Do you go through swings like this?

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  • Inspirited
    SBR MVP
    • 06-26-10
    • 1789

    #1
    Do you go through swings like this?
    I've been betting on MLB for 44 days. Initially I was crushing and thought it was the easiest thing in the world, but then I was brutally beat down. I've recently been climbing back out but took a hit yesterday.

    My record so far is 202-109 or 61% winners. I know this means nothing without knowing what lines I'm betting at. I'm hitting underdogs at 54%. As you can see I bet an average of 7 games a day.
  • limitation
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-25-09
    • 747

    #2
    It happens all the times for most of the gamblers. Hot streaks and cold streaks will always balance out in the end. Sometimes you feel like you couldn't pick a winner to save your life. And during the hot streak, you feel like everything you bet on is coming out as a winner. That's nothing new. I once had a 8 straight losers and 5 straight winners in back to back day. The most important thing is to stay discipline with your money management and only bet what you can afford to lose. Stay discipline and value your bankroll. Don't chase and don't over bet just to make up loss units. That's the way to be successful. Most of the gamblers have no problems picking winners but they end up going broke because most of them chase big times when they go on losing streaks.
    Comment
    • Pauulzcappin
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-23-10
      • 20295

      #3
      Originally posted by limitation
      It happens all the times for most of the gamblers. Hot streaks and cold streaks will always balance out in the end. Sometimes you feel like you couldn't pick a winner to save your life. And during the hot streak, you feel like everything you bet on is coming out as a winner. That's nothing new. I once had a 8 straight losers and 5 straight winners in back to back day. The most important thing is to stay discipline with your money management and only bet what you can afford to lose. Stay discipline and value your bankroll. Don't chase and don't over bet just to make up loss units. That's the way to be successful. Most of the gamblers have no problems picking winners but they end up going broke because most of them chase big times when they go on losing streaks.
      Comment
      • Inspirited
        SBR MVP
        • 06-26-10
        • 1789

        #4
        I turns out that my early BR growth was due to a hot streak with favorites. Since then I almost bottomed out with them. The lastest uptick has to do with nailing underdogs. I initially was not doing well with them. I just hope I'm not taking another huge fall and am just a break evenish bettor.
        Comment
        • nj6
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 05-09-10
          • 669

          #5
          You bet over 300 games in 44 days? You are betting way too many games.
          Comment
          • HoulihansTX
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 02-12-09
            • 30566

            #6
            Beating the closing line, and managing your money are the only way to make money.
            Comment
            • Inspirited
              SBR MVP
              • 06-26-10
              • 1789

              #7
              So.... I got crushed my last 6 days. I'm hitting only 41% of my games. I am in the midst of most wicked downswing. I dropped from +2002 to +669. The only reason I am in the positive side now is because of underdogs. I've went busto on favorites.

              At least I have a lot of data on my MLB betting experiment and know for sure to stay away from the high moneylines. From -241 to -370 I'm -556. From -171 to -220 I'm -400. Oddly enough, I'm +311 from -221 to -240. From -151 to -160 I'm -238 and from -131 to -140 I'm -143. From -101 to -130 I'm +735, -141 to -150 I'm +133, -161 to -170 I'm +182.
              Comment
              • solobass
                SBR MVP
                • 01-15-09
                • 1277

                #8
                The best thing is data maintenance. You understand where your wins and losses are coming from. During a season like mlb, NHL, or NBA it is a series of very small refinements that will keep you at the top. Do not swing the pendulum too hard.
                Comment
                • slimpickins
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 08-12-10
                  • 891

                  #9
                  There are always going to be swings up and down.
                  I go 5 in a row wins and 5 in a row loses all of the time.

