Just a reminder, folks

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 02:05 PM

"Total" crapshoot.

gushman · 08-22-10, 02:06 PM

I agree completely....I don't play baseball totals anymore. I'd rather flip coins for cash

lakerboy · 08-22-10, 02:07 PM

What happened? Which one fukked you?

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 02:08 PM

Four examples from today:

Paco's two picks and Teddy Covers' two picks. All solid. All headed in the right direction line-wise before the game.

0-4.

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 02:08 PM

i've made more money on totals than i have betting dogs in baseball.

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 02:09 PM

what were the picks no coin?

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

What happened? Which one fukked you?

I don't play totals anymore, LB.

I just observe. Saw a lot of great cappers were on totals today, and I'm not seeing many winners.

I also saw paco hit that under yesterday with the Tigers. Can you imagine being on that over?

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

what were the picks no coin?

DET/CLE under
BAL/TEX under
MIL/SD over
WASH/PHI over

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 02:12 PM

Again, FTR, I love totals in NFL and NBA. Would rather play totals than sides there.

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

DET/CLE under
BAL/TEX under
MIL/SD over
WASH/PHI over

Det - last steam was on Over and 63% on under
Bal- last 3 steams were on over.. 59% on under
Mil last 3 steams were on under 63% on over
Phil is unique game was steamed all the way to 9 (over was the right play, but lost.... can't win every game)

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

Det - last steam was on Over and 63% on under
Bal- last 3 steams were on over.. 59% on under
Mil last 3 steams were on under 63% on over
Phil is unique game was steamed all the way to 9 (over was the right play, but lost.... can't win every game)

I must've been looking at different numbers than you.

Plus, didn't DET open at 8?

lakerboy · 08-22-10, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

DET/CLE under

08/22 13:03 7½ +100 / 7½ -103
08/22 13:04 7½ -101 / 7½ -111
08/22 13:05 7½ -103 / 7½ +101

late money on the over

BAL/TEX under
08/22 12:25 9½ +103 / 9½ -114
08/22 12:44 9½ +104 / 9½ -115
08/22 13:28 9½ +103 / 9½ -114
08/22 13:33 9½ +100 / 9½ -110
08/22 13:34 9½ -102 / 9½ -108

money came in on over

MIL/SD over
08/22 13:54 9 -120 / 9 +109
08/22 13:55 9 -115 / 9 +104
08/22 14:00 9 -113 / 9 +102
08/22 14:01 9 -110 / 9 +100

line dropped 10 cents in 7 minutes

WASH/PHI over
i will give you that one but the line never moved of 8.5 at pinny.

Are you reading the lines the right way?

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I must've been looking at different numbers than you.

Plus, didn't DET open at 8?

yes Det opened 8 -113

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Are you reading the lines the right way?

I was watching the line right until the last 2-3 minutes, when obviously things changed in the last minute on the first two. Didn't watch the MIL/SD line as closely.

Again, the DET line opened at 8. I saw the late jump from -103 to -111 on the under only.

og4667 · 08-22-10, 03:05 PM

late money on the A's under

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 03:06 PM

late money on SD game didn't prove to be a winner...i guess the steaming of the start 9 +102 and closing line was 9 -110 proved to be the winner..

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

late money on SD game didn't prove to be a winner...i guess the steaming of the start 9 +102 and closing line was 9 -110 proved to be the winner..

And the TEX/BAL under was miraculously three outs from hitting.

Totals are fluky nonsense.

Sawyer · 08-22-10, 03:45 PM

I must admit that baseball totals are very tricky. Definetely, basketball totals are more easier to beat and cap..

The problem about Baseball Totals is, a pitcher with high ERA can pitch a good game while a pitcher with low ERA can get shelled in 3rd inning.

Bullpens are another problem. Even Arizona pen can pitch good games. You don't know which players will get the ball after 7th inning but you can increase your chance if you pick a sick-bullpen team like Brewers or Zona.

If you want to be succesful in baseball totals, you should be VERY selective. Wait for the right opportunity and hammer it! There may be times where you won't have any plays for 2-3 days.

Another advice is, reduce the role of starters when capping a game. Believe me, their role is less then %50, maybe %40.

Motivation is also important. Hammer the UNDER when a good pitcher meets an awful pitcher (like Oswalt vs Olsen today or Marquis vs Halladay 2 days ago). Ace pitcher's team (usually) won't give too much run support since they will be relaxed cause they have their ace on the mound. They believe he won't give many runs so they feel comfortable and don't give %100. On the other side, bad pitcher likes the duel the good pitcher and he's pitching a much better game, playing his best game. Just my opinion/theory, feel free to agree or disagree..but works great for me so far..

PS: Make sure home team with good pitcher is not a hot-offensive team like Yanks.

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

I must admit that baseball totals are very tricky. Definetely, basketball totals are more easier to beat and cap..

The problem about Baseball Totals is, a pitcher with high ERA can pitch a good game while a pitcher with low ERA can get shelled in 3rd inning.

