I love the Texas Rangers going with Tommy Hunter tonight at +105.
The Rangers are clearly overall the better team here as their record is better, they have better hitting, and clearly the better bullpen. In fact, the Angels may have the worst bullpen in baseball.
The Angels are starting one of their best pitchers tonight in Ervin Santana. This is the only reason the Angels are favored, but I dont think it is justified even with Santana starting.
Santana comes in with a 3.55 ERA. He has 20 starts for a total of 137 innings pitched, so he is going nearly 7 innings per start. This is something that he will need to able to do tonight, as it is important that he keep the Angel bullpen out of the game for as long as possible.
However, I think with this potent Ranger offense, he will be out of the game by the end of the sixth inning. Eevn though Santana has gone deep into a lot of games, he has been very hittable this season. He has a decent, but not great 3.55 ERA, he has also allowed right at 1 hit per inning. Santana has given up 42 walks and 17 Home Runs.
On the other side of the ball, the Rangers start Tommy Hunter. Hunter has an impressive 8-0 record this season. He has a 2.31 ERA but has still managed to fly under the radar. Hunter now has 10 starts for a total of 62 innings pitched. He has only allowed 52 hits, and only allowed 7 home runs.
So while Santana is more of a proven long term pitcher, it is getting to the points where Hunter can no longer be brushed off as just having thrown a few good starts. He now has 10 starts and has not taken a loss yet. In fact, an 8-0 record in just 10 starts is veery impressive as he is picking up the win in 80% of his starts.
I think another big big advantage the Rangers have in this game is their hitting. The Rangers have an undeniably better lineup.
Rangers
Andrus .268
Young .307
Hamilton .362
Guerrero .307
Nelson Cruz .330
Murphy .255
Arias .286
Angels
Aybar .279
Isturis .237
Callaspo .274
Abreu .253
Matsui .251
Kendrick .270
Napoli .251
So the Rangers have 4 .300+ hitters, and the Angels have noone in their lineup hitting even .280. The Rangers are also a home run threat with Young, Hamilton, Guerreo, and Nelson Cruz. The Angels on the other hand dont pack much of a threat for the long ball.
Another big advantage here for the Rangers is the bullpen. The Rangers have a lot of strong relievers to bring in. Ogando with a 1.31 ERA, ODay with a 1.30 ERA and Fransisco with a 3.34 ERA just to mention a few.
the Angels have struggled with relief pitching all year. They were off last night, which is an advantage for them. But in their last game, the Angels only got 5 outs from their starter, Scott Shields, so their bullpen was used for 7 innings and gave up 5 earned runs.
A lot is being made of this series being very important to the Angels as they are getting very close to being out of the divisional race. But to me, its far more important to the Rangers. Lets be real, the Angels are not going to make the playoffs, they are barely avoiding falling under .500, the Rangers on the other hand have the third best winning percentage in baseball, and could still catch the Yankees for the best record if they finish strong. They will have to crush their divisional opponents to do this.
The Rangers at +105 with Tommy Hunter ( 8-0 2.31 ERA ) is the play tonight.
The Rangers are clearly overall the better team here as their record is better, they have better hitting, and clearly the better bullpen. In fact, the Angels may have the worst bullpen in baseball.
The Angels are starting one of their best pitchers tonight in Ervin Santana. This is the only reason the Angels are favored, but I dont think it is justified even with Santana starting.
Santana comes in with a 3.55 ERA. He has 20 starts for a total of 137 innings pitched, so he is going nearly 7 innings per start. This is something that he will need to able to do tonight, as it is important that he keep the Angel bullpen out of the game for as long as possible.
However, I think with this potent Ranger offense, he will be out of the game by the end of the sixth inning. Eevn though Santana has gone deep into a lot of games, he has been very hittable this season. He has a decent, but not great 3.55 ERA, he has also allowed right at 1 hit per inning. Santana has given up 42 walks and 17 Home Runs.
On the other side of the ball, the Rangers start Tommy Hunter. Hunter has an impressive 8-0 record this season. He has a 2.31 ERA but has still managed to fly under the radar. Hunter now has 10 starts for a total of 62 innings pitched. He has only allowed 52 hits, and only allowed 7 home runs.
So while Santana is more of a proven long term pitcher, it is getting to the points where Hunter can no longer be brushed off as just having thrown a few good starts. He now has 10 starts and has not taken a loss yet. In fact, an 8-0 record in just 10 starts is veery impressive as he is picking up the win in 80% of his starts.
I think another big big advantage the Rangers have in this game is their hitting. The Rangers have an undeniably better lineup.
Rangers
Andrus .268
Young .307
Hamilton .362
Guerrero .307
Nelson Cruz .330
Murphy .255
Arias .286
Angels
Aybar .279
Isturis .237
Callaspo .274
Abreu .253
Matsui .251
Kendrick .270
Napoli .251
So the Rangers have 4 .300+ hitters, and the Angels have noone in their lineup hitting even .280. The Rangers are also a home run threat with Young, Hamilton, Guerreo, and Nelson Cruz. The Angels on the other hand dont pack much of a threat for the long ball.
Another big advantage here for the Rangers is the bullpen. The Rangers have a lot of strong relievers to bring in. Ogando with a 1.31 ERA, ODay with a 1.30 ERA and Fransisco with a 3.34 ERA just to mention a few.
the Angels have struggled with relief pitching all year. They were off last night, which is an advantage for them. But in their last game, the Angels only got 5 outs from their starter, Scott Shields, so their bullpen was used for 7 innings and gave up 5 earned runs.
A lot is being made of this series being very important to the Angels as they are getting very close to being out of the divisional race. But to me, its far more important to the Rangers. Lets be real, the Angels are not going to make the playoffs, they are barely avoiding falling under .500, the Rangers on the other hand have the third best winning percentage in baseball, and could still catch the Yankees for the best record if they finish strong. They will have to crush their divisional opponents to do this.
The Rangers at +105 with Tommy Hunter ( 8-0 2.31 ERA ) is the play tonight.
