KC Royals +170

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  • lyon804
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-02-09
    • 6526

    #1
    KC Royals +170
    Yeah right?? Just woke up from a long nite from the NBA Finals so I missed some value here. It opened at -200 Atl. Come on, let's face it.. KC is not world beaters and Atlanta is good at home. However, how can you pay -185 for Atlanta with Lowe on the mound. He is prone to get shit on. Lowe, is not set up to pitch in the hot and humid climate of the South.

    Been a Braves fan all my life and I can tell you this price is too high considering circumstances.

    1) Bannister pitching for Royals.. He is not great but the Braves historically struggle against pitchers they never have faces.

    2) Lowe is liable to get shit on by any line up at any time including KC. Only thing that has saved his ass is the Braves run production the last 2 years when he pitches.

    3) Let Down!!!!! Braves historically play down to there competetion. Last series they went to Minny and took 2 of 3 from a very good team. Braves just wrapped up winning 2 of 3 from arguably the best team in baseball (Tampa Bay) at home. This one has all the making of a let down.

    4) +170 has an implied probability of KC winning at 37%.... You do the Math. This is a coin flip game imo.



    Good Luck with your wagers.
  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #2
    Might be worth a shot, but Bannister's typically not very good on the road. Love fading Lowe, though.
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #3
      Bannister on the road the last three years:

      4-8, 8.43 ERA in '08
      3-7, 5.22 ERA in '09
      1-3, 8.22 ERA this year

      Even worse than I thought.
      Comment
      • lyon804
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 11-02-09
        • 6526

        #4
        Originally posted by No coincidences
        Might be worth a shot, but Bannister's typically not very good on the road. Love fading Lowe, though.


        It's all about the #'s & odds... Teams and stats are useless.. Any team and any stat is profitable at some number.. It's your job to figure that out to win at gambling.


        KC at 37% implied probability is a winning bet and has nothing to do with tonites outcome. I gave you what is called a +EV wager because the real odds and probabilies of KC winning tonite is higher than 37%
        Comment
        • lyon804
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-02-09
          • 6526

          #5
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          Bannister on the road the last three years:

          4-8, 8.43 ERA in '08
          3-7, 5.22 ERA in '09
          1-3, 8.22 ERA this year

          Even worse than I thought.


          Doesn't matter.. Forget the stats. Lowe is just as likely to get shelled as Bannister tonite. This is anybodies game tonite.


          Lowe could give up 3 or 4 runs in the top of the 1st and it could change the entire complexion of the game.
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            Originally posted by lyon804
            It's all about the #'s & odds... Teams and stats are useless.. Any team and any stat is profitable at some number.. It's your job to figure that out to win at gambling.


            KC at 37% implied probability is a winning bet and has nothing to do with tonites outcome. I gave you what is called a +EV wager because the real odds and probabilies of KC winning tonite is higher than 37%
            Yeah, I know.

            I've just seen Bannister implode too many times away from home to feel very confident that this has true value. Hell, the guy's given up 26 hits in his last 12 road IP. Yuck.
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Royals offense is underrated.

              Over might be the play here, but I quit totals.
              Comment
              • HoulihansTX
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 02-12-09
                • 30566

                #8
                Looks like an OVER
                Comment
                • No coincidences
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 76300

                  #9
                  BTW, lyon, where are you seeing a -200 opening number?

                  Pinny opened at -173, and it's at -181 now.
                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #10
                    Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                    Looks like an OVER
                    Of course it does -- which means it'll be 3-2.

                    Comment
                    • HoulihansTX
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 02-12-09
                      • 30566

                      #11
                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                      Of course it does -- which means it'll be 3-2.
                      Yep.
                      Comment
                      • redore33
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 02-09-09
                        • 198

                        #12
                        Bannister's been good to me in the past & this is a good price. But, Braves best home tm in the NL.
                        Comment
                        • lakerboy
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-02-09
                          • 94379

                          #13
                          Is anyone following this play?
                          Comment
                          • No coincidences
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 76300

                            #14
                            Originally posted by lakerboy
                            Is anyone following this play?
                            I'm not. Again, I love fading Lowe, but Bannister just plain stinks away from home and, well, Atlanta's arguably the best home team in baseball.
                            Comment
                            • dolphan34
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 04-09-10
                              • 423

                              #15
                              I'm on the Royals, it is at +190 now which is ridiculous for Lowe.
                              Comment
                              • sweethook
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-21-07
                                • 12667

                                #16
                                nice ,but atlanta bats are on now, so i play then and or overs GL
                                Comment
                                • emoney
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-12-09
                                  • 1481

                                  #17
                                  I was on the wrong side of this one.
                                  Comment
                                  • dolphan34
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 04-09-10
                                    • 423

                                    #18
                                    Meh, I knew it had a good chance to lose, but +190 is too good to pass on. I'll be on them tomorrow with Greinke for +money.
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #19
                                      Saturday might be the day to take KC as a dog -- Greinke's +120 vs. Melden.
                                      Comment
                                      • cb8720
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 02-10-10
                                        • 357

                                        #20
                                        Saturday = KC. Sunday = Atlanta.

                                        I think Greinke will start stringing a bunch of wins together and Kawakami will break through, finally.
                                        Comment
                                        • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-17-09
                                          • 11939

                                          #21
                                          Looked like trap at +170.
                                          Comment
                                          • dynamite140
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-05-08
                                            • 4958

                                            #22
                                            Royals are a horrible team.
                                            Comment
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