                  You can be mildly successfully keeping your bests the same size all of the time or you can either go broke or make a good amount of money increasing units when you are on streak to positive and decreasing when you start to slide.
                  For me this has worked this year but also can bankrupt you quickly, as it brings more luck into the equation.
                  I have successfully risked a week worth of profits near the end of a good week on 1 play but agree it is not a good strategy.
                  Comment
                  • Dukebluejms
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-21-09
                    • 1633

                    #10
                    Originally posted by nj6
                    You bet over 300 games in 44 days? You are betting way too many games.
                    I agree with this totally. I don't know the size of your bankroll or the amount you are playing, but either way 7 games in a day is a sh!t ton!!! You definitely should consider dropping this number when you hit a rough patch. And to reiterate what everyone else has said: DO NOT CHASE YOUR LOSSES! This will only decrease your roll faster. BOL
                    Comment
                    • Inspirited
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-26-10
                      • 1789

                      #11
                      This has been an amazing week. Everything has been flipped upside down. I really think that I'll finally get out of this tomorrow. If not I could be back at zero growth. It's almost as if I've been seeing the stats of each team paired with the other team.

                      Of all weeks to start betting with my SBR points!
                      Comment
                      • Inspirited
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-26-10
                        • 1789

                        #12
                        Here's an updated and more accurate graph. As you can see, in the last 9 days I went from my season high of ~+2000 back down to 0. I was hitting 61.8% of my games before this. Since then I've been hitting only 40.6%. It's like everything got completely turned upside down.


                        Comment
                        • jorge1
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-06-10
                          • 3520

                          #13
                          Great graph...

                          yeah, Bases are funny like that. You can make BANK initially but sooner or later you get pulled back down...I am really convinced that bases are all about streaks, for both the sport, and the cappers. Everyone is either on a winning streak, or on a losing streak.

                          When you hit a winning streak go go and go! but as soon as you turn around and start comin down, take a day or two off. In july i made almost 6k, then started to dangerously plateau in august...so i took all last week off to keep from losing BR...

                          Hope it helps, just a thought!
                          Comment
                          • lunchbawks
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-31-10
                            • 12873

                            #14
                            i bet on over 50 MLB games this season, came out with 8 dollars profit.

                            betting baseball is not worth my time, i threw in the towel a week ago. NO MORE BASES
                            Comment
                            • G's pks
                              Restricted User
                              • 01-01-09
                              • 22251

                              #15
                              Maybe figure out the date it started to turn down and next year quit at that point...there are several guys that got destroyed this week...
                              Comment
                              • Inspirited
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-26-10
                                • 1789

                                #16
                                August 20th was my last good day.
                                Comment
                                • Inspirited
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-26-10
                                  • 1789

                                  #17
                                  Despite the fact that the last 50 days have been for nothing, I still learned a lot over this stretch and will definitely be cutting out a lot of games in the future if the line is not good for me.
                                  Comment
                                  • jorge1
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-06-10
                                    • 3520

                                    #18
                                    I am sorry to hear so many ppl have lost money this week..funny thing is that i took this week off as vacation from the frustrations of gambling..lol

                                    Last year i became VERY profitable in late august through the end of the year, so this should be prime time for me now into september...i feel like gears are shifting and start playing MLB different than earlier in the season.

                                    Now its "the race" time. So its best to look at which teams are healthy, which teams are in the hunt and are looking to make something out of this season, etc etc...

                                    I feel like now it will be easier to see who will win based on what i mentioned...BOL guys
                                    Comment
                                    • G's pks
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-01-09
                                      • 22251

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Inspirited
                                      Despite the fact that the last 50 days have been for nothing, I still learned a lot over this stretch and will definitely be cutting out a lot of games in the future if the line is not good for me.

                                      Remember the books usually do pretty well the last month or two of each sports season a lot of favs have locked up their playoff spots and take it easy...last year in basketball with about two weeks left it just got silly! All the favs were losing ...I sat and watched similar to what is already happening very early this year...

                                      The strongest teams should secure homefield advantage...once they do that I would always avoid...
                                      Comment
                                      • Bo$$ Bet$
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 07-08-10
                                        • 3062

                                        #20
                                        I love everyones insight and help on here
                                        Comment
                                        • G's pks
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 01-01-09
                                          • 22251

                                          #21
                                          seems like you were doing very well! Maybe see if you could just cut down to a handful of games a week...
                                          Comment
                                          • Inspirited
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-26-10
                                            • 1789

                                            #22
                                            I found out some odd info. When I pick and even number of road and away teams I am -575. If I have 1 or 2 more home teams I am +577. If I have 1 more away team than home team I am +1251. If I pick 3 or more home teams than away teams I am -626. If I pick 2 or more away teams than home teams I am -626.
                                            Comment
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