How would this betting strategy work

[Point Given]

Now I am sure some people have tested it just was curious on your thoughts.

You would have to bet a sportsbook like 5dimes where you could play RRL.....and play both teams -1.5. Now both teams would have to be atleast +101 for you to make money unless you wanted to bet heavier on one side.

So basically your betting that the game would not be a 1 run game, by the looks of it if you would of done it on a day like today you would of made pretty good money, I would guess so far only losing on the mets game.

I have never tested it I was just curious if anyone has.

I was also thinking of picking 1 team and doing it in a chase.

Thanks for your input.

[iloseagain]

edit nvm

[swagger]

I dont get it. care to explain a little more

[chrisharvard01]

i see what you are saying, but around 54% of games are won by more than one run. So, you have a 46% chance of losing, which is close to actually capping the game and playing one side to make more money

[jorge1]

Ill run a quick test. Suppose you catch an average of RL = +150, and an average of RRL = + 150. So for each game you win you net +50 bucks. For each game you lose you net -200 (100 for one side, 100 for the other). Here are the results:

MON 9th: 6-3: 300 - 600 = -300
TUE 10th: 12-3: 600 - 600 = 0
WED 11th: 11-4: 550 - 800 = -250
THU 12th: 6-4: 300 - 800 = -500
FRI 13th: 7-8: 350 - 1600 = -1250
SAT 14th: 8-7: 400 - 1400 = -1000
SUN 15th: 12-3: 600 - 600 = 0
MON 16th: 6-2: 300 - 400 = -100
TUES 17th: 11-4: 550 - 800 = -250
WED 18th: 7-8: 350 -1600 = -1250

TOTAL: -4900 pesos...not too good of an idea amigo.

[tim0402]

wow thats horrible anyway we could do the opposite and make $?

[swagger]

so either you win little or lose allot. you'd be better of doing some research and making capps

[jorge1]

Another idea (for that THEORY) is to play the +1.5 RL for every game...play the underdog...i think in the LONG RUN its not profitable, but lets see HYPOTHETICALLY how well it works...

For the period specified above we had a 86-46 record...86 games were won by 2 or more, 46 were by 1. Lets just HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING that the DOGS win 35% of the time of those 86 times the result is won by 2 or more... here are the results:

If we get a price of -150 (average) for the +1.5 RL, we win 86*.35= 30 games of the 86.

so record taking + RL is 56 - 76.

betting 100 each game at -150 odds:

56*150 = 8400
76*100 = 7600

7600-8400 = -1200

STILL LOSING...

CAP GAMES!

[bradleysnyder]

being patient is the only betting system that works.

[Darkside Magick]

being patient is the only betting system that works.

grindin is the only way to go!!

[jorge1]

Ive been documenting closely my wins and loses and my daily lessons...Lately this is what i have learned....

The pros say NEVER BET MORE THAN 1 - 3% per bet. If you wanna cap (succesfully) several games a day you either gotta be GOOD and a NATURAL, or you gotta devote ALOT of TIME TO IT!

If you devote alot of time to betting you wanna see a return, so how much is your time worth? Lets say you wanna make a salary of 500 per week, hypothetically...so you wanna make 100 per day. To make 100 per day, lets just say you cap 5 games a day and usually hit 3 out of 5....(WHICH IN THE LONG RUN IS HIGH 60%!!!!!!)

So you need to profit 100 off the one game you won loss free...if 100 is 3% of your bankroll, then you need a 3300 bankroll.

So, in MY OPINION, and there are MANY MANY others out there that are WAY MORE experienced than i am, but in my opinion you either need a substantial bankroll (5000 or more) and alot of time in your hands, or simply do this:

Take your time to cap 2, max 3 games per day, and ride.

Thats it...long story short, its what i have learned after the last year and change of trying to make somethin out of this bettin joint...

[Point Given]

I would not play every game. I was just posting that today there were a lot of bigger spread winners, I just have never played any systems before.

Here are the 2 different way I was either going to play this:

1. I was thinking of setting up some kind of system where, both pitchers would have to have a higher WHIP, ERA or where the over/under # was 9+ etc, playing it that at least one pitcher is going to be really bad.

2. Playing a chase for 1 team. Now there are some teams that you would have to stay away from, but if you look at the Marlins for instance, so far in the month of August they have had a game where it was a 1.5 spread 11 times and 5 times that it wasn't with no more then 2 consecutive games that there was 1 run game. I also looked at the Twins and they were also 11-5 in the same scenario.

When I was looking at the Cleveland/KC game tonight I seen that the RL on both teams was +170, with both pitchers being avg - below avg.


Thanks for the input everyone.

[Point Given]

Tomorrow I would be looking at the Colorado/Arizona game, both pitchers are below avg, O/U is 9.5 and its in Arizona where lots of runs are scored.