Tracking Home Dogs of +101 to +125 (11-3 79% +9.43u since last Thursday)

[JerseyShop101]

this is not over we need more time to look at it

Exactly. A bit later in the days ahead, I'll look to see what all the losses have in common.

Not to repeat myself, but I'm like everyone else, I sometimes spend hours capping the games (which I really enjoy), and sometimes still wind up hitting in the 56-58% range and still end up losing money because of the chalk.

Does this mean to blindly just pick dogs and "pray" for 50% or more? No, of course not, but I know a lot of cappers with winning records that are close to even in units or even in the red! The chalk can kill. lol.

I'm just going to ride this for a bit. I just can't wait for football.

Not sure, if you guys do those "Open parlays" where you have days to make your selections for your parlay. Anyway, I'm in a contest where the first person to get 10 straight wins in a row (1 pick a day with lines -160 or less) wins a $1500 freeplay at Betmania (owned by Betphoenix). I'm at 7 in a row right now by myself. I need 3 more wins in a row to win this thing!

Wish me luck!

[godhelpme]

GL Jersey, might have to follow you for NFL that's my weakpoint...

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks ghm!

DAY 16
Friday, July 9th plays:

Away Dogs:
CINCINNATI +105
MINNESOTA +115

Home Dogs:
NY METS +101
TORONTO +121

*(I missed out on Oak and SEA lines at +money).

[rgbraves]

tough loss on the Reds

[johnson]

6 in last inning; that was really bad. And PHI will probably will today too.

[curious]

I ran some filters on dogs between 101 and 125 and for today I think you guys should stay away from the Marlins and the Nationals.

I don't know if you use the opening line or the best line of the day and I don't know what book you use, but given the best line you can get right now these dogs look pretty solid:
Cardinals
Angels
Red Sox
Mets

I'd also take these totals:
Cardinals UNDER
Angels OVER
Red Sox UNDER
Mets UNDER

There is another trend I have been tracking, teams that have lost more than 2 games in a row, you fade the dogs and back the favs. These teams are in play today:
Brewers
Tigers
Athletics

[JerseyShop101]

I ran some filters on dogs between 101 and 125 and for today I think you guys should stay away from the Marlins and the Nationals.

I don't know if you use the opening line or the best line of the day and I don't know what book you use, but given the best line you can get right now these dogs look pretty solid:
Cardinals
Angels
Red Sox
Mets

I'd also take these totals:
Cardinals UNDER
Angels OVER
Red Sox UNDER
Mets UNDER

There is another trend I have been tracking, teams that have lost more than 2 games in a row, you fade the dogs and back the favs. These teams are in play today:
Brewers
Tigers
Athletics

Thanks Curious, looks good,

I use 5dimes overnights, but was out and about, I didn't play the Angels, although it was under +125 earlier.

I'm at 8 wins in a row across the street for a Streak for 10 in row $1500 contest. For my play today, I'm still undecided on whether to take the Dodgers with Ely or Detroit with Bonderman, Picks have to -160 or less. Was leaning Dodgers, but now your making it harder for me with your Det backing.

Good luck today my friend.

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 16 FRIDAY's RESULTS:

0-4 -4.00

Away Dog:
CINCINNATI +105 LOST 7-9
MINNESOTA +115 LOST 3-7

Home Dog:
NY METS +101 LOST 2-4
TORONTO +121 LOST 3-14

DOGS of +101 to +125:
ALL 43-34 55.8% +14.20
AWAY 23-18 56.1% +7.87
HOME 20-16 55.6% +6.33

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 17
Saturday, July 10th plays:

Away Dogs:
ST LOUIS +109
BOSTON +105

Home Dogs:
NY METS +105
WASHINGTON +102

[curious]

Thanks Curious, looks good,

I use 5dimes overnights, but was out and about, I didn't play the Angels, although it was under +125 earlier.

I'm at 8 wins in a row across the street for a Streak for 10 in row $1500 contest. For my play today, I'm still undecided on whether to take the Dodgers with Ely or Detroit with Bonderman, Picks have to -160 or less. Was leaning Dodgers, but now your making it harder for me with your Det backing.

Good luck today my friend.

I really like Detroit today. Look at the opposing pitcher. 6 ERA.

[JerseyShop101]

I really like Detroit today. Look at the opposing pitcher. 6 ERA.

True. The only thing that really bothers me is that Bonderman gave up fireworks (7ER) on the 4th of July against Seattle.

Theres a good chance that All Star Justin Morneau will not play today for Minny, so thats a big plus for Detroit also.

[cala56]

Pick houston is the big winner today

[JerseyShop101]

Detroit it is!

Owners of the best home record in the AL at 31-12, the Tigers have batted .326 and averaged 6.2 runs while winning 16 of 18 at Comerica Park.

While the Tigers are rolling at home, the Twins have dropped eight of 10 on the road and could be without Justin Morneau(notes) again. Morneau might miss a third game after suffering a mild concussion when he was accidentally kneed in the head during Wednesday’s 6-5 loss at Toronto.


