Second Semester SMACKdown

[Grind-It-Out]

Thanks guys. Also, if you ever want an updated record, just let me know and I'll post it.

After seeing today's card, I think I might have to reevaluate unit sizes, but I'll stick with what I've got today.


7:05 Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +105 (5 units)
7:05 Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers -105 (5 units)
7:05 Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins -1.5 +125 (5 units)
7:05 Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians
Cleveland Indians 1.5 -123 (1 units)
UNDER 9 +100 (2 units)
7:05 Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
New York Yankees -1.5 -115 (5 units)
OVER 10 +100 (5 units)
7:10 Atlanta Braves vs Florida Marlins
OVER 8 -115 (3 units)
8:05 Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +110 (5 units)
OVER 8 +105 (3 units)
8:35 NY Liberty vs Chicago Sky
Chicago Sky 0 (2 units)
9:40 San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants -110 (5 units)
10:05 Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics -136 (5 units)
10:10 New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers -114 (5 units)

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1:05 St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs -132 (5 units)
1:05 Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals +1.5 +100 (5 units)

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Updated Record:

35-30, +28.92
Z = 0.98

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Adding...

4:05 Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics -122 (3 units)
UNDER 8 -105 (5 units)
4:10 Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies -1.5 +105 (5 units)
OVER 8.5 -105 (1 units)
4:10 New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers -131 (2 units)
OVER 8.5 +105 (5 units)

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Adding...

7:05 San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres -1.5 -105 (2 units)
7:05 Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins -1.5 +125 (1 units)
7:10 Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers -136 (1 units)
7:10 Atlanta Braves vs Florida Marlins
Florida Marlins +100 (2 units)

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Adding...

8:10 San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants -105 (5 units)

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Adding some more, but don't have time to double check which ones I already added, so this is the complete card for the 7:00 games.

7:05 San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres -1.5 -105 (5 units)
7:05 Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros
OVER 6.5 -110 (5 units)
7:05 Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins -1.5 +125 (1 units)
UNDER 9 +100 (5 units)
7:05 Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians
UNDER 8.5 +100 (5 units)
7:05 Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays -105 (5 units)
7:10 Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers -136 (1 units)
OVER 9.5 +105 (5 units)
7:10 Atlanta Braves vs Florida Marlins
Florida Marlins +100 (2 units)
OVER 8 -105 (5 units)

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Final additions (probably)...

8:05 Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels +112 (5 units)
8:10 San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants -105 (1 units)
10:10 Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 1.5 +115 (5 units)

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I'm on fire! Hopefully it stays that way.

As of this post:

Record: 49-37, +55.02 units (1 - 5 units per bet)
Z-Score: 1.55

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My plays for the 1:00 round of games.

1:05 Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +120 (1 units)
1:05 Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals 1.5 +125 (5 units)
UNDER 10 +100 (5 units)
1:10 Atlanta Braves vs Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +125 (5 units)
UNDER 8.5 +100 (5 units)
1:30 Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies +116 (5 units)
1:35 Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins -125 (1 units)
UNDER 9.5 +105 (5 units)


For poops and giggles, I also have a 4-team, $100 parlay with KC UNDER, Atlanta ML, Col ML and MIN UNDER. This parlay will not be included in my results.

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2:00 games....

2:05 Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros
Houston Astros +120 (5 units)
2:10 Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers -142 (2 units)
OVER 9.5 +100 (5 units)

[BeatingBaseball]

Kudos on a strong run.

Given what is apparently a highly purist mathematical approach, surprised you would bet a parlay even for "fun."

[Grind-It-Out]

Kudos on a strong run.

Given what is apparently a highly purist mathematical approach, surprised you would bet a parlay even for "fun."

Generally I'm all about maximizing EG, but I'm bored as hell on a Sunday so I figured I'd give myself some entertainment.

Plus, a parlay of +EV bets has more +EV then those bets all placed separately, so it's not a terrible bet.

[Grind-It-Out]

Adding...

4:05 Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics -1.5 +135 (5 units)
4:10 San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants -1.5 +125 (1 units)
UNDER 8 -105 (5 units)
4:10 New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +125 (2 units)
4:10 Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +125 (2 units)
OVER 7.5 +100 (5 units)

[BeatingBaseball]

I was not aware, and am still not sure how, a series of +EV bets in a parlay mathematically increases the +EV.

In a parlay, let's say even a 2 teamer, are you not in effect wagering on one game and if it wins then doubling (a form of chasing, be it in reverse) the wager on another unrelated game - and, worse yet, are you not letting the book decide after the results are in which game you had the big all or nothing bet on? I don't see how this could be + in any way.

How does one mathematically justify increasing the wager on a second contest based on the result of the first unrelated contest, especially after srongly supporting the statement of "bztips" in Think Tank/Rules to live by/#42:

Originally Posted by bztips
BB,
Unless you have some reason to believe that a loss in Game #1 has some actual positive influence on winning Game #2 (which is highly unlikely), then you don't have any justification for INCREASING your bet size on #2, which is what chasing tells you to do.

