Need good advice from you guys

MadCapper · 08-26-10, 01:40 PM

have you ever beat baseball? Do you trust others enough to follow? Why do you think you will beat them for football or bball?

Rixsaw · 08-26-10, 01:48 PM

The season is winding down. So unless you know what you are doing, you should skip. Good luck with whatever you decide.

Power Play · 08-26-10, 01:48 PM

Just a few advice:
1. Since you're new bet for fun not for profit. Bet the minimum until you gain more experience in order to minimize loses. Never chase your loses. Less than 5 Percent bankroll per pick.
2. Generally avoid public teams like Yankees, Phillies etc
3. Try to look at Underdogs before Favorites.
4. Beware the road chalk in baseball.
5. In baseball try to isolate pickem games and take the underdog.
6. There are situations to play -200 in baseball. Those are few and far between however so if you see them ignore the game or look at the underdog.
7. VERY IMPORTANT: There may be a couple of professional cappers that wins but overall DO NOT PAY FOR PICKS.

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 01:48 PM

beacause i think im knowledgeable enough at basketball itself..
yes i have beaten baseball if you will call it that way, bankroll has been up and down until it went down to 0..
yeah i trust some respected cappers here like paco, lakerboy, vegas gold, therber2 and todaysaction (no disrespect for other great cappers out there)
btw, no disrespect to those cappers i mentioned as well, i have been grateful for the winners i tailed and i lost due to chasing my loss..

what i did was tail some of their plays, yes i look at all of their plays..
if i like it sometimes i add more units compared to what they bet, if i dont like it i bet less or take a pass..
and i pick like 2-4 plays on my own and play it according to my will..

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by Power Play

Just a few advice:
1. Since you're new bet for fun not for profit. Bet the minimum until you gain more experience in order to minimize loses. Never chase your loses. Less than 5 Percent bankroll per pick.

2. Generally avoid public teams like Yankees, Phillies etc

3. Try to look at Underdogs before Favorites.

4. Beware the road chalk in baseball.

5. In baseball try to isolate pickem games and take the underdog.

thank you sir..i appreciate it..
those with

i learned from yesterday and my previous loss..
the

i dont quite understand..what is pickem games for you??

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 01:58 PM

btw..i still got like $3 dollar something and decided to play with it..
i parlayed phillies astros under 8 1/2 and brewers..my own play i can say..
i just noticed that the board was on the over and some are on the dodgers..so it may lose..
but if the play went thru it will be like $10 and ill try to build on that to get back to 100 somehow..

Power Play · 08-26-10, 02:09 PM

Pickem games are games where you think both teams have equal chance to win. In those games if you consistently take the underdog (and are right about the game being a toss up) you'll win long term. The Pirates at home are often undervalued as dogs even though they're hovering at .500 last two seasons. When a team like the Cardinals come in with a LOSING road record and draw heavy chalk, they might be worth a shot. Tonight the Cards are at Nationals for example (Nationals played well at home this year overall). Cards have Carpenter but they're in bad form and have a losing record on the road. The game is closer to being a toss up than the line (-190) shows. Not suggesting for you to take the Nats (I made a small play however) but definitely don't take the Cards in that spot. Other team often undervalued at home often this year are: Rockies, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Orioles lately, Padres early on, Royals, and A's. Notice they're all generally teams the betting public have no respect for. Gambling is tough to win long term ( My overall career is still in the red from losing too much starting out.) so don't expect to win consistently until you get some experience.

Power Play · 08-26-10, 02:14 PM

Every year teams with "nothing to play for" also get that infectious winning mentality for a spell. The Orioles right now. I remember the A's were hot late last season when they're pounding "superior" teams. The key is to isolate those teams early and ride them until they come back to earth. When public teams get hot you start getting -250 lines which drains all value so look at streaking small market teams.

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 02:21 PM

pwerplay its nice to talk to you man..
i feel like i want to add funds now and start my assignment..
i feel like i should have a paper where i list the teams and how are they doing so in that case i will keep track of how they are doing as of late and not being blinded by their big name and star studed lineup
i also think its nice to check the pitcher deeply and not just to look at their names and era..
for example a bad pitcher may have an ugly ERA but pitching well against a certain team

bonduforlife · 08-26-10, 02:25 PM

iwou

bonduforlife · 08-26-10, 02:28 PM

I would recommend you wait for football since there a re less upsets so easier picks

P.S I am betting on the Padres, Blur Jays and the Patriots point spread.
Im also on a 4 ticket win streak so if u wanna take a shot, bet small on this and get some cash in your pockets

CHAZ · 08-26-10, 02:28 PM

Start off with small bets and be consistent with it. Don't go all in on a few bets, its gambling no one play is guaranteed. I started off with a very small amount and went from there. As you get better and become more confident then casually increase the bets. Everyone has there own system or own mentality when it comes to it, you just gotta find your own.

