MLB Picks: Getting back on my feet

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  • WillC
    SBR MVP
    • 11-10-09
    • 1831

    #1
    MLB Picks: Getting back on my feet
    Quite a story I've got

    Started gambling just 9 months ago. What was intended to be a recreational hobby to make games worth watching eventually turned into a powerful addiction. I went on an incredible streak in the nba and cbb (something I knew absolutely nothing of) and turned my initial deposit from $100 to thousands mainly due to parlays within my first 2 months of gambling.

    I distinctly remember myself going 9-0 in one of those NFL playoff competitions at SBR which coincided with my bankroll skyrocketing to around 11k thanks to my terrible management skills. Along came Superbowl, a spectacle that I've never watched in my lifetime. I had turned from a $5 fun bettor from day 1 into a crazy man betting $4k on the superbowl just 4 months later.

    2-0 on that night and I was on top of the world, thought this was just too easy and eventually greed took it's toll. Been on tilt for the last few months and 16k has just vanished in the last 3 months.

    So here I am, redeposited $200 back at pinny yesterday and my god it seems like de ja vu again. 12-1 in the past 24 hours and I'm up to $904.67 with the following 2 bets pending:
    Giants ML/Rays U9/Rochus [46/173.68]
    Giants -1 [50/57.5]

    My old self would've chucked half the b/r on Texas and Tampa today but I know im better than that, it's been one heck of a roller coaster ride for me with plenty of lessons learnt. I know I can cap winners. Like all rookies, greed and management has been my downfall. Going to keep track of my picks here to help keep me in line and not do anything stupid. Hopefully my head stays above water in the long run.

    Continuation from http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...edictions.html

    Letting my pending bets ride but I love that rays/Indians under.

    Good Luck
  • Wilforth
    Restricted User
    • 05-10-08
    • 16309

    #2
    Great thread! Will always visit this place.

    Like you said, greed and mismanagement are the frequent downfalls in one's early days in this business. You normally get over that with time.

    Comment
    • DaProfessor23
      SBR MVP
      • 12-07-08
      • 1180

      #3
      great thread , good read . wish you the best of luck , keep the money flowing in .
      Comment
      • WillC
        SBR MVP
        • 11-10-09
        • 1831

        #4
        Originally posted by WillC
        My old self would've chucked half the b/r on Texas and Tampa today but I know im better than that,
        Today has been surreal. I was ready to concede the Giants and they score 5 runs out of their asses. Almost feel obliged to play the late game given the day I've had.


        Mariners 5 game slump and 2rpg, Yankees 7 game streak and 6rpg ... at even odds, this is a no brainer.









        [72.82/75] King Felix ML +103
        Comment
        • WillC
          SBR MVP
          • 11-10-09
          • 1831

          #5
          Originally posted by DaProfessor23
          great thread , good read . wish you the best of luck , keep the money flowing in .
          Appreciate the kind words. Hope you made profit in bases today. Gambling gods treated me well tonight

          Posted MLB Plays: 3-0 [+$306.18]
          fwiw, b/r to date: $1341.28

          Setting the alarm clock to 3am. Rare back to back live MLB games on FTA as well as the world cup in aus.
          Comment
          • WillC
            SBR MVP
            • 11-10-09
            • 1831

            #6
            Boston Redsox -125 [125 to win 100]
            Twins/Tigers U9 100 [75 to win 75]
            San Diego Padres 124 [60.48 to win 75]
            Comment
            • WillC
              SBR MVP
              • 11-10-09
              • 1831

              #7
              LA Angeles -108 [108 to win 100]
              Florida Marlins -105 [78.75 to win 75]
              Comment
              • jhause13
                SBR Sharp
                • 12-27-07
                • 464

                #8
                Great read. BOL to you.
                Comment
                • WillC
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-10-09
                  • 1831

                  #9


                  Live bet after 1.5inn
                  Chicago Cubs +3 -102 [102 to win 100]
                  Comment
                  • Full Time Hobo
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-16-10
                    • 2778

                    #10
                    Nice read.
                    I wish you the best of luck and will check back in here every so often to see how you're doin.
                    Good Luck
                    Comment
                    • paul8888
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 10-12-09
                      • 144

                      #11
                      good shit bro bol. can you keep a record of your ats totals as well that would keep you disciplined
                      Comment
                      • WillC
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-10-09
                        • 1831

                        #12
                        Larger play than normal. Just a feeling Rangers will grind out a win tonight. Good Luck