"You're assuming a goal of maximizing long-term success. For whatever reason, that is not everyone's goal."

A parlay seems a worse "chase" than the series play we were talking about back then because the parlay teams are truly "unrelated" and a series between the same two teams, esp to those who know baseball, not nearly as much.

I realize that EV and EG are two different things and that the parlay may only contravene Kelly, but seeing you are such a strong supporter of Kellly the play still surprises me. Maybe it's because for me, there is no such thing as "fun money" in gambling. I suuspected you felt the same.

But no big deal. I really just wanted to congratulate you on the run. I'm always fascinated by people who can find +EV plays in the first place. There are not that many. Personally, with the exception of one conference in college basketball, MLB is the only sport I have been able to do it in with significant, consistent success. I take a mathematical approach to the gambling part, but a combined and more fundamental approach to the baseball part of it. I'd be interested if you do the same or if you use a purely math formulaic approach to your EV calculations.

At any rate, best of luck. Whatever you're doing you should keep it up. It's obviously working.

[Grind-It-Out]

I was not aware, and am still not sure how, a series of +EV bets in a parlay mathematically increases the +EV.

In a parlay, let's say even a 2 teamer, are you not in effect wagering on one game and if it wins then doubling (a form of chasing, be it in reverse) the wager on another unrelated game - and, worse yet, are you not letting the book decide after the results are in which game you had the big all or nothing bet on? I don't see how this could be + in any way.

How does one mathematically justify increasing the wager on a second contest based on the result of the first unrelated contest, especially after srongly supporting the statement of "bztips" in Think Tank/Rules to live by/#42:

Originally Posted by bztips
BB,
Unless you have some reason to believe that a loss in Game #1 has some actual positive influence on winning Game #2 (which is highly unlikely), then you don't have any justification for INCREASING your bet size on #2, which is what chasing tells you to do.

"You're assuming a goal of maximizing long-term success. For whatever reason, that is not everyone's goal."

A parlay seems a worse "chase" than the series play we were talking about back then because the parlay teams are truly "unrelated" and a series between the same two teams, esp to those who know baseball, not nearly as much.

I realize that EV and EG are two different things and that the parlay may only contravene Kelly, but seeing you are such a strong supporter of Kellly the play still surprises me. Maybe it's because for me, there is no such thing as "fun money" in gambling. I suuspected you felt the same.

But no big deal. I really just wanted to congratulate you on the run. I'm always fascinated by people who can find +EV plays in the first place. There are not that many. Personally, with the exception of one conference in college basketball, MLB is the only sport I have been able to do it in with significant, consistent success. I take a mathematical approach to the gambling part, but a combined and more fundamental approach to the baseball part of it. I'd be interested if you do the same or if you use a purely math formulaic approach to your EV calculations.

At any rate, best of luck. Whatever you're doing you should keep it up. It's obviously working.

Thanks for the congrats. Yes, all the picks are math based, and yes, I am a strong proponent of Kelly, however I don't strictly follow it.

I don't see a problem with placing bets for fun, but you just have to know what you're doing. I wouldn't put $3000 on a parlay, because it's -EG and that's way out of my price range for a "fun" play. Similarly, if I have no idea who has the edge on a Monday Night Football game, I'll throw $5 on a random team just to give it entertainment value.

That being said, this is only partially a "fun" bet, which is why I bet more than $5 on it. If you notice, Kelly tells you to bet parlays in addition to straight bets when playing multiple games at once. For example, if you Kelly told you to bet 6% or your roll on one team and 5% on another, it would also tell you play something like a 0.6% parlay of both teams. I played all of these teams straight for a larger amount, so this kinda falls under that pretense.

All in all, it's probably a wager with HUGE +EV and small -EV. So, no, not a wager I should get in the habit of placing, but we all make mistakes

[Grind-It-Out]

Rough afternoon, but it's expected sometime.

8:05 St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
St Louis Cardinals -127 (5 units)
OVER 6.5 -130 (1 units)
8:05 Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels 1.5 +110 (5 units)
OVER 10 +100 (5 units)

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7:05 Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 (5 units)
UNDER 9 -105 (5 units)
7:05 New York Yankees vs Cleveland Indians
New York Yankees -1.5 -115 (5 units)
UNDER 9 -115 (5 units)
7:10 Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +115 (4 units)
OVER 8 -110 (5 units)
8:05 Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros
OVER 9 +100 (5 units)
8:10 Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds +100 (3 units)
OVER 8.5 -115 (1 units)
8:10 Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals -105 (5 units)
OVER 7.5 +110 (4 units)
8:10 Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox
OVER 7 +105 (5 units)
10:15 Florida Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants -127 (5 units)
OVER 7 -105 (5 units)