Bill's 2010 MLB Picks Thread
Ok, so I decided to post my daily plays. I have two different systems I'm running...
Series Chase
The first system is a chase system on every single series using money lines. Based on certain criteria, I'll chase one team to win a game during their series. The usual chase rules apply. Dogs use a 1-2-4 unit risk progression while favs depend on the money risked up to that point. I tracked it back through 6/1 and for all series started in the month of June, it managed a +7.9% ROI (+39.38 units on 500.56 units wagered). I do have a value assignment for each play and I continue to monitor that and see if I can perhaps tighten it up a bit. Some breakdowns:
A Bets - 69-57, +9.18 units on 163.12 units wagered (+5.6% ROI)
B Bets - 23-34, -21.00 units on 162.26 units wagered (-12.9% ROI)
C Bets - 20-13, +51.20 units on 175.18 units wagered (+29.2% ROI)
League Games - 51-41, +29.65 units on 211.36 units wagered (+14.0% ROI)
InterLg Games - 61-62, +9.73 units on 289.2 units wagered (+3.4% ROI)
Away Teams - 53-61, +21.13 units on 228.21 units wagered (+9.3% ROI)
Home Teams - 59-42, +18.25 units on 272.35 units wagered (+6.7% ROI)
0.000 < Value <= 0.025 - 28-24, +42.03 units on 118.98 units wagered (+35.3% ROI)
0.025 < Value <= 0.050 - 34-36, -4.36 units on 162.37 units wagered (-2.7% ROI)
0.050 < Value <= 0.075 - 14-25, -15.05 units on 105.4 units wagered (-14.3% ROI)
0.075 < Value <= 0.100 - 13-2, +15.7 units on 23.15 units wagered (+67.8% ROI)
0.100 < Value <= 9.999 - 23-16, +1.06 units on 90.66 units wagered (+1.2% ROI)
Fade the Public
This one tracks line movements and betting percentages. Once again, each game has a value assignment based on those factors. This isn't a chase or anything, just straight up plays. I've only been tracking this one since 6/27. Since then, it's managed a 22-12 record for +15.56 units on 35.06 units wagered for a +44.4% ROI. Since this one's a little late to the party, I don't have a nice thorough breakdown for it. Perhaps at the end of July...
Anyways, that's a quick summary of the two I'll be tracking in here. We'll see where they go...
Series Chase
The first system is a chase system on every single series using money lines. Based on certain criteria, I'll chase one team to win a game during their series. The usual chase rules apply. Dogs use a 1-2-4 unit risk progression while favs depend on the money risked up to that point. I tracked it back through 6/1 and for all series started in the month of June, it managed a +7.9% ROI (+39.38 units on 500.56 units wagered). I do have a value assignment for each play and I continue to monitor that and see if I can perhaps tighten it up a bit. Some breakdowns:
A Bets - 69-57, +9.18 units on 163.12 units wagered (+5.6% ROI)
B Bets - 23-34, -21.00 units on 162.26 units wagered (-12.9% ROI)
C Bets - 20-13, +51.20 units on 175.18 units wagered (+29.2% ROI)
League Games - 51-41, +29.65 units on 211.36 units wagered (+14.0% ROI)
InterLg Games - 61-62, +9.73 units on 289.2 units wagered (+3.4% ROI)
Away Teams - 53-61, +21.13 units on 228.21 units wagered (+9.3% ROI)
Home Teams - 59-42, +18.25 units on 272.35 units wagered (+6.7% ROI)
0.000 < Value <= 0.025 - 28-24, +42.03 units on 118.98 units wagered (+35.3% ROI)
0.025 < Value <= 0.050 - 34-36, -4.36 units on 162.37 units wagered (-2.7% ROI)
0.050 < Value <= 0.075 - 14-25, -15.05 units on 105.4 units wagered (-14.3% ROI)
0.075 < Value <= 0.100 - 13-2, +15.7 units on 23.15 units wagered (+67.8% ROI)
0.100 < Value <= 9.999 - 23-16, +1.06 units on 90.66 units wagered (+1.2% ROI)
Fade the Public
This one tracks line movements and betting percentages. Once again, each game has a value assignment based on those factors. This isn't a chase or anything, just straight up plays. I've only been tracking this one since 6/27. Since then, it's managed a 22-12 record for +15.56 units on 35.06 units wagered for a +44.4% ROI. Since this one's a little late to the party, I don't have a nice thorough breakdown for it. Perhaps at the end of July...
Anyways, that's a quick summary of the two I'll be tracking in here. We'll see where they go...
