---My official MLB thread - Strong picks and HOT chicks---

WiseGrumpy · 07-18-10, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by rickbo528

Hey WG, isn't 7-18 today? Just want to make sure these are Sunday's picks.

Corrected. thnx.

HighVoltage · 07-18-10, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by WiseGrumpy

READ THIS

I don't know why people gave you such stupid comments and espcially from people that have followed me for so long. Anyway, before the all star break I had "strong bets" and "monster bets" they were rare and very strong. After the break I have changed them to Grumpy and Super Grumpy bets. Why so many? Felt there are a lot of strong bets, and the fact is they are doing very well, today was a VERY good day if you bet my plays right.

For those that give those dumb ass comments, stay away, this guy asked a question, if you give him flase info, stay away.

Thnx for the positive comments because it was a good day!

* One more thing, Grumpy bets and Super Grumpy bets are classified according to MY bet size, you guys can do whatever you want. Funny when I see this moron redore33 talking smack when 3 Super bets hit. If I see 15 strong bets, I will bet 15, you guys can feel free to fade, the amount of money people have made thnx to this thread is huge, I really rather not have any comments at all if I see this negative BS.

I am not hating and i am not making false statements. I am just reporting the record from yesterday. According to post #2382, grumpy plays are between 10-20 units, while super grumpy plays are 20 units and up with most being 30 units. For our reporting we will assume the middle for grumpy bets, 15 units, and 30 units for super grumpy bets. Here is the record from yesterday:

Det(gm#1)/STL parlay, 30 units, loss (-30.00)
Oakland -125, 30 units, win (+30.00)
LA Angels -188, 30 units, win (+30.00)
Texas -162, 15 units, loss (-24.30)
Minnesota -162, 15 units, win (+15.00)
Det(gm#2) -125 , 15 units, loss (-18.75)

Total the actual units won/lost in paranthesis and you get +1.95 units for the day. That is just over 1/7 of a grumpy wager. Not what I would call a VERY good day as you described above. But it was still a positive day.

SolidDala · 07-18-10, 10:24 AM

I do not think Grumpy bet the same amount on a parlay as for the later big bets for the simple reason it has a lower expected hitting range, just my thoughts though... 3 lines +135 -120 -175 .. say all 3 is BIG bets.. would you bet all three for same amount, answer is no and this is because the -120 wins more then the +135 line... as for the -175 line, this I wouldn't touch and its simple cause I do not know if this bets hits 65%, have to slim experience to judge this and should therefor not wager on it

shakinakin · 07-18-10, 10:26 AM

Have been following this thread for a while and this post is in no way intended to cause upset. I have found the thread entertaining and enjoyable to follow but think I am confused as to maybe how the plays should be bet. I had assumed that for a super grumpy 30 units was to be bet on the pick as opposed to more units to achieve a profit of 30 units for a -$ line, should the play win. Is this incorrect?

If we are using the units in terms of what we bet on the line not what we expect to win as described above...
Winners yesterday:
Oakland A's: 30 units bet @ -125 = 24 units profit
LA Angels : 30 units bet @ -188 = 16 units profit
Minnesota : 15 units bet @ -162 = 9.25 units profit
Total:49.25
Losers yesterday:
Detroit/STL Parlay - 30 units lost
Detroit (game2) - 15 units lost
Texas - 15 units lost
Total loss 60 units.
Result for the day: -10.75 units lost

Have I made a mistake in the method by which we bet or the calculations? If so please correct me. Obviously there will always be good and bad days and WiseGrumpy seems to be successful at what he does. However it is not very easy to tell exactly which kind of a day we've had sometimes. Have you ever considered keeping an accurate record with units so we can see the results of individual days by +ve or -ve units?

SolidDala · 07-18-10, 10:27 AM

GoggsViggs · 07-18-10, 10:40 AM

WG: thanks for the picks bro! giving you some Ursula Mayes (we gotta bring her back, she's smokin!) to tag team with Kristin for a sweep day. BOL to you and all the tailers.

SolidDala · 07-18-10, 10:42 AM

Shakinakin, my suggestion is not to bet same amount on a +168 line as a -177 line.. to use common sense as a factor: If Angels have a greater chance of winning then the parlay shouldn't that bet be greater as well?

If one looking for maximum growth, one would bet to-win on all bets meaning if target is 3% then on a -150 line bet is 4,5% and for a +150 line bet would be 2%

and its also very important that a 30u play ain't 30% of ROLL - this is -EV and should not be done...

dynamitappletini · 07-18-10, 11:01 AM

Nice going WG! Too bad I missed your later plays yesterday! Nice hits on the Super Grumps!

Let's get it again!

shakinakin · 07-18-10, 11:46 AM

Thanks for the response SD. So if the price is shorter I should generally adjust my bet size to be more bigger and if the price is longer my bet should be smaller?
I understand that 30u should not be 30% of bankroll and that would be awful money management. I thought that the picks were to give us an idea of how much to stake on each bet with strong picks having the most perceived value regardless of their price, because in the long run value is the most important thing is it not? Thanks for your help

TBone101 · 07-18-10, 11:53 AM

Lets do it again Kristan Kreuk!

K SIXONE · 07-18-10, 12:15 PM

I LOVE Kristin Kreuk. That is all.

SolidDala · 07-18-10, 12:28 PM

I believe that bet to win instead of risk is a better approach Shak, their are some that bet same amount for all bets, favs as for dogs, have done this myself for a while, but missed a lot of winnings betting less on favs... Of coarse best approach is to take one that fits best for yourself

WiseGrumpy · 07-18-10, 01:14 PM

I pray that my team (Astros) won't be the ones that will destroy a sweep.

will21784 · 07-18-10, 01:31 PM

hey grumpy, what do you think of a two-team parlay of Mets and Phillies at +185?

shakinakin · 07-18-10, 01:59 PM

Thanks alot for the insight SD really helped me out

WiseGrumpy · 07-18-10, 02:40 PM

Just want to say my team SUX! (Astros) think I should take a LONG ASS break!
GL everyone.

I.L.S · 07-18-10, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by WiseGrumpy

Just want to say my team SUX! (Astros) think I should take a LONG ASS break!
GL everyone.

I went with Pirates ma man , with a nice odd of 2.1

dynamitappletini · 07-18-10, 03:10 PM

Don't beat yourself up Grump, there are some days you just can't understand... Hang in there!

GoggsViggs · 07-18-10, 07:53 PM

WG: let's bring Ursula back. she's Weapon X

Full Time Hobo · 07-18-10, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by redore33

And you call me a "moron" you phony bastard. Giving up 9 to the WORST run producing tm in MLB, and you make one of the worst rd tms a super monster, or whatever you're calling them this wk. We know it'll be some other grade school banner next wk. How're the Reds doing BTW? Go on break now and come back w/foots, and some new BS for the masses.

Hes on a cold streak but has already made plenty of money for everyone who has been tailing for awhile.
Everyone hates losing money but dont come in here bitching about shit no one