First the recap, went an aggravating 0-1-2 yesterday with 2 pushes, as both the Rockies and White Sox scored two runs in the last inning to take my winners away. I think that was my first losing day in a week. Let's get back on track. For today, Im looking at the Twins/Royals game. How can you ignore what the Twins are doing right now? They are tearing the cover off the ball and I think that just might continue tonight against a pitcher like Bruce Chen. Chen is 0-2 in his last 3 starts giving up 24 hits in only 15 innings pitched and an ERA of 7.20. Carl Pavano is going for the Twins and he has been fantastic as of late. He is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, surrendering only 18 hits and a awesome ERA of 1.75. There are two things that make me think that he is not so fantastic tonight. One is why is this line so low? The Twins just f'n murdered this same Royals team last night and now they have their hottest pitcher going and they are a modest -140 favorite? Two, I see that Pavano got crushed earlier this year against this Royals team back in April. He lasted only 3.1 innings pitched giving up 11 hits and 7 runs. It took him 23 pitches an inning to get 3 outs in that start. Are the books expecting that same type of result from Pavano tonight? I don't think the Royals will crush him the same way they did back in April, but I do think they get at him tonight, especially after that poor performance last night.
Angel Hernandez is behind the plate and he favors high scoring games. He is 12-7 to the over in 19 games umpired this year. He only calls a strike 62% of the time and his games average 7 walks per game. He has umped 2 of Pavano's starts in his career. The total number of runs in those games: 25 RUNS. With both games obviously going over the posted total. I also found out the Over is 4-0 in Hernandezs last 4 Tuesday games behind home plate. Over is 5-0 in Hernandezs last 5 games behind home plate vs. Minnesota, and the Over is 6-1-1 in Hernandezs last 8 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City. Bruce Chen is a lefty and that's not good news for him. The Twins are batting a scorching .317 against lefties in the last 10 games. Chen also faced this Twins team on June 10th, going 6.1 innings giving up 10 hits and 5 runs, but somehow managed the win in a 9-8 shootout win. It's a hot and sticky 89 degrees right now in KC and the wind is blowing SSW at 9mph which means it is blowing out to left, left center.
It may be a public play, yes, but I find it hard to believe there will not be 9 runs scored in this game. Over is 8-3 in Twins last 11 games following a win. Over is 10-4-1 in Twins last 15 vs. American League Central. Over is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. I also found out the Over is 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 Tuesday starts. When these two match up the Over is 5-1-1 in Pavanos last 7 starts vs. Royals. Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Kansas City, and the Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.
I also found a ridiculous amount of trends that favors the Over when Chen is on the rubber:
Over is 5-0 in Chens last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Over is 7-1-1 in Chens last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1 in Chens last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 starts a home underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 home starts.
Over is 5-1-1 in Chens last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Chens last 5 starts as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Chens last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota Twins/KC Royals Over 9 (-110)
Risking 220 to Win 200
Angel Hernandez is behind the plate and he favors high scoring games. He is 12-7 to the over in 19 games umpired this year. He only calls a strike 62% of the time and his games average 7 walks per game. He has umped 2 of Pavano's starts in his career. The total number of runs in those games: 25 RUNS. With both games obviously going over the posted total. I also found out the Over is 4-0 in Hernandezs last 4 Tuesday games behind home plate. Over is 5-0 in Hernandezs last 5 games behind home plate vs. Minnesota, and the Over is 6-1-1 in Hernandezs last 8 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City. Bruce Chen is a lefty and that's not good news for him. The Twins are batting a scorching .317 against lefties in the last 10 games. Chen also faced this Twins team on June 10th, going 6.1 innings giving up 10 hits and 5 runs, but somehow managed the win in a 9-8 shootout win. It's a hot and sticky 89 degrees right now in KC and the wind is blowing SSW at 9mph which means it is blowing out to left, left center.
It may be a public play, yes, but I find it hard to believe there will not be 9 runs scored in this game. Over is 8-3 in Twins last 11 games following a win. Over is 10-4-1 in Twins last 15 vs. American League Central. Over is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. I also found out the Over is 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 Tuesday starts. When these two match up the Over is 5-1-1 in Pavanos last 7 starts vs. Royals. Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Kansas City, and the Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.
I also found a ridiculous amount of trends that favors the Over when Chen is on the rubber:
Over is 5-0 in Chens last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Over is 7-1-1 in Chens last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1 in Chens last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 starts a home underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 home starts.
Over is 5-1-1 in Chens last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Chens last 5 starts as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Chens last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota Twins/KC Royals Over 9 (-110)
Risking 220 to Win 200
No push here
