Fishy line?

Nomadik · 06-30-10, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

So the Brewers were -210 or whatever today against Houston (big number -- not sure what it closed at), and they took care of business.

So on Wednesday, they're only -161? Bush has been much better lately, and road Wandy is road Wandy. Milwaukee's won seven of nine overall and six of eight at home. The Astros are 30-48 overall and 14-24 on the road.

It's simply the books trying to "square" the game. They want the public/squares to do exactly what you're doing (not to insinuate by any means that you're a square NoCo), doubt the obvious play, which would be the much better Brew Crew. This line has to be "squared" up or everyone would be jamming the correct play, the Brew Crew, and the books would get hammered on this game.

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by Nomadik

It's simply the books trying to "square" the game. They want the public/squares to do exactly what you're doing (not to insinuate by any means that you're a square NoCo), doubt the obvious play, which would be the much better Brew Crew. This line has to be "squared" up or everyone would be jamming the correct play, the Brew Crew, and the books would get hammered on this game.

Wouldn't the public be more inclined to play Houston at +190 or above vs. +151, though? Who in the hell would back road Wandy at that crappy number?

Nomadik · 06-30-10, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Wouldn't the public be more inclined to play Houston at +190 or above vs. +151, though? Who in the hell would back road Wandy at that crappy number?

You act like the "public" is always going after the long shot 190+ dawgs...not the case. The "public" that actually puts decent coin on games, and also has a some sort of capping IQ, will look at the +151 as more appealing because it's still a good value in their eyes and it "looks winnable"

suicidekings · 06-30-10, 01:41 AM

The difference in the number is just the product of a smaller divide between the two SPs tomorrow than today. Given the two pitchers involved, I would be much more tempted by the Brewers TT Over than the ML.

2daBank · 06-30-10, 01:44 AM

so much 1 sided early action one of the favs gotta win and if im thinking i gotta take 1 and only one i think mil is it.......

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 01:45 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The difference in the number is just the product of a smaller divide between the two SPs tomorrow than today. Given the two pitchers involved, I would be much more tempted by the Brewers TT Over than the ML.

I somewhat agree with that sk -- there's definitely a closer gap between Bush/Wandy vs. Gallardo/Myers -- but the oddsmakers totally disrespected Myers today. He's actually had a very steady season.

They proved to be right in the end, though. Just didn't make sense beforehand that a seasoned vet like Myers with a 3.20 ERA would be a +200-plus dog against a sub-.500 team anywhere. I think HOU should've been about +175 today, and about +165-170 tomorrow.

2daBank · 06-30-10, 01:46 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I somewhat agree with that sk -- there's definitely a closer gap between Bush/Wandy vs. Gallardo/Myers -- but the oddsmakers totally disrespected Myers today. He's actually had a very steady season.

They proved to be right in the end, though. Just didn't make sense beforehand that a seasoned vet like Myers with a 3.20 ERA would be a +200-plus dog against a sub-.500 team anywhere. I think HOU should've been about +175 today, and about +165-170 tomorrow.

yea but you not counting the fact assholes like me were betting mil today regardless of the number

2daBank · 06-30-10, 01:49 AM

mil like the opposite of stl in the fact game 3 of the series is the only day they have a winning record (pretty good actually 15-7) really bad in the 1st 2 games, Stl kills it game 1 (19-7 or something crazy) then just below .500 rest of the games (but 0-7 trying for 3 game sweep like 2marro)

Patrickz0rs · 06-30-10, 01:52 AM

You are making it seem like this game will have "the fix" on it. First off this isn't the NBA and second your name is not THA_DIESAL.

suicidekings · 06-30-10, 02:03 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I somewhat agree with that sk -- there's definitely a closer gap between Bush/Wandy vs. Gallardo/Myers -- but the oddsmakers totally disrespected Myers today. He's actually had a very steady season.

True to an extent, however Houston doesn't score on the road. They've averaged about 3 runs scored per game in Myers' 7 road starts this season and if you throw out the one that they scored 6, the average falls to 2.33 rpg. That combined with facing Gallardo, who's only bad number this year are his 3-3 home W-L record (WHIP 1.13, BAA .218) means the Brewers deserved to be much larger faves tonight.

If Gallardo had a reliable bullpen behind him he could have 12 wins right now instead of 8. In 16 starts, he has 2 CG shutouts, and in the other 14 his bullpen has surrendered 36 runs (including 23 in his last 6, or 3.8 rpg, not counting the CGs).

stakagrp · 06-30-10, 04:02 AM

Mil should get it done tomorrow.

LT Profits · 06-30-10, 05:40 AM

It's because Gallardo was pitching on Tuesday, one of the best pitchers in the league that nobody knows about.

thebestthereis · 06-30-10, 05:42 AM

st.louis looks more fishy to me, -135 at home vs enright and one of the worst road teams in baseball? suppan is no ace but a serviceable veteran pitcher. line should be where milwaukee's line is but it isn't. no idea how a person could pull arizona out of their ass today getting +125, makes no sense.

