First the Recap, went 1-1 on Monday pulling out a small profit with the Royals cashing as 20 cent dogs. For Wednesday we have a full slate of afternoon games and I believe I have found the winner. I'm looking at this Blue Jays/Royals game and this total certainly intrigues me. We have Marc Rzepczynski going for the Blue Jays (Don't worry if you said "who"? I dont blame ya) and Zack Greinke going for the Royals. Rzepczynski has started 1 game this year and he got a no decision against the Twins going 5.2 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 runs. He did strike out 7, but also gave up 2 dingers. He has came in relief in 2 games since that start facing 4 batters and striking out 3 of them and giving up no runs so the Blue Jays must have some sort of confidence in him. He is a southpaw and the Royals are currently hitting .252 in their last 10 against left-handed starters. The Royals counter with their ace Zack Greinke. He is 2-1 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 3.43. He started against the Blue Jays back in April and gave a strong effort of 7 innings pitched, eight strikeouts, and only surrendered 2 hits and got the win. I'm expecting that same effort today. Onto the umpire in today's game. We have Mike Eastbrook calling the balls and strikes and boy am I glad to see him. Mike calls a lot of low scoring games. Out of 17 games this year only 5 have gone over the total when he is umping. This guy rings up a lot of people. He is averaging 14.2 strikeouts per game, only 5.8 walks, and he calls a strike 63.3% of the time. I searched farther and found out the Under is 3-0-1 in Estabrooks last 4 games behind home plate vs. Toronto. Better yet, the Under is 6-2 in Estabrooks last 8 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City. And overall the Under is 44-21-2 in Estabrooks last 67 games behind home plate. WOW. Back to the pitching matchup stats which favor my play today. When Greinke is on the rubber versus the AL East the Under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Under is 8-1 in Greinkes last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and the Under is 6-1 in Greinkes last 7 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Vegas has the Royals at -175 for today's match. Also Under is 29-9-1 in Greinkes last 39 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game and the Under is 23-10-1 in Greinkes last 34 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Those really are nice numbers to anyone backing the under here and that's exactly what I'm going to do. Right now it is at 8½, but I won't be surprised if this one goes to 8. Wish everyone the best of luck this afternoon let's make some monies. As always, for good measure here are a few other things that I found that support my play today:
Under is 3-1-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-3-1 in Blue Jays last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Royals last 7 Wednesday games.
Toronto Blue Jays / Kansas City Royals Under 8½ (-115)
Risking 230 to Win 200
*Bonus Parlay*
Played this one for fun, but I sincerely think it has a chance.
TAMPA BAY: J SHIELDS (-200)
MINNESOTA: F LIRIANO (-200)
TORONTO KC: UNDER 8.5 (-115)
50 TO WIN 160.33
Under is 3-1-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-3-1 in Blue Jays last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Royals last 7 Wednesday games.
Toronto Blue Jays / Kansas City Royals Under 8½ (-115)
Risking 230 to Win 200
*Bonus Parlay*
Played this one for fun, but I sincerely think it has a chance.
TAMPA BAY: J SHIELDS (-200)
MINNESOTA: F LIRIANO (-200)
TORONTO KC: UNDER 8.5 (-115)
50 TO WIN 160.33
Anytime Gushman!
