Aggressive Money Making

[dj_destroyer]

Alright, since the All-Star break, I've been lurking in here checking out the touts and other guys. I've slowly developed a system and I believe it is a winner now. I've posted profits throughout August and now I'm going to bump up the units and really attack the books. Basically, I take a summary of all the tout selections along with a few plays that really pop out at me. I then go through a rigorous system of checks and indicators to start weeding out plays until I have what I feel are the best +EV opportunities. I post a percentage of the BR you should bet according to the player edge and bingo, PROFIT. Anyways, so far the breakdown looks like this:

1.0% = 18 plays, 12 wins, 6 losses (67%) Net: +$545.80 ROI: 27.95%
1.5% = 10 plays, 7 wins, 3 losses (70%) Net: +$491.60 ROI: 30.12%
2.0% = 9 plays, 6 wins, 3 losses (67%) Net: +$428.60 ROI: 22.06%
2.5% = 2 plays, 1 wins, 1 losses (50%) Net: +$75.20 ROI: 14.11%
3.0% = 1 plays, 1 wins, 0 losses (100%) Net: +$193.40 ROI: 60.99%

Date Play % Risk To Win W/L Net $10,000.00
05/08/2010 Rockies [-153] 2.5 250 163.4 L -250 $9,750.00
05/08/2010 Phillies [-117] 1 100 85.5 W 85.5 $9,835.50
05/08/2010 Dbacks [-133] 1.5 150 112.8 W 112.8 $9,948.30
06/08/2010 Cardinals [-119] 2 199 167.2 W 167.2 $10,115.50
06/08/2010 Astros/Brewers O8 [-110] 1 99.5 90.5 W 90.5 $10,206.00
06/08/2010 Royals/Mariners O7 [-110] 1 99.5 90.5 W 90.5 $10,296.50
07/08/2010 Twins [-134] 2 205.9 153.7 W 153.7 $10,450.20
07/08/2010 Angels/Tigers O9 [-110] 2 205.9 187.2 W 187.2 $10,637.40
08/08/2010 PASS 0 0 0 P 0 $10,637.40
09/08/2010 Dbacks/Brewers O9 [-110] 1.5 159.6 145.1 W 145.1 $10,782.50
09/08/2010 Brewers [-136] 1.5 159.6 117.4 L -159.6 $10,622.90
10/08/2010 Reds [-130] 2 212.5 163.5 L -212.5 $10,410.40
10/08/2010 Rangers [-133] 1.5 159.3 119.8 W 159.3 $10,569.70
11/08/2010 Angels [-164] 3 317.1 193.4 W 193.4 $10,763.10
11/08/2010 Marlins/Nationals O9 [-120] 1 105.7 88.1 W 88.1 $10,851.20
12/08/2010 Ravens -4 [-110] 1 108.5 98.6 W 98.6 $10,949.80
12/08/2010 Nationals [-101] 1 108.5 107.4 L -108.5 $10,841.30
12/08/2010 White Sox [-121] 2 217 179.3 L -217.0 $10,624.30
13/08/2010 Twins [-154] 1 106.2 69.0 W 69.0 $10,693.30
13/08/2010 Rangers [-127] 1 106.2 83.6 W 83.6 $10,776.90
13/08/2010 Bills/Redskins O33 [-105] 1 106.2 101.1 W 101.1 $10,878.00
14/08/2010 Giants [+106] 1.5 163.2 173.0 W 173.0 $11,051.00
14/08/2010 Marlins/Reds O9.5 [-110] 1 108.8 98.9 L -108.8 $10,942.20
15/08/2010 Athletics/Twins U8.5 [-119] 1.5 164.1 137.9 W 137.9 $11,080.10
15/08/2010 White Sox [-141] 1 109.4 77.6 L -109.4 $10,970.70
15/08/2010 Tigers/White Sox O10 [-107] 2 218.8 204.5 W 204.5 $11,175.20
16/08/2010 Astros [-115] 1.5 167.6 145.7 L -167.6 $11,007.60
16/08/2010 Padres/Cubs O8.5 [-115] 1.5 167.6 145.7 W 145.7 $11,153.30
16/08/2010 Orioles [-127] 1 111.8 88.0 W 88.0 $11,241.30
16/08/2010 Jays [+120] 1 111.8 134.2 W 134.2 $11,375.50
17/08/2010 Red Sox -1.5 [+156] 1 113.8 177.5 W 177.5 $11,553.00
17/08/2010 Indians/Royals U7.5 [-110] 1.5 170.6 155.1 W 155.1 $11,708.10
17/08/2010 Padres/Cubs O8.5 [-115] 1.5 170.6 148.3 L -170.6 $11,537.50
17/08/2010 White Sox [+110] 2 227.5 250.3 L -227.5 $11,310.00
18/08/2010 Yankees -1.5 [+115] 2.5 282.8 325.2 W 325.2 $11,635.20
18/08/2010 White Sox [+140] 1 113.1 158.3 L -113.1 $11,522.10
18/08/2010 Dbacks [+110] 1 113.1 124.4 L -113.1 $11,409.00
19/08/2010 Dodgers [-138] 2 228.2 165.4 W 165.4 $11,574.40
19/08/2010 Oakland [-125] 2 228.2 182.6 W 182.6 $11,757.00
19/08/2010 Royals [-110] 1 114.1 103.7 L -114.1 $11,642.90
20/08/2010 Braves [-127] 1 116.4 91.7 W 91.7 $11,734.60

Starting tomorrow, I will double the percentages and instead of betting around 5% of the BR a day, I'm going to spend 10-15%. Tail or fade, the choice is yours. I know this is a small sample but I like to take advantage while it's hot!

