The Dodgers are a Lock tonight with Clayton Kershaw on the mound.
This game is starting to get steamed now as the Dodgers were +110 earlier and are now down to +103 in some places. Still, The Greek has them at +105 and thats very +EV for a team that will win the game tonight.
The Dodgers starting are Clayton Kershaw, who continues to be wildly underrated. Kershaw has a 2.96 ERA for the season just .76 higher than Ubaldo Jiminez' league leading 2.20. Kershaw also has thrown for 113 innings pitched allowing only 85 hits. That comes up to about .75 hits per inning, which is excellent. He has also only allowed 7 Home Runs in those 113 innings.
The Cardinals start Chris Carpenter. This guy seems to get so much more hype than Kershaw, but teh numbers dont really justify it. Carpenter's numbers are worse in just about every area. He has a higher ERA, which currently stands at 3.29. He has also allowed 118 hits in 125 innings pitched. So Carpenter is giving up about .95 hits per inning compared to the .75 hits per inning for Kershaw.
Carpenter has also been taken deep several times this year. He has yielded exactly twice as many Home Runs as has Kershaw this season. Now to be fair, Carpenter does pitch his home games in a more hitter friendly park than does Kershaw, yet this can't totally explain away having given up twice as many long balls in virtually the same amount of innings pitched.
I also believe the Dodgers have a far superior lineup. The top of their lineup is brutal. They lead off with All Star Rafael Furcal batting .333 and brining a lot of speed. When he gets on, he is always a threat to steal and thus will divide the attention of the opposing pitcher.
Then comes Kemp only batting .261, but still a big threat. Then the number 3 and 4 hitters, Andre Either and Loney both batting well over .300. So 3 of the top 4 guys in this lineup are batting well over .300 and thats hitting their home games in a pitchers park.
Then the 5 through 8 hitters, Blake, Paul, Martin and Dewitt all hitting very strong ~ .265 to .270 averages. There is no break in this lineup except the #9 pitchers spot.
The Cardinal offense on the other hand is the one that gets all the hype. But this offense just isnt as good as its billing, and it wasnt that long ago that this team went through a run where they were scoring like the Seattle Mariners. Now obviously noone is going to question the ability of Pujous and Holliday. These are two very tough hitters, but thats about all the Cardinals bring.
Now yes Jon Jay is batting .377, but thats in 69 total career at bats. That will surely fall and probably down to .250 or less very soon. I think everyone realizes this is not really a .377 batter, in fact not even a .300 batter. Other than that, the Cardinals lineup is a real struggle. They generally bring Lopez, Stavinhoa, Molina, and Greene. All mid .200 or lower hitters.
I think Kersaw is a smart enough pitcher that he will keep it safe with Pujous and Holliday. He knows that if he doesnt let these 2 guys do a lot of damage, that is about 90% of the job with this team. he can handle the other 7 pretty easily. So, I wouldnt doubt seeing Pujous and Holliday draw a few walks, or maybe get a couple hits, but they wont be allowed to have big nights.
Kershaw is clearly the better pitcher here, and The Dodgers have better bats, and a better win loss record. Just have to love this team at +105 tonight.
This game is starting to get steamed now as the Dodgers were +110 earlier and are now down to +103 in some places. Still, The Greek has them at +105 and thats very +EV for a team that will win the game tonight.
The Dodgers starting are Clayton Kershaw, who continues to be wildly underrated. Kershaw has a 2.96 ERA for the season just .76 higher than Ubaldo Jiminez' league leading 2.20. Kershaw also has thrown for 113 innings pitched allowing only 85 hits. That comes up to about .75 hits per inning, which is excellent. He has also only allowed 7 Home Runs in those 113 innings.
The Cardinals start Chris Carpenter. This guy seems to get so much more hype than Kershaw, but teh numbers dont really justify it. Carpenter's numbers are worse in just about every area. He has a higher ERA, which currently stands at 3.29. He has also allowed 118 hits in 125 innings pitched. So Carpenter is giving up about .95 hits per inning compared to the .75 hits per inning for Kershaw.
Carpenter has also been taken deep several times this year. He has yielded exactly twice as many Home Runs as has Kershaw this season. Now to be fair, Carpenter does pitch his home games in a more hitter friendly park than does Kershaw, yet this can't totally explain away having given up twice as many long balls in virtually the same amount of innings pitched.
I also believe the Dodgers have a far superior lineup. The top of their lineup is brutal. They lead off with All Star Rafael Furcal batting .333 and brining a lot of speed. When he gets on, he is always a threat to steal and thus will divide the attention of the opposing pitcher.
Then comes Kemp only batting .261, but still a big threat. Then the number 3 and 4 hitters, Andre Either and Loney both batting well over .300. So 3 of the top 4 guys in this lineup are batting well over .300 and thats hitting their home games in a pitchers park.
Then the 5 through 8 hitters, Blake, Paul, Martin and Dewitt all hitting very strong ~ .265 to .270 averages. There is no break in this lineup except the #9 pitchers spot.
The Cardinal offense on the other hand is the one that gets all the hype. But this offense just isnt as good as its billing, and it wasnt that long ago that this team went through a run where they were scoring like the Seattle Mariners. Now obviously noone is going to question the ability of Pujous and Holliday. These are two very tough hitters, but thats about all the Cardinals bring.
Now yes Jon Jay is batting .377, but thats in 69 total career at bats. That will surely fall and probably down to .250 or less very soon. I think everyone realizes this is not really a .377 batter, in fact not even a .300 batter. Other than that, the Cardinals lineup is a real struggle. They generally bring Lopez, Stavinhoa, Molina, and Greene. All mid .200 or lower hitters.
I think Kersaw is a smart enough pitcher that he will keep it safe with Pujous and Holliday. He knows that if he doesnt let these 2 guys do a lot of damage, that is about 90% of the job with this team. he can handle the other 7 pretty easily. So, I wouldnt doubt seeing Pujous and Holliday draw a few walks, or maybe get a couple hits, but they wont be allowed to have big nights.
Kershaw is clearly the better pitcher here, and The Dodgers have better bats, and a better win loss record. Just have to love this team at +105 tonight.
