Tim Lincecum - The Freak?

[Dexter]

when lincecum came up he was referred to as the "Freak" because of his small frame and ability to throw pure gas. i used to watch most of lincecums starts and he would regularly sit 92-95 and top out at 98 when needed. this year i had yet to watch him pitch but noticed online that his velocity was way down. some lincecum backers will claim hes doing this to hold up in the long run etc etc. i would buy that if he still used that 98mph heater when needed. in a big spot. from what i saw today, lincecum is no longer a power pitcher. his fastball was sitting 90-92 all day and topped out at 94 a handful of times early in the game. he tired as the game went on where as in the past he would get stronger. we are now in june so there is no excuse that the fastball will come with warmer weather.

is his small frame catching up to him? i think so.

he will always be a great pitcher because he hides the ball well with his deceptive motion. he also possesses arguably the best offspeed pitch in the game with a circle change/split. he still has a very good 12/6 hammer curve.

but the fastball is gone. is he hiding an injury? i dont even think so. his fastball has been on a steady decline since he came into the bigs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5705&position=P

it was very noticeable today. he could not miss bats with his fastball at all, and relied waaaaay too much on that change.

hes in a funk right now more because of his control issues. once he gets right, he will go back to being a cy young candidate, because of that changeup. but im afraid to say that his days as a pure power pitcher appear over - unless hes hiding an injury.

[gryfyn1]

Im not sure what you mean by "power pitcher" he still features a + fastball and is striking out more batters/nine than any year previously -

and his controll isnt that far off - he's averaging 3.4 BB/9 compare to a career 3.3 BB/9 - seems more likely his drop to 2.7 BB/9 was more a blip.

And again the stats show he getting More swings and misses this year than any other. Is he in a bit of down swing now - sure it happens- it happened to start last year -

[Dexter]

Im not sure what you mean by "power pitcher" he still features a + fastball and is striking out more batters/nine than any year previously -

and his controll isnt that far off - he's averaging 3.4 BB/9 compare to a career 3.3 BB/9 - seems more likely his drop to 2.7 BB/9 was more a blip.

And again the stats show he getting More swings and misses this year than any other. Is he in a bit of down swing now - sure it happens- it happened to start last year -

i dont see a + fastball anymore.

im just saying his control is way off right now - before these last 3 starts, he was actually showing the best control of his career.

my point is i dont see him having his fastball as a *missing bats* type of pitch anymore.

the swings and misses are all from the changeup - batters are swinging and missing at that pitch at an unheard of rate. i just dont see that lasting when he cant dial up the fastball like he used to.

[Cheme82]

I agree, his 98 MPH days are over. He doesn't need it to be dominating though, 92 is enough as long as he can go down to the low to mid 80's on the change-up and use that 12-6 curveball effectively.

The key will be his control, since he's lost about 6 MPH off his fastball he can't afford to miss his spots, he doesn't have that luxury anymore. But in the great ones a loss in physical skills usually is accompanied by gains in intangibles like patience and insight so we'll find out if he will be one of the great ones in the next few years.

[ebbearsfb1]

hes off the hgh lol

[Willie Bee]

I didn't get to see him today Dexter, and have only seen him twice this year (against Oswalt each time). The first time I did see him pitch was also against Oswalt, think it was his third or fourth MLB start. Know he faced the Astros a couple of times early in his first season.

Certainly different pitchers, but Lincecum and Oswalt have reminded me of each other from the start. They share that 'small' label compared to other pitchers and pro athletes in general these days. Both could generate good power, yet both had other good pitches. Oswalt's velocity has dropped as well, but it's really been the fact he could go from the low-to-mid 90s down to the low-70s. Lincecum has a much better curve than Oswalt, not even a contest there really.

Another thing they share: Lincecum is the 'dumb stoner' and Oswalt is the 'dumb Mississippi hick.' Both are way smarter and, in that, both have advantages over the hitters they are facing.

[Dexter]

I agree, his 98 MPH days are over. He doesn't need it to be dominating though, 92 is enough as long as he can go down to the low to mid 80's on the change-up and use that 12-6 curveball effectively.

The key will be his control, since he's lost about 6 MPH off his fastball he can't afford to miss his spots, he doesn't have that luxury anymore. But in the great ones a loss in physical skills usually is accompanied by gains in intangibles like patience and insight so we'll find out if he will be one of the great ones in the next few years.

right - earlier in the year when he displayed pinpoint control it didnt matter much. now that his control his reverting back to his norm, whats he going to do to get thru these rough games? that change is sick - but there were many times today where a 96mph heater was needed. he just cant get there anymore.

[Dexter]

I didn't get to see him today Dexter, and have only seen him twice this year (against Oswalt each time). The first time I did see him pitch was also against Oswalt, think it was his third or fourth MLB start. Know he faced the Astros a couple of times early in his first season.

Certainly different pitchers, but Lincecum and Oswalt have reminded me of each other from the start. They share that 'small' label compared to other pitchers and pro athletes in general these days. Both could generate good power, yet both had other good pitches. Oswalt's velocity has dropped as well, but it's really been the fact he could go from the low-to-mid 90s down to the low-70s. Lincecum has a much better curve than Oswalt, not even a contest there really.

Another thing they share: Lincecum is the 'dumb stoner' and Oswalt is the 'dumb Mississippi hick.' Both are way smarter and, in that, both have advantages over the hitters they are facing.

oswalt has held up remarkably for his size. his fastball this year is about the same that it was in 2006.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=571&position=P

when i watch oswalt, halliday, cc etc.....these guys may sit 92-93, but when they need that 95+ they rare back and find it.

what ive heard from people who watched lincecum this year he hasnt done that, and he certainly didnt do that today when i finally got a chance to watch a full game.