                        Texas Rangers -103 [155 to win 150]
                        Rangers/Sox U9.5 +102 [75 to win 76.5]
                        Comment
                        • Scully
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-21-06
                          • 1276

                          #13
                          Very interesting read for sure WillC and definitely a solid lesson to be learned in that no matter how successful we are or might become in this kind of business or passtime for that matter, we should never allow our head to get bigger than our wager.
                          I'm somewhat curious in that you mentioned your initial success was a result of parlays and yet I noticed you haven't made one over your past nine or so bets. Any particular reason or are you simply waiting for the right spot or time?
                          Comment
                          • D3 Mighty Ducks
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-17-09
                            • 11939

                            #14
                            Good luck on your plays
                            Comment
                            • WillC
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-10-09
                              • 1831

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Scully
                              I'm somewhat curious in that you mentioned your initial success was a result of parlays and yet I noticed you haven't made one over your past nine or so bets. Any particular reason or are you simply waiting for the right spot or time?
                              Greed and a lot of luck were the reasons of my initial success. As a rookie gambler, I was too focused on that 'huge win' and after hitting some pretty big parlays early on, I became too reliant on these huge favs in every one of my bets

                              A lot of risk management is involved with parlays and I ended up getting exposed by them . Whilst my bankroll got a nice boost, they are just not profitable in the long term and the scarring I witnessed during the Spain ACB finals should keep me well away from parlays for a while.



                              Appreciate everyones comments. Time to up the ante. GL
                              Posted plays: 8-2 [+$572.68]

                              Rays/Yanks U8.5 -105 [ 157.5 to win 150]

                              Houston Astros ML -104 [104 to win 100]
                              Tigers/Indians U8.5 -106 [106 to win 100]
                              Colorado Rockies ML +114 [75 to win 85.5]
                              Tampa Bay +1.5 -126 [94.5 to win 75]
                              Comment
                              • gshock1
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-04-09
                                • 5366

                                #16
                                Great read and something I can relate to. Good luck
                                Comment
                                • Scully
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-21-06
                                  • 1276

                                  #17
                                  Thanks for your feedback as it pertained to my post yesterday WillC. I see you're risking nearly your entire bankroll on tonight's added plays, so lets hope for a solid night at the plate.
                                  Comment
                                  • WillC
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-10-09
                                    • 1831

                                    #18
                                    risking most of my posted profits but not the bankroll.
                                    Tough 30 minutes with nothing going right. Wrong night to increase the units

                                    San Diego Padres ML -106 [79.5 to win 75]
                                    Comment
                                    • Scully
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-21-06
                                      • 1276

                                      #19
                                      Posted plays: 8-2 [+$572.68]
                                      So the number above relates to the profits?
                                      What kind of bankroll did you begin with this time around? Was it the $200?
                                      Comment
                                      • WillC
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-10-09
                                        • 1831

                                        #20
                                        Thats just the total profits for picks made in this thread. I had started with $200 and worked my way up to $900 prior to starting this thread, so add on the profits in this thread to 900 and you have a rough approximation of my b/r.

                                        Posted plays: 11-5 [+$484.18]


                                        Whitesox/Twins U8.5 +105 [150/157.5]
                                        Rangers/Redsox U9 -110 [110/100]

                                        Athletics/Royals U9 -115 [86.25/75]
                                        Atlanta Braves RL +107 [75/80.25]


                                        Good Luck!
                                        Comment
                                        • WillC
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-10-09
                                          • 1831

                                          #21
                                          New York Mets ML +140 [100/140]
                                          Comment
                                          • WillC
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-10-09
                                            • 1831

                                            #22
                                            Posted plays: 13-8 [+$480.43]

                                            New York Mets ML -107 [160.5/150]

                                            D'backs/Padres O7.5 +114 [100/114]
                                            Mariners/Angels U8.5 -103 [103/100]
                                            Washington Nats ML +134 [75/100.5]
                                            Comment
                                            • WillC
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-10-09
                                              • 1831

                                              #23
                                              Chicago Cubs +1.5 -102 [102/100]
                                              Comment
                                              • WillC
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-10-09
                                                • 1831

                                                #24
                                                MLB Plays: 17-9 [+$869.43]
                                                NPB Plays: 0-0

                                                Started following the Japan Baseball League (NPB) a couple of months ago and found it quite enjoyable. Going to have a crack at capping these games as they suit my timezone.