The first baseman is among league leaders with a .345 average, 18 homers and 56 RBIs, and he’s hitting .360 in seven games against the Tigers.


Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman(notes) (4-6, 4.81 ERA) will try to capitalize on Morneau’s potential absence in an effort to rebound from one of his worst performances of the season.
The right-hander gave up seven runs and nine hits, including two homers, and had his outing cut short when he was ejected after the fifth for arguing with the home plate umpire in an 8-1 loss to Seattle on Sunday.


Bonderman is 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA in eight games - six starts - against the Twins at Comerica Park. He beat them at Minnesota on June 28, yielding four runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 7-5 win.
The Twins will turn to Nick Blackburn(notes) (7-6, 6.00), owner of the league’s highest ERA among qualifying pitchers.


The right-hander was hit hard again Sunday, surrendering seven runs and nine hits in 6 1-3 innings of a 7-4 loss to Tampa Bay. He’s 1-5 with a 9.28 ERA in his last seven trips to the mound, including 0-4 with a 17.74 ERA in four road outings.
Blackburn hasn’t fared well in Detroit either, going 0-3 with a 6.12 ERA in five games - four starts. However, he’s 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA in two meetings - both at home - against the Tigers this year.


Miguel Cabrera(notes) has thrived against Blackburn, going 10 for 22 with one homer. The All-Star first baseman leads the majors with a .346 average and 74 RBIs, while his 21 homers are two behind Toronto’s Jose Bautista(notes) for the most in baseball.


Cabrera is on a career high-tying 17-game hitting streak, during which he’s batted .406 with two homers and 15 RBIs.

[brandong_4243]

thanks man

hopefully it keeps going this well

[cala56]

Detroit is the great

[samgurt]

It doesn't look like this system is gonna hold up after another 0-4 day Would be too easy to make money if it actually worked.

[No coincidences]

I think there's a good chance you get a bounceback day on Sunday.

Detroit +105
White Sox +110
San Diego +110
Oakland +102
St. Louis +101
Toronto +120

All have good chances of hitting IMHO. Bolded are home teams.

[JerseyShop101]

This trend pretty much died 0-8. RIP lol

I need a winner thats no higher than -160 for Sunday to win $1500 in freeplay in a streak for 10 contest!!! I'm at 9 thanks to Detroit yesterday!
The 2nd place guy behind me only has 6 in a row, so its mine for the taking if I get it right.

Sunday seems to be the toughest one to choose from.

Curious,

Your trend went 3-0 on Saturday...

There is another trend I have been tracking, teams that have lost more than 2 games in a row, you fade the dogs and back the favs. These teams are in play today:
Brewers
Tigers
Athletics

Do you have these trend games for Sunday to be: Minn, NYY, NYM, PHI, PITT?

Pavano versus Detroit is a tough one, I could take Minny or take Detroit +1.5 runs. Still looking .....

[redore33]

TB RL -115 @ BP. Love this one, even tho it's a home tm RL! BOL

[rgbraves]

things did dry up rather quickly. It was bound to happen I guess.

[rkelly110]

I've also been tracking 2 or more losses but, I've been betting the dog +RL or ML fav that
lost 2 or more games. Yesterday, went 5 of 8. Fri. 7 of 9. Thurs. 5 of 10. Wed. 1 of 8.
Tues. 6 of 8. Mon. 0 of 1. Total 24 of 44, 54% 11 of 24 +RL wins (46%) and
17 of 24 ML wins (71%)

Tracking from 6/9 to 6/30. Won 90 of 143 gms 63%. Using 67% of wager on +RL and 33%
on ML, gave me +44.4 units profit. Wager $20. (67% is $13.40 on +RL and $6.60 on ML)

From 7/1 to 7/4, 13 of 21, 62% +11.3 units.

Note: these are paper bets.

[curious]

It doesn't look like this system is gonna hold up after another 0-4 day Would be too easy to make money if it actually worked.

It's not a system, it's riding a streak. The streak is over, time to move on.

Look at backing favs who have lost more than 2 games in a row and fading dogs who have lost more than 2 games in a row, you can't do it blind, you have to look at each team's stats in that situation individually. Yesterday they went 3-0, I posted the teams in this thread.

Also look at taking dogs > 200 on the RRL -1 1/2 IF the dog in question has been playing better lately. Baltimore was RRL +495 yesterday and they won. Baltimore has been hitting well lately and Tillman had a great game. Sometimes teams that struggle in the first part of the year, especially if they have a lot of young players start turning things around at the all star break because the young players get exerience and the team makes adjustments.

[curious]

Streaks

These teams should be good plays today based on these streaks:

team streak > 2 and line > 0
White Sox +120
White Sox / Royals UNDER

fade team where streak < -2 and line > 0
Brewers -200 (fading the Pirates)
Brewers / Pirates UNDER

back team where streak < -2 and line > 0
Reds +160
Reds / Phillies OVER

I hit the Orioles RRL for +495 yesterday, let's see if lightening will strike twice in the same spot.

