · 08-31-10, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

We have to backtest this a bit more LB. are you keeping track? Oakland's RL was at -185 today

Im not keeping track but it was 1-1 today with the rocks winning. A's were a setup. You gotta look at it from both sides.

Tomorrow we have these

Zona +1.5 -182( im not buying it)
Angels +1.5 -194

2 other things to look at

brewers are favored on the rl and so are the phils while both teams are dogs on the ml.

only use pinny for these things.

lakerboy · 08-31-10, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Total already dropped from 9 to 8.5.

I see 9 only at bookmaker and betjam. Pinny opened with 8.5. another fukkup by bookmaker.

hawley · 08-31-10, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Im not keeping track but it was 1-1 today with the rocks winning. A's were a setup. You gotta look at it from both sides.

Tomorrow we have these

Zona +1.5 -182( im not buying it)
Angels +1.5 -194

2 other things to look at

brewers are favored on the rl and so are the phils while both teams are dogs on the ml.

only use pinny for these things.

hey LB i just noticed the brewers point you made, can you explain to me what this means?

TodaysAction · 08-31-10, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

His biggest improvement since coming back to America League has been the way he's been locating pitches. Hitting corners with 94-98 mph fastballs and good off-speed pitches have made him deadly. I'm pretty sure he'll do well against Cleveland tomorrow.

Looking at some other factors then probably placing my wager on the White Sox

This goes back to the feeling of not having to be perfect to give his team a chance to win.

Before you dive into the pool, take a look at who's behind the plate to see if it's tall/tight/wide. I need to run the numbers for the game and think there are a couple options worth looking into.

TodaysAction · 08-31-10, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I see 9 only at bookmaker and betjam. Pinny opened with 8.5. another fukkup by bookmaker.

Similar to basketball, in my opinion, the whole number is better for the punter.

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

This goes back to the feeling of not having to be perfect to give his team a chance to win.

Before you dive into the pool, take a look at who's behind the plate to see if it's tall/tight/wide. I need to run the numbers for the game and think there are a couple options worth looking into.

Looks like an average umpire. Only thing that slightly stands out is 60% of wins to the road team.

miyakuza · 08-31-10, 01:03 AM

Tread lightly with White Sox tomorrow. Their bullpen has been almost giving away games. With Cleveland losing yet another game today, they might come back steal this one if they can fight it out until the end of the game.

lakerboy · 08-31-10, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by hawley

hey LB i just noticed the brewers point you made, can you explain to me what this means?

what im trying to point out is that the brewcrew are favored on the RL as opposed to the ml. only pinny and matchy have the brewers favored on the rl while all the others are holding the reds as the rl fave. to me this makes it clear that the brewers are the play. also the other books have the reds as rl faves cause they dont want to be hammered on the brewcrew RL overnight . tomorrow most books will switch to brewers as RL faves . thats the adv of having pinny. you can take the brewers rl right now instead of waiting until tomorrow and then the price will be crappy.

hawley · 08-31-10, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

what im trying to point out is that the brewcrew are favored on the RL as opposed to the ml. only pinny and matchy have the brewers favored on the rl while all the others are holding the reds as the rl fave. to me this makes it clear that the brewers are the play. also the other books have the reds as rl faves cause they dont want to be hammered on the brewcrew RL overnight . tomorrow most books will switch to brewers as RL faves . thats the adv of having pinny. you can take the brewers rl right now instead of waiting until tomorrow and then the price will be crappy.

thanks for your time again in explaining this

TodaysAction · 08-31-10, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Looks like an average umpire. Only thing that slightly stands out is 60% of wins to the road team.

Try to go a little deeper Pauulzcappin. Look for his 'normal' zone - this is prudent for total punters., however; you found the one key element I was referencing.

Pauulzcappin · 08-31-10, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

Try to go a little deeper Pauulzcappin. Look for his 'normal' zone - this is prudent for total punters., however; you found the one key element I was referencing.

May I PM you, TA?