Well last nights underdog LOCK won by 5 runs and tonights Lock is the Los Angeles Dodgers. I realize -180 is some pretty big chalk to lay, but no price is too high when the play is a lock.
The Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw in this game and his numbers are excellent this year. He has a 2.25 ERA in his 4 starts with 20 innings pitched. He has allowed in those 20 innings a total of 16 hits, only 5 earned runs, 9 walks, and recorded 22 strikeouts. Kershaw has also only allowed 1 home run this season.
His opponent will be Randy Wells starting for the Cubs. Wells has 6 starts for 22 innings pitched. He has a 3.63 ERA but has allowed 23 hits in 22 innings which is over the 1 hit per inning mark. Wells has also allowed 9 earned runs, 7 walks, and recorded 13 strikeouts.
Kershaw --- 2.25 ERA ---20 Innings --16 hits -- 5 ER --9 Walks --- 22 K
Wells -------3.67 ERA---22 Innings ---23 hits --9 ER --7 Walks ---13 K
I think all in all its clear that Kershaw is throwing the ball better and his numbers are better in almost every category. But its also clear that we are going to see a lot of bullpen action in this game. Kershaw is only averaging 5 innings per start and Wells is only averaging 3 1/2 innings per start.
When we get into the bulklpens around the 5th inning I think the Dodgers have a huge advantage as well. The Cub bullpen was worked much harder last night as they used 4 relievers. Last night the Cubs used Russell, Cashner, Marshall and Berg out of their bullpen. The Dodgers got 7 innings out of their starter last night and only used 1 reliever in the game. So everyone with the exception of Miller had the night of last night.
The Previous night, the Cubs also had to use Marshall as well as Marmol. So one of the Cubs best relievers, Marshall with an ERA of 2.13 has been used each of the last 2 nights, and thus I would expect wont be of much use tonight.
On the flip side of that, the Dodgers can bring Schlichting with an ERA of 0.79 and Broxton with an ERA of 1.98. Both these guys are going to be fresh coming off their night off last night.
When we get into the lineups for these two teams, again its clear the Dodgers have the big advantage. There just isn't a break anywhere in this Dodger lineup for Randy Wells. The top of this lineup is Furcal .330 BA, Kemp .266 BA, Either .322 BA, and Loney .307 BA. Not too many teams have 3 of their top 4 guys batting .307 or better. There is noone in the entire Cubs lineup batting .307 or higher.
The middle of this Dodger lineup is also pretty potent. Next comes Blake .258 BA, Garret Anderson who is only batting .182 this season but he is a .300 career hitter so you know he is going to break out of it, Martin .246, then Deweitt at .275 BA.
I think Randy Wells has gotten into a lot of trouble this year but has generally been able to work out of it and limit the damage. Guy is giving up more than 1 hit per inning but has managed just a little under a 4.00 ERA. I think this Dodger lineup is too good from top to bottom and when he starts giving up 1+ hit per inning they are going to make him pay for it.
I would normally shy away from a -180 chalk, but there is no reason to flip the coin on a -110 pick em when the Dodgers are a LOCK.
Good Luck on all plays.
The Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw in this game and his numbers are excellent this year. He has a 2.25 ERA in his 4 starts with 20 innings pitched. He has allowed in those 20 innings a total of 16 hits, only 5 earned runs, 9 walks, and recorded 22 strikeouts. Kershaw has also only allowed 1 home run this season.
His opponent will be Randy Wells starting for the Cubs. Wells has 6 starts for 22 innings pitched. He has a 3.63 ERA but has allowed 23 hits in 22 innings which is over the 1 hit per inning mark. Wells has also allowed 9 earned runs, 7 walks, and recorded 13 strikeouts.
Kershaw --- 2.25 ERA ---20 Innings --16 hits -- 5 ER --9 Walks --- 22 K
Wells -------3.67 ERA---22 Innings ---23 hits --9 ER --7 Walks ---13 K
I think all in all its clear that Kershaw is throwing the ball better and his numbers are better in almost every category. But its also clear that we are going to see a lot of bullpen action in this game. Kershaw is only averaging 5 innings per start and Wells is only averaging 3 1/2 innings per start.
When we get into the bulklpens around the 5th inning I think the Dodgers have a huge advantage as well. The Cub bullpen was worked much harder last night as they used 4 relievers. Last night the Cubs used Russell, Cashner, Marshall and Berg out of their bullpen. The Dodgers got 7 innings out of their starter last night and only used 1 reliever in the game. So everyone with the exception of Miller had the night of last night.
The Previous night, the Cubs also had to use Marshall as well as Marmol. So one of the Cubs best relievers, Marshall with an ERA of 2.13 has been used each of the last 2 nights, and thus I would expect wont be of much use tonight.
On the flip side of that, the Dodgers can bring Schlichting with an ERA of 0.79 and Broxton with an ERA of 1.98. Both these guys are going to be fresh coming off their night off last night.
When we get into the lineups for these two teams, again its clear the Dodgers have the big advantage. There just isn't a break anywhere in this Dodger lineup for Randy Wells. The top of this lineup is Furcal .330 BA, Kemp .266 BA, Either .322 BA, and Loney .307 BA. Not too many teams have 3 of their top 4 guys batting .307 or better. There is noone in the entire Cubs lineup batting .307 or higher.
The middle of this Dodger lineup is also pretty potent. Next comes Blake .258 BA, Garret Anderson who is only batting .182 this season but he is a .300 career hitter so you know he is going to break out of it, Martin .246, then Deweitt at .275 BA.
I think Randy Wells has gotten into a lot of trouble this year but has generally been able to work out of it and limit the damage. Guy is giving up more than 1 hit per inning but has managed just a little under a 4.00 ERA. I think this Dodger lineup is too good from top to bottom and when he starts giving up 1+ hit per inning they are going to make him pay for it.
I would normally shy away from a -180 chalk, but there is no reason to flip the coin on a -110 pick em when the Dodgers are a LOCK.
Good Luck on all plays.
NO payment at all on 125 pts