Orioles RRL -1 1/2 +350

[rkelly110]

Right, I do my home work on the games in question. Usually, they avg. w/ in one run
of each other or tied in avg. runs, which makes the +RL a good bet. My research also
shows game one and game 3 are the best opportunities for the 2 or more losses system.
Especially game 3 for a home stand that lost 2 games.

Today, NY Mets and Texas fit the above home stand. But, my research shows game 4
isn't very good at all. Texas is game 4.

[rkelly110]

Thanks curious, it's nice, experienced cappers as yourself, can give us some advise
on capping. Capping is like Roulette, there are so many ways to bet. They can all
win but, they can't win long term.

[curious]

This trend pretty much died 0-8. RIP lol

I need a winner thats no higher than -160 for Sunday to win $1500 in freeplay in a streak for 10 contest!!! I'm at 9 thanks to Detroit yesterday!
The 2nd place guy behind me only has 6 in a row, so its mine for the taking if I get it right.

Sunday seems to be the toughest one to choose from.

Curious,

Your trend went 3-0 on Saturday...


Do you have these trend games for Sunday to be: Minn, NYY, NYM, PHI, PITT?

Pavano versus Detroit is a tough one, I could take Minny or take Detroit +1.5 runs. Still looking .....

I like the fade on the Pirates, don't like the twins or the mets. Yankees didn't show up on my list for some reason. Taking the Reds instead of the Phillies.

I get my stats from www.sportsdatabase.com, run these queries and then sort by $For and $Against

team and season=2010 and line>0 and streak<-2

team and season=2010 and line<0 and streak<-2

This will show you which teams to back and which teams to fade.

To get a list of the days games including streak and line use:
o:team, o:streak, o:line, team, streak, line@date=20100711 and site=home and streak<-2 or o:streak<-2

Just change the date everyday. The date format is YYYYMMDD so if the month or day only has a single digit you have to prefix it with a zero (0). For example, august 1st would be 20100801.

What I do is run the days games query and then copy and paste the results into a spreadsheet (use paste special unicode text), then I insert two columns between the o:line and the team columns. Then I run the other two queries and copy/paste the results into the spreadsheet. Then, I type in the $For and $Against for each team that has a streak < -2, using the results for the line for that team either >0 or <0. That tells you at a glance whether to back the team in question or fade the team in question. A lot of these teams don't have very many results so i throw those out.

I then do the same thing for the OVER/UNDER. For the OVER/UNDER I'm looking for lopsided results on either the UNDER or the OVER for any team in the situation streak < -2.

I've been playing this for a while trying to dig out of the huge hole I was in (bankroll down 40%). I was playing it blind but it seems more effective to look a the stats team by team.

You have to be careful of teams that have a lot of young players who totally sucked at the beginning of the year (like the Orioles). Young players can sometimes turn things around as they get experience and the manager makes adjustments.

[curious]

Right, I do my home work on the games in question. Usually, they avg. w/ in one run
of each other or tied in avg. runs, which makes the +RL a good bet. My research also
shows game one and game 3 are the best opportunities for the 2 or more losses system.
Especially game 3 for a home stand that lost 2 games.

Today, NY Mets and Texas fit the above home stand. But, my research shows game 4
isn't very good at all. Texas is game 4.

I can run the streak stats on the runline, I'll post that if I get time.

I tried looking at the series game but the sample size is really small, only 39 games for series game = 3.

[curious]

Thanks curious, it's nice, experienced cappers as yourself, can give us some advise
on capping. Capping is like Roulette, there are so many ways to bet. They can all
win but, they can't win long term.

In Roulette I like playing the last thing that happened every way possible and use a 1 unit negative progression on each bet until there is a big win. Takes a big bankroll to play this way but if a few numbers repeat you will walk away with several thousand dollars.

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks Curious!

I went with Boston for my contest pick, as I had to keep it under -160.

Root me in!

[curious]

Did any of you guys take the White Sox at +120?

[curious]

Baltimore

I hope you guys tailed me on Baltimore RRL +350

[SRBI]

Where do you post your plays, Curious?

[JerseyShop101]

Looking good Curious!

I won the contest. 10 in a row! Thank you Boston! Maybe I should stick to one play a day. Or do those open parlays now, lol. Its $1500 freeplay/8x rollover, so I still have a lot of work to do and will still need some luck.

[No coincidences]

I think there's a good chance you get a bounceback day on Sunday.

Detroit +105
White Sox +110
San Diego +110
Oakland +102
St. Louis +101
Toronto +120

All have good chances of hitting IMHO. Bolded are home teams.

4-2, with a one-run loss by Toronto.

Even if you want to take the White Sox off, it's still a nice profit.

[curious]

Where do you post your plays, Curious?

The last couple of days I have been posting my plays in this thread.

The 2 losses in a row streak went something like 4-1 today. Although I overANALyzed it and didn't play them all and switched sides on the Reds. I think I'll just play anything that fits the pattern and not look at the individual team records.