[KingKolzig]

so u have made about $1,700?

[dodger33]

Interesting...

[dj_destroyer]

so u have made about $1,700?

Correct... $1734.60 -- See you guys tomorrow!

[Darkside Magick]

not bad at all!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dj_destroyer]

Someone made this a blog for me? Should I still post in the threads? I'm confused.

[BookieRobber]

i will keep an eye on this thread to see how you do...bol

[dj_destroyer]

I'm restarting the count even though I'm up money so we can all track our progress together. I suggest you jump on right away, the last 40 picks have been very profitable and I expect it to continue for about 40 more picks. That should just run us into September then we'll call it a season for baseball. Good luck and happy tailing!

Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $10,000
ROI: %
Yesterday: 0-0
This week: 0-0
This month: 0-0

Rays [-132] 6% -600 to win 454.55
Braves [-154] 4% -400 to win 259.74
Astros [+122] 3% -300 to win 366
Padres [-115] 2% -200 to win 173.91
Padres/Brewers O9 [-115] 2% -200 to win 173.91

Destroy the Books!

[dodger33]

good luck!

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $9,728.46
Spent: $1700.00
Returned: $1428.46
Net: -$271.54
ROI: -15.97%
Yesterday: 2-3 (-$271.54)
This week: 2-3 (-$271.54)
This month: 2-3 (-$271.54)

Twins [-114] 6% -583.71 to win 512.03
Padres [-128] 4% -389.14 to win 304.02
Nationals/Phillies O8.5 [-125] 4% -389.14 to win 311.31
Padres/Brewers O9 [-110] 4% -389.14 to win 353.76
Braves [-130] 4% -389.14 to win 299.34
Vikings +2.5 [-102] 3% -291.85 to win 286.13

Destroy the Books!

[daneault23]

Looks good

[Baller85]

Best of luck.

[therber2]

Good luck DJ. Is this based entirely off of tout selections? You mentioned some filters..what are they?

[dj_destroyer]

It's not scientific in any way so there aren't actually specific filters but I'll give you guys an idea of my capping methodology.

1. Tally up all current tout selections available from the spread, SBR, fantasybetszone, and handicappingtrends; allotting more weight to stronger/hotter cappers.
2. Rank plays and compare for weaknesses against a personal power ranking I develop using various sabermetrics (about 40 of them), it is a huge database and takes an hour in itself to compile and predict.
3. Go through MLB.com's "Probable Pitchers" and eliminate any games with a negative indicator (L3, L5 years vs. team's hitters, write up, etc.)
4. Check league/division standings, read local news stories from each city, analyze situational trends; all in an effort to isolate which teams have more motive to play hard.
5. Use the Covers matchups page to check L10 hitting/pitching stats, vs. L/R hitting stats, H/A pitching/hitting, injuries, etc.
6. Go through the pitcher's history of started games and analyze IPs, PpI, PpG, RS, etc.
7. Umpired stats.
8. Starting lineups
9. Weather
10. Location/stadium/distance traveled
11. Finally, the last step is with everything I know about the game, to put myself in the shoes of the ball players from each team and try to predict how each will play. This is very subjective but often it goes overlooked to think about the players themselves instead of all the stats and trends.

Anyways, hope that helps and good luck today.

[dj_destroyer]

4-2 for +$788.16

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $10,516.62
Spent: $4132.12
Returned: $4648.74
Net: +$516.62
ROI: +12.51%
Yesterday: 4-2 (+788.16)
This week: 6-5 (+$516.62)
This month: 6-5 (+$516.62)

See you tomorrow!

[ttm]

Keeping and eye out for this, very similar to myself. Best of luck

[Footballtime]

Looks like some good stuff here, will be keeping an eye out also, GL FBT

[zacharyj53]

Looks like a good one to me.

[dodger33]

Congrats on the positive day!

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $10,516.62
Spent: $4132.12
Returned: $4648.74
Net: +$516.62
ROI: +12.51%
Yesterday: 4-2 (+788.16)
This week: 0-0 ($0.00)
This month: 6-5 (+$516.62)

Braves [-117] 4% -420.66 to win 359.54
Royals/Tigers O9.5 [-115] 4% -420.66 to win 365.79
Twins/Rangers O10.5 [-107] 4% -420.66 to win 393.14
Reds [+123] 3% -315.50 to win 388.06
Jays [-120] 3% -315.50 to win 262.92

Destroy the Books!