Bullpens are another problem. Even Arizona pen can pitch good games. You don't know which players will get the ball after 7th inning but you can increase your chance if you pick a sick-bullpen team like Brewers or Zona.

So if you want to be succesful in baseball totals, you should be VERY selective. Wait for the right opportunity and hammer it! There may be times where you won't have any plays for 2-3 days.

Another advice is, reduce the role of starters when capping a game. Believe me, their role is less then %50, maybe %40.

Motivation is also important. Hammer the UNDER when a good pitcher meets an awful pitcher (like Oswalt vs Olsen today or Marquis vs Halladay 2 days ago). Ace pitcher's team (usually) won't give too much run support since they will be relaxed cause they have their ace on the mound. They believe he won't give many runs so they feel comfortable and don't give %100. On the other side, bad pitcher likes the duel the good pitcher and he's pitching a much better game, playing his best game. Just my opinion/theory, feel free to agree or disagree..but works great for me so far..

PS: Make sure home team with good pitcher is not a hot-offensive team like Yanks.

I agree with all of this, Sawyer.

You also never know when some shitty reliever who was taking a nap in the bullpen gets his name called by surprise and kills an under in about 3 groggy minutes.

Sawyer · 08-22-10, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I agree with all of this, Sawyer.

You also never know when some shitty reliever who was taking a nap in the bullpen gets his name called by surprise and kills an under in about 3 groggy minutes.

Yeah. I can't forget bad beat in Oak vs Tor game just few days ago. Score was 4-1 and I was on Under. A's scored 4 runs in 9th and final score was 5-4, killed my under..

You know I love basketball totals

Btw, you saw my WNBA Thread? 2-0 today so far..

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 04:03 PM

So BAL/TEX goes from being an easy over, to 3 outs away from an under, to being an over on a pointless solo home run in the 9th.

SD/MIL goes from being an under, to a lock for the over, to no one scoring in the last three-plus innings for a push.

You totals players are nuts.

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 04:06 PM

no guarantee winners in gambling my friend.

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by broadway6

no guarantee winners in gambling my friend.

Sides aren't nearly this complicated -- at least in my eyes.

Football and basketball are a different story.

Cheese1976 · 08-22-10, 04:10 PM

I bet only totals, I do quite well - check out my thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ready-win.html

HoulihansTX · 08-22-10, 04:18 PM

Just try to beat the closing line. Its the only thing you can do when gambling.

Like today. I have Boston/Toronto UNDER8.5, nut the game closed 8U(-120). Thats all you can do is beat the closer.

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 04:19 PM

Now the over cashes in MIL....

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 04:22 PM

[quote=HoulihansTX;6031827]Just try to beat the closing line. Its the only thing you can do when gambling.

Like today. I have Boston/Toronto UNDER8.5, nut the game closed 8U(-120). Thats all you can do is beat the closer.

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Just try to beat the closing line. Its the only thing you can do when gambling.

Like today. I have Boston/Toronto UNDER8.5, nut the game closed 8U(-120). Thats all you can do is beat the closer.

[ATTACH]17333[/ATTACH]

The only decent, sane strategy I see with MLB totals, Houli, is taking an under or an over when it moves .5 runs toward an even number.

For instance, an over that goes from 8.5 to 9, or an under that goes from 9.5 to 9. Your BOS/TOR game would be a good example of that.

It takes a lot of action to move an under off its original number. IMHO, you then have the chance to follow the movement, and end up with at least a push more often than not.

I'd never take an under 6.5 when it started at 7, though. If it's a 4-3 game, the original bettors push and you end up out in the cold.

CHAZ · 08-22-10, 04:55 PM

I've gotten to were I have my own rules you could say. I don't bet under on power house hitting teams like Boston or the Yankees. It's either over or no bet. Samething with struggling offensive teams I won't bet overs. Certain parks that are known as a pitchers park like in Oakland I won't bet the over doesn't matter whose pitching or whose hot it's either under or pass. Either way it's still always a gamble.

broadway6 · 08-22-10, 04:58 PM

i like your strategy nocoin

No coincidences · 08-22-10, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by CHAZ

I've gotten to were I have my own rules you could say. I don't bet under on power house hitting teams like Boston or the Yankees. It's either over or no bet. Samething with struggling offensive teams I won't bet overs. Certain parks that are known as a pitchers park like in Oakland I won't bet the over doesn't matter whose pitching or whose hot it's either under or pass. Either way it's still always a gamble.

Might as well just take every west coast under while you're at it.

Darkside Magick · 08-22-10, 05:10 PM

this i have come to realized also...

lakerboy · 08-22-10, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Just try to beat the closing line. Its the only thing you can do when gambling.

Like today. I have Boston/Toronto UNDER8.5, nut the game closed 8U(-120). Thats all you can do is beat the closer.

[ATTACH]17333[/ATTACH]

Pauulzcappin · 08-22-10, 05:53 PM

I played 3 totals today, hit the first two beating the line if I'm not wrong.

Took the over 8 last night on ESPN game and it's now 7.5. I feel bad and it's probably not gonna hit, oh well.