Power Play · 08-26-10, 02:29 PM

Current forms matter a lot in baseball. Phillies seasonal stats look good offensively but now they cannot be depended on currently. Pitcher's form are also important. Orioles starters for example have been awesome lately regardless of their terrible ERAs. For moneyline it's useful to convert the ML to the winning percentage to help visualize bad and good lines. For example the -340 Phillies ML yesterday equates to a winning percentage of over 77 percent. It means Halliday have to go 77-23 to BREAK EVEN in that spot (armed with a bad form offence to boot) . Even first ballot hall of famers will have trouble achieving that in baseball where a 100-62 record is the gold standard.

Spyder31 · 08-26-10, 02:31 PM

Baseball is definitely a game of trends. You got some good advice from everyone whos posted here. The main thing is dont get greedy and go over your 5%. Some games look good but dont go over your betting limit. If you have a 100 dollar balance you should be betting 5 dollars a game. It doesnt matter if its MLB or NBA, stick to your limit. Youll be ok.

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by Spyder31

Baseball is definitely a game of trends. You got some good advice from everyone whos posted here. The main thing is dont get greedy and go over your 5%. Some games look good but dont go over your betting limit. If you have a 100 dollar balance you should be betting 5 dollars a game. It doesnt matter if its MLB or NBA, stick to your limit. Youll be ok.

thats what im planning to do right now spyder31..
what do you think the limit should be?
i think it should be around 15-25..is that off??? or just ok?

CHAZ · 08-26-10, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Power Play

CFor moneyline it's useful to convert the ML to the winning percentage to help visualize bad and good lines. For example the -340 Phillies ML yesterday equates to a winning percentage of over 77 percent. It means Halliday have to go 77-23 to BREAK EVEN in that spot (armed with a bad form offence to boot) . Even first ballot hall of famers will have trouble achieving that in baseball where a 100-62 record is the gold standard.

You can see the Accuscore thread where bdevil and I post charts with moneylines converted to the winning percentage daily.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/580843-accuscore-mlb-pick-system-p11.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by Power Play

Current forms matter a lot in baseball. Phillies seasonal stats look good offensively but now they cannot be depended on currently. Pitcher's form are also important. Orioles starters for example have been awesome lately regardless of their terrible ERAs. For moneyline it's useful to convert the ML to the winning percentage to help visualize bad and good lines. For example the -340 Phillies ML yesterday equates to a winning percentage of over 77 percent. It means Halliday have to go 77-23 to BREAK EVEN in that spot (armed with a bad form offence to boot) . Even first ballot hall of famers will have trouble achieving that in baseball where a 100-62 record is the gold standard.

yeah...your right about that sir..and btw just because a great pitcher is playing great does not guarantee a win..but in the philly yesterday i have enough trust with the philly bats so i took them..
maybe its better to remove the consideration of liking a team and focus more on how they are showing on recent outings..

and to the heavy chalks you said earlier..i think im learning that quickly..got burried by STL time and time again

ayuntalo · 08-26-10, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by CHAZ

You can see the Accuscore thread where bdevil and I post charts with moneylines converted to the winning percentage daily.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ystem-p11.html

i just checked your link and saw the ML converted on to winning %..
just a dumb question sir..how can i utilize that?
we already know how heavily favored a team is..like STL with carp..
sorry if this is not a good question

gryfyn1 · 08-26-10, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

pwerplay its nice to talk to you man..
i feel like i want to add funds now and start my assignment..
i feel like i should have a paper where i list the teams and how are they doing so in that case i will keep track of how they are doing as of late and not being blinded by their big name and star studed lineup
i also think its nice to check the pitcher deeply and not just to look at their names and era..
for example a bad pitcher may have an ugly ERA but pitching well against a certain team

Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Baseball Statistics and History

Fangraphs.com

These two site will give you just about any info you want on play stats/splits