fenek created a system, let´s see how it works

[fenek]

i created a formula which gives me the winner of a game. i have to enter different stats, so just mathematics. let´s see how it works, i will do it for every game the next time an unit a play. here we go for tonights games, i will add the missing ones after my work:

sd padres @ was nationals [to win .84]
atl braves @ phi phillies [to win .75]
pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .71]
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win 1.35]
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .75
chi cubs @ ari diamondbacks [to win 1.01]
fla marlins @ la dodgers [to win .59]
min twins @ tor bluejays [to win .78]
bal orioles @ det tigers [to win .51]


like i said before the missing ones will be added in a few hours.... so far you can see that the system is calling the fav most time. i will change and improve the system every day. i am looking forward to the results, thanks for reading.

[iloseagain]

dogs have been killin it lately but lookin foward to see how this works

like most picks except phillies

[fenek]

one add:

bos redsox @ tb rays [to win .57]

dogs have been killin it lately but lookin foward to see how this works

like most picks except phillies

thank you. these are not my personal picks, just the system. i will track them all in this thread so we know in a few weeks if we should bet on these games

[iloseagain]

thank you. these are not my personal picks, just the system. i will track them all in this thread so we know in a few weeks if we should bet on these games

yea i meant i like the picks the system spit out beside that one

[doubledime]

BOL

[Ski powder]

Like that your using stats and math to predict winner will be watching how it goes.Independent thinking in Baseball does not do well.

[fenek]

entered the stats for the missing games, here is the complete card for today:

07/06/2010

sd padres @ was nationals [to win .84]
atl braves @ phi phillies [to win .75]
pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .71]
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win 1.35]
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .75
chi cubs @ ari diamondbacks [to win 1.01]
fla marlins @ la dodgers [to win .59]
min twins @ tor bluejays [to win .78]
bal orioles @ det tigers [to win .51]
bos redsox @ tb rays [to win .57]
cle indians @ tex rangers [to win .43]
la angels @ chi white sox [to win .90]
ny yankees @ oak athletics [to win 1.43]
kc royals @ sea mariners [to win 1.66]

the numbers for texas and the giants are almost even. maybe i have to enter a no-play function, but will wait with it for at least a week, just for a record.
now it´s your turn, winner-system

[fenek]

i will add two plays where the numbers are very impressive, so i will take the RL:

bal orioles @ det tigers -1.5 [to win 1.00]
kc royals -1.5 @ sea mariners [to win 1.10]



for these plays i will track a second record, let´s hope for good numbers

[bigsmitty]

Sounds cool, I look forward to following the stats, etc. Cheers

[tayco]

Let's see how it goes, BOL!

[fenek]

07/06/2010

sd padres @ was nationals [to win .84] L
atl braves @ phi phillies [to win .75] L
pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .71] W
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win 1.35] W
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .75] W
chi cubs @ ari diamondbacks [to win 1.01] L
fla marlins @ la dodgers [to win .59]W
min twins @ tor bluejays [to win .78] W
bal orioles @ det tigers [to win .51] W
bos redsox @ tb rays [to win .57] W
cle indians @ tex rangers [to win .43] W
la angels @ chi white sox [to win .90] L
ny yankees @ oak athletics [to win 1.43] L
kc royals @ sea mariners [to win .66] W

bal orioles @ det tigers -1.5 [to win 1.00] W
kc royals -1.5 @ sea mariners [to win 1.10] L

ML
07/06/2010: 9-5 [+1.35units] 55.55%
total: 9-5 [+1.35units] 55.55%

RL
07/06/2010: 1-1 [+0.00units] 50.00%
total: 1-1 [+0.00units] 50.00%

well, not bad for the first day, but i have the feeling that the dogs could kill me with one bad night. so maybe i have to enter that when the numbers are very clear for one team to play them with more units. but lets check first how it works that way to play them all with one unit. thanks for reading.

[mvp123]

systems are so .....you know but good luck

[Sildenafil]

Not a bad start

I will be keeping an eye on this and wish you good luck

[Ski powder]

This is not so much a system as a Stats gather and winner projector yes? How would it be a system are you doing chase or fades?