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $9988.51
Spent: $6025.10
Returned: $6013.61
Net: -$11.49
ROI: -0.2%
Yesterday: 2-3 (-$528.11)
This week: 2-3 (-$528.11)
This month: 8-8 (-$11.49)

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $9988.51
Spent: $6025.10
Returned: $6013.61
Net: -$11.49
ROI: -0.2%
Yesterday: 2-3 (-$528.11)
This week: 2-3 (-$528.11)
This month: 8-8 (-$11.49)

Athletics [-108] 6% -599.31 to win 755.13
Dbacks/Padres O7.5 [-110] 5% -499.43 to win 454.03
Yankees/Jays O10 [-110] 5% -499.43 to win 454.03
Braves [+103] 3% -299.66 to win 308.65
Reds [+103] 3% -299.66 to win 308.65

Destroy the Books!

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $9898.71
Spent: $8222.59
Returned: $8121.30
Net: -$101.29
ROI: -1.23%
Yesterday: 2-3 (-$89.80)
This week: 4-6 (-$617.91)
This month: 10-11 (-$101.29)

Braves [-116] 5% -494.94 to win 426.67
Reds [+105] 5% -494.94 to win 519.69
Angels [-119] 5% -494.94 to win 415.92

[Prey]

Good luck man, get that ROI back on track

[Shempy]

Good luck DJ, you are doing alot of work there.

[dj_destroyer]

No word of a lie, I just puked watching that Cincy game. Literally puked... I've never had that feeling before. It was bad enough to see the braves blow a 9 run lead but for TWO teams to do it in one night, my body just couldn't handle the lack (or opposite) of dopamine/endorphins.

Side note/question: If dopamine/endorphins cause good feelings, what causes bad feelings?

[dj_destroyer]

Cinci wins and the endorphins are back.

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $10339.38
Spent: $9707.41
Returned: $10046.79
Net: +$339.38
ROI: +3.49%
Yesterday: 2-1 (+$440.67)
This week: 6-7 (-$177.24)
This month: 12-12 (+$339.38)

See you tomorrow.

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $10339.38
Spent: $9707.41
Returned: $10046.79
Net: +$339.38
ROI: +3.49%
Yesterday: 2-1 (+$440.67)
This week: 6-7 (-$177.24)
This month: 12-12 (+$339.38)

Athletics [-115] 4% -413.58 to win 359.63
Twins [+143] 4% -413.58 to win 591.42
Twins/Rangers O7.5 [-103] 4% -413.58 to win 401.53
Marlins [+106] 3% -310.18 to win 328.79

Destroy the Books!

[dj_destroyer]

3-1 for +$908.16

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $11,247.54
Spent: $11,258.33
Returned: $12,505.87
Net: +$1247.54
ROI: +11.08%
Yesterday: 3-1 (+$908.16)
This week: 9-8 (+$730.92)
This month: 15-13 (+$1247.54)

[DaBA]

what's up dj? you posting this at covers too?

[ttm]

Good day

[frankbettor]

good luck the rest of the way.

[dj_destroyer]

what's up dj? you posting this at covers too?

Very similar... but not the same. That was a silly contest so the stakes are low and I usually play a lot more plays and include my own 'gut' plays or what have you. This is my real bankroll... I would post it at Covers but I get banned for talking about tout selections so I just post here where I get the info and no one complains. I need to do these types of journals or I just run rampant with betting lol... This keeps me in line, I like having my bank account look exactly like it is here on the website. Sometimes I even calculate all the info before looking at the bets just to test myself (and the bookies to a lot lesser extent :P ) but ya... Was away at a cottage the past couple days so let's get back into it with some winners!

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $11,247.54
Spent: $11,258.33
Returned: $12,505.87
Net: +$1247.54
ROI: +11.08%
Yesterday: 3-1 (+$908.16)
This week: 9-8 (+$730.92)
This month: 15-13 (+$1247.54)

Reds -1.5 [+115] 6% -675.5 to win 776.82
Dbacks [+134] 4% -449.90 to win 602.87

Destroy the Books!

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $11,174.91
Spent: $12,383.73
Returned: $13,558.64
Net: +$1174.91
ROI: +9.49%
Yesterday: 1-1 (-$72.63)
This week: 10-9 (+$658.29)
This month: 16-14 (+$1174.91)

Giants -1.5 [+116] 5% -558.75 to win 648.15
Padres [+100] 5% -558.75 to win 558.75

Destroy the Books!

[dj_destroyer]

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.00
Current Bankroll: $11,264.31
Spent: $13,501.23
Returned: $14,765.54
Net: +$1264.31
ROI: +9.37%
Yesterday: 1-1 (+$89.40)
This week: 0-0 ($0)
This month: 17-15 (+$1264.31)

Texas -1.5 [-102] 9% -1013.79 to win 993.91
White Sox/Indians O9 [-103] 9% -1013.79 to win 984.26

Destroy the Books!