Do you think -1½ RL is a sucker bet?

[Sawyer]

I don't think so.

I know home teams (who win) win by 2+ runs only 67% of the time since home team (if leading) has only 8 innings of offense while the visiting team will always have 9 innings of offense. However, odds change in your favor dramatically. -200 Home Chalk becomes -105 or -110. if you pick your spots right, -1½ is a great way to reduce the juice. Even sometimes, you can have Plus Juice bet!

In baseball, score margin is higher then hockey & soccer. In soccer & hockey, every goal gives you 1 points(score). However, in baseball you can score 2, 3 or 4 runs in one go.

[apwmel]

It's no a sucker bet. But some suckers do make the bet.

[HoulihansTX]

Games are decided by 3 or more runs 50%+ of the time.

So no, but it should alwyas be a smaller bet than if you were to bet the ML.

You should search JerseyShop. He has a thread compiling the avg amount of runs games are decided by.

[thebestthereis]

i only bet the +1.5 run line when i bet the run line

[Dexter]

try and not go too heavy on the home team with a run line...you pretty much have 8 innings of offense. road team has infinity.

im guilty sometimes...

[landers781]

i dont play RL often, seems as though i hardly cover it
maybe i will give it another shot though

[Mybologne]

I play RL only when it is heavy chalk

[eatdust11]

No I don't think so.. it can provide good opportunities.

[jhack704]

i only bet the +1.5 run line when i bet the run line

thats dumb. you know only 12% of games have the fav winning by 1. why dont you just bet the underdog straightup then and make more money

[Foggy]

I always bet the RL. -1.5, occasionally -2.5 more often than straight bets. I rarely lay chalk. I just bet games that I think will be high scoring, so there's less chance of a 1 run game. Also more often on Road teams so if it's tied in the 9th the game doesn't end when the home team scores 1.

[Wreckloose]

I usually bet the runline.

[thebestthereis]

thats dumb. you know only 12% of games have the fav winning by 1. why dont you just bet the underdog straightup then and make more money

it works for me and i rarely do it. it is dumb to pick the losing side of any bet too.

[Whippit]

check Ganchrow's old posts

[boeing power]

i only bet the +1.5 run line when i bet the run line

we found the sucker bet, +1.5 is the worst bet in sports

[str]

Really do not like to make a play that, at the end of the game, my team is playing for a different situation than I am. They trade the run for the out,they win , I lose. Tough pill to swallow.

[Vegas Revolver]

i think the -1.5 RL hits more often than the +1.5 RL statistically if you look at it

[Sunde91]

Depends, but not usually.

I don't understand how ANYONE lays -150 plus on +1.5 RLs though...just stupid.

[Sunde91]

we found the sucker bet, +1.5 is the worst bet in sports

Wouldn't touch it if it was anything more than -120.

Some do have value, though.

[kmoney]

yeah +1.5 always looks like crap. does anybody do this?

[tfarrell12]

I play +1.5 on live betting sometimes. I got dodgers +1.5, when the score was 1-1, for +137 tonight.

[sharpmoney]

There is some value in the -1.5 runline so I don't think its a sucker bet. Pick your spots though. I don't play it myself. Only make one or two bets per day and a run line play hardly ever makes the list. I'd rather play the -1.5 with a road team then a home team. It just gets you that extra at bat when you have the road team and the home teams gets only eight innings of offense assuming they were ahead.

[joe blow]

I bet the -1.5 run line and i bet the run line.That's the way to bet on favs laying more than -140

[THE PROFIT]

-1.5 is a good bet, +1.5 is just stupid. IMO

[PAULYPOKER]

Sawyer you sly dog you, that is a trick question, there is no real right answer.....

[jose21_us]

I will do it when the juice is really high...

[MB]

I don't think it's a sucker bet exactly, but who here has had long term success betting -1.5?

[Sunde91]

Exhibit A: STL just gave up a run in the bottom of the 9th and won 4-3 as a -230 fav on a -115 RL.

[Wreckloose]

[paco]

I play RL only when it is heavy chalk

This.

[Sawyer]

The funny thing is,

Everytime I pick -1½ RL, they win by 1 run, LoL!

PS: Of course, in fact, it doesn't happen everytime but since effect is very dramatic (they win by 1 run and you lose your bet) you feel like it happens very often. If home chalk is -200, you need to hit %67+ on the long run in order to make profit. When odds are +100, even %51 will make you money. You'll lose many bets if you pick -1½ RL, but your overall profit may be better. I like -1 RL, in case of a win by 1 run, your bet is voided.

[coanwe]

Love the avatar Wreckloose!