                                                NPB
                                                Yakult Swallows +1.5 +106 [75/79.5]
                                                Swallows/Giants U9 +105 [100/105]
                                                Comment
                                                • ROFLcopter
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                  • 4446

                                                  #25
                                                  Good luck. I enjoyed your story and have shared a similar experience, starting for fun betting $10 a game and soon betting thousands, all to come crashing down. We live and learn.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • WillC
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-10-09
                                                    • 1831

                                                    #26
                                                    Cheers copter, hope all is going well with your plays.

                                                    Going to be a big card tomorrow with several games I like .. especially the cubs under.
                                                    In the meantime, more NPB degen bets

                                                    NPB
                                                    Marines/Fighters U8 +101 [150/150.5]
                                                    Eagles/Buffaloes U8.5 -124 [124/100]

                                                    Stars/Dragons O7.5 +104 [75/76]
                                                    Yokohama Bay Stars +121 [75/90.75]
                                                    Comment
                                                    • redore33
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 02-09-09
                                                      • 198

                                                      #27
                                                      Love your style Will, no "Monsters" or pics (tho that's OK), no 1/2 here on a minor G, and 3 on a major G, or Monster. You seem lo key & make sense. BOL all the way!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Gee
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-08-10
                                                        • 4547

                                                        #28
                                                        japanese baseball also suits my timezone.

                                                        not looking to be a great day on the NPB, but keep posting them up!

                                                        good to see you back at it. lessons in betting can only be learnt the hard way.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • WillC
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-10-09
                                                          • 1831

                                                          #29
                                                          Thanks Redore

                                                          Originally posted by Gee
                                                          japanese baseball also suits my timezone.

                                                          not looking to be a great day on the NPB, but keep posting them up!

                                                          good to see you back at it. lessons in betting can only be learnt the hard way.
                                                          yea, bit of a shocker. Was doing quite well in the NPB the past week but it was no surprise I'd hit the brick wall sooner or later. Feel free to post your opinions/picks on it as I still have plenty to learn (I'm sure anyone can do better than 0-5 ). Getting over the language barrier is tough tho!

                                                          MLB
                                                          Astros/Cubs U8 -111 [166.5/150]

                                                          Nationals/Reds U9 -117 [117/100]
                                                          Blue Jays/Royals U9 +110 [100/110]
                                                          Detroit Tigers -115 [115/100]
                                                          Philadelphia Phillies +116 [75/87]

                                                          BOL tonight
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Scully
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-21-06
                                                            • 1276

                                                            #30
                                                            WillC where are you able to find the NPB available games for wagering purposes?

                                                            By the way thank you for your reply above and bol with your selections tonight.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GroundnPound
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-12-09
                                                              • 4070

                                                              #31
                                                              Will your situation is exactly like mine, you pretty much described my gambling time line.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • WillC
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-10-09
                                                                • 1831

                                                                #32
                                                                http://baseball.yahoo.co.jp/npb/ using translator for npb games.


                                                                MLB
                                                                San Franciso Giants ML 100 [100/100]
                                                                Red Sox/Athletics U8 [11/10]

                                                                Time to batten down the hatches. Must be a hurricane causing all these HR's
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Gee
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-08-10
                                                                  • 4547

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by WillC
                                                                  yea, bit of a shocker. Was doing quite well in the NPB the past week but it was no surprise I'd hit the brick wall sooner or later. Feel free to post your opinions/picks on it as I still have plenty to learn (I'm sure anyone can do better than 0-5 ).
                                                                  yeah, i suppose when you have a stat-sheet, its not too hard to cap games. are you based in japan? how do you get to watch the games? and what sites do you use for your stats/info?

                                                                  MLB in the mornings and NPB after work... could be great
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Gee
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-08-10
                                                                    • 4547

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Scully
                                                                    WillC where are you able to find the NPB available games for wagering purposes?

                                                                    By the way thank you for your reply above and bol with your selections tonight.
                                                                    you can bet on them anywhere... i get it on pinny, bet365 and betfair. i'm sure it is available at most good bookies though.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • WillC
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-10-09
                                                                      • 1831

                                                                      #35
                                                                      2-3 -$246.5; Nats Under, Jays Under and Detroit ...

                                                                      MLB Plays: 19-12 [+$622.93]
                                                                      NPB Plays: 0-5 [-$449]

                                                                      NPB
                                                                      Swallows/Giants U7.5 +100 [125/125]
                                                                      Orix Buffaloes -1.5 -119 [119/100]
                                                                      Yokohama Bay Stars +102 [75/76.5]
                                                                      Comment
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