[fenek]

systems are so .....you know but good luck

just trying to improve. if you like it you are welcome.. good luck to you, too !

Not a bad start

I will be keeping an eye on this and wish you good luck

yes, thanks. finished the results for todays games. only two dogs for today.. the result for the game cubs@diamondbacks has been almost even, so i will take the diamondbacks +points in the RL record


07/07/2010 ML

sd padres @ was nationals [to win .92]
atl braves @ phi phillies [to win 1.03]
cin reds @ ny mets [to win .81]
pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .81]
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win .75]
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .88]
chi cubs @ ari diamondbacks [to win .89]
fla marlins @ la dodgers [to win .86]
min twins @ tor bluejays [to win .94]
bal orioles @ det tigers [to win .41]
bos redsox @ tb rays [to win .56]
cle indians @ tex rangers [to win .41]
la angels @ chi white sox [to win .85]
ny yankees @ oak athletics [to win 1.10]
kc royals @ sea mariners [to win .65]

07/07/2010 RL

cle indians @ tex rangers -1.5 [to win .76]
bal orioles @ det tigers -1.5 [to win .80]
chi cubs @ ari diamondbacks +1.5 [to win .60]
pit pirates @ hou astros -1.5 [to win 1.85]
sd padres @ was nationals +1.5 [to win .58]

[fenek]

This is not so much a system as a Stats gather and winner projector yes? How would it be a system are you doing chase or fades?

i feed the system with different stats and factors. it has nothing to do with chase or for example when a team has won 3 out of 4 games in a series.. that wouldnt take a part, only the numbers the teams has created so far. lets see how it works, like i said before we have to change a lot until i will bet my money on the results

[bigsmitty]

Good start, I would suggest mathematical stuff but I've read some in-depth formulae that are so beyond my scope I won't even get into it. Cheers

[rawkstarr]

BOL, I love these picks!

[fenek]

07/07/2010 ML

sd padres @ was nationals [to win .92] L
atl braves @ phi phillies [to win 1.03] W
cin reds @ ny mets [to win .81] L
pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .81] W
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win .75] W
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .88] W
chi cubs @ ari diamondbacks [to win .89] W
fla marlins @ la dodgers [to win .86] W
min twins @ tor bluejays [to win .94] W
bal orioles @ det tigers [to win .41] W
bos redsox @ tb rays [to win .56] W
cle indians @ tex rangers [to win .41] W
la angels @ chi white sox [to win .85] W
ny yankees @ oak athletics [to win 1.10] L
kc royals @ sea mariners [to win .65] L

07/07/2010 RL

cle indians @ tex rangers -1.5 [to win .76] L
bal orioles @ det tigers -1.5 [to win .80] W
chi cubs @ ari diamondbacks +1.5 [to win .60] L
pit pirates @ hou astros -1.5 [to win 1.85] W
sd padres @ was nationals +1.5 [to win .58] W

ML
07/07/2010: 11-4 [+4.39units] 73.33%
total: 20-9 [+5.74units] 68.97%

RL
07/07/2010: 3-2 [+1.32units] 60.00%
total: 4-3 [+1.32units] 57.14%

[gtboy]

Can you share the system ur trying to develop. I am a math person myselfand was looking into trying new ways to apply it to betting. thanks.

[statnerds]

no substitute for good timing. i applaud your two day results and offer only one piece of advice.

favorites are 20-8 the last 2 days. that is not normal.

keep in mind they lose an average of 90+ Units per season. it's like trying to time the stock market, nearly impossible. so the fact favorites are winning 58% on the season, but 71% the last two days, is no indication of what today's results will be. favorites could easily win 70% of games the next day, week, or even month.