2daBank · 06-30-10, 06:19 AM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

st.louis looks more fishy to me, -135 at home vs enright and one of the worst road teams in baseball? suppan is no ace but a serviceable veteran pitcher. line should be where milwaukee's line is but it isn't. no idea how a person could pull arizona out of their ass today getting +125, makes no sense.

STL is 0-7 this year when going for the 3 game sweep, but i agree cant back zona for that cheap a price (which is probably why its so low) that is the fishy line for sure.....

thebestthereis · 06-30-10, 06:41 AM

they are not 0-7 going for a sweep, they swept the braves 4 games this year, but that is it. still i don't see how anybody setting this line factors that into this game. if they are to me it is stupid as teams get swept all the time. for me to take arizona i would need +150 or more.

Bostongambler · 06-30-10, 06:43 AM

Milw. should get it done today as well I agree, but as you know the line rides with the pitchers. gl

2daBank · 06-30-10, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

they are not 0-7 going for a sweep, they swept the braves 4 games this year, but that is it. still i don't see how anybody setting this line factors that into this game. if they are to me it is stupid as teams get swept all the time. for me to take arizona i would need +150 or more.

0-7 going for 3 game sweep, they have a 4 game and a 2...0-9 on 3 game sweep attempts going back to last year....sure teams get swept all the time just not by stl, couldnt tell you if it got anything to do with the line but something obviously a little off with it....

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

You are making it seem like this game will have "the fix" on it. First off this isn't the NBA and second your name is not THA_DIESAL.

Baseball isn't fixed.

I'm just wondering if Vegas knows something we don't with this line -- not implying the game is "fixed."

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 10:06 AM

Now it's been pounded down to -152 with the public all over Milwaukee.

Pass for me. Something doesn't add up here; someone knows something I don't.

lakerboy · 06-30-10, 10:10 AM

Just take the astros. They will get it done versus bush.

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Just take the astros. They will get it done versus bush.

Why, though?

Wandy is awful on the road -- always has been. Brewers have been playing well and their bats have awakened. And Bush has been much better lately (2-0, 3.26 ERA in his last three starts). Plus, Bush gave up 0 ER earlier in the season at home vs. HOU.

lakerboy · 06-30-10, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Why, though?

Wandy is awful on the road -- always has been. Brewers have been playing well and their bats have awakened. And Bush has been much better lately (2-0, 3.26 ERA in his last three starts). Plus, Bush gave up 0 ER earlier in the season at home vs. HOU.

No coin i dont have reasons pal as you know. What happened in previous times means little this afternoon. Its baseball- wandy might pitch a perfect game today. The line is dropping and im on the astros today.

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

No coin i dont have reasons pal as you know. What happened in previous times means little this afternoon. Its baseball- wandy might pitch a perfect game today. The line is dropping and im on the astros today.

There are only a few stats I see favoring Houston:

They are a bizarre 8-0 in their last 8 Wednesday games.
Bush's home numbers and day numbers aren't very good.

Other than that, this one has me baffled. Bush is 4-1 and has given up just 10 ER in his last five starts. Wandy's 1-6 on the road, as per usual (5-9 last year, 3-10 in '07).

Does MIL have a horrible record vs. lefties? I know Fielder doesn't hit Wandy well, but Braun and Hart pummel him. He is 1-4 with an 8.54 ERA in his last five starts at Miller Park.

CappinTerp · 06-30-10, 10:39 AM

Houston is the play.!!

revnecro1273 · 06-30-10, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

So the Brewers were -210 or whatever today against Houston (big number -- not sure what it closed at), and they took care of business.

So on Wednesday, they're only -161? Bush has been much better lately, and road Wandy is road Wandy. Milwaukee's won seven of nine overall and six of eight at home. The Astros are 30-48 overall and 14-24 on the road.

because it was milwaukee's ace pitching yesterday and was against houston's best pitcher...that line seemed a bit high to me...this one, imo, is about right...books don't like bush and it is the brewers who suck...not as much as the astros, but still are pretty crap...no way bush would be -200 against anyone

revnecro1273 · 06-30-10, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I somewhat agree with that sk -- there's definitely a closer gap between Bush/Wandy vs. Gallardo/Myers -- but the oddsmakers totally disrespected Myers today. He's actually had a very steady season.

They proved to be right in the end, though. Just didn't make sense beforehand that a seasoned vet like Myers with a 3.20 ERA would be a +200-plus dog against a sub-.500 team anywhere. I think HOU should've been about +175 today, and about +165-170 tomorrow.

i agree

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

Houston is the play.!!

Reasoning?

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 06-30-10, 11:18 AM

how about the over w/ the pitchers track record 9 and the public are on the under 9,maybe houston lack of offense or the fact that bush shut them out in the start of the season gl

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 01:12 PM

I stayed away, though I was really close to playing Milwaukee.

No coincidences · 06-30-10, 01:42 PM

Something tells me this was a set up and I'm not going to be happy about missing this MIL play.

2daBank · 06-30-10, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Something tells me this was a set up and I'm not going to be happy about missing this MIL play.

i know im glad you missed it you unlucky bastard.....