GL

[fenek]

Can you share the system ur trying to develop. I am a math person myselfand was looking into trying new ways to apply it to betting. thanks.

hello gtboy, first of all thanks for stopping by. the system is only two days old and was created in less then 3hours with my roommate, a computer-math student. the % and w/l stats are looking good right now, but until i will give it to the public i have to change a lot, please dont get it wrong but i´m very excited cause the start is showing promise.. i would suggest you create your own, test it for a few weeks and when the numbers are almost to 60% we can connect both systems. i wish you good luck

[fenek]

no substitute for good timing. i applaud your two day results and offer only one piece of advice.

favorites are 20-8 the last 2 days. that is not normal.

keep in mind they lose an average of 90+ Units per season. it's like trying to time the stock market, nearly impossible. so the fact favorites are winning 58% on the season, but 71% the last two days, is no indication of what today's results will be. favorites could easily win 70% of games the next day, week, or even month.

GL

hello statnerds,

thanks for your input. when i added the stats i had the feeling that the system is calling too often the favo, i know that i have to change a bit, something like a x-factor. we will see, just two days old.

[gtboy]

thanks man. i understand.

[fenek]

here are the picks for the games i have already insert, rest will be added as soon as possible


07/08/2010 ML

pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .57]
la angels @ chi white sox [to win 1.10]
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win 1.07]
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .70]
sd padres @ was nationals [to win .59]
cin reds @ phi phillies [to win .92]

07/08/2010 RL

sd padres -1.5 @ was nationals [to win .95]
pit pirates @ hou astros -1.5 [to win 1.40]

[Dad]

Nice start so far. Good luck with this, I hope it keeps working for you.

[fenek]

Nice start so far. Good luck with this, I hope it keeps working for you.

thank you Dad, i am very excited how it will work the next days !

thanks for stopping by and good luck for you too

[thebayareabeast]

Impressive start.

[Lib208]

good luck man see how it goes..

[therber2]

GL fenek. What is the system?

[fenek]

GL fenek. What is the system?

like i said before, i created with my roommate a computer math-system, i have to insert different stats for the home/away team, pitcher numbers and and and .. at the end when i entered all numbers, which takes about 15minutes to get one possible winner, i have a factor in the system, when it is more than the factor team 1 or under team 2 .. with short words. hope you can imagine how it works. good luck !

[fenek]

finished todays games, here is the complete card

07/08/2010 ML

pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .57]
la angels @ chi white sox [to win 1.10]
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win 1.07]
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .70]
sd padres @ was nationals [to win .59]
cin reds @ phi phillies [to win .92]
fla marlins @ ari diamondbacks [to win .90]
chi cubs @ la dodgers [to win .50]
min twins @ tor bluejays [to win .86]
cle indians @ tb rays [to win .47]
bal orioles @ tex rangers [to win .40]
ny yankees @ sea mariners [to win .64]

07/08/2010 RL

sd padres -1.5 @ was nationals [to win .95]
pit pirates @ hou astros -1.5 [to win 1.40]
bal orioles @ tex rangers -1.5 [to win .80]
ny yankees -1.5 @ sea mariners [to win 1.00]

[fenek]

4-1 so far

[fenek]

07/08/2010 ML

pit pirates @ hou astros [to win .57] W
la angels @ chi white sox [to win 1.10] L
sf giants @ mil brewers [to win 1.07] W
stl cardinals @ col rockies [to win .70] W
sd padres @ was nationals [to win .59] W
cin reds @ phi phillies [to win .92] L
fla marlins @ ari diamondbacks [to win .90] L
chi cubs @ la dodgers [to win .50] W
min twins @ tor bluejays [to win .86] W
cle indians @ tb rays [to win .47] W
bal orioles @ tex rangers [to win .40] L
ny yankees @ sea mariners [to win .64] W

07/08/2010 RL

sd padres -1.5 @ was nationals [to win .95] W
pit pirates @ hou astros -1.5 [to win 1.40] W
bal orioles @ tex rangers -1.5 [to win .80] L
ny yankees -1.5 @ sea mariners [to win 1.00] W

ML
07/08/2010: 8-4 [+1.40units] 66.67%
total: 28-13 [+7.14units] 68.29%

RL
07/08/2010: 3-1 [+2.35units] 75.00%
total: 7-4 [+3.67units] 63.64%

[tayco]

Looks good so far Fen, BOL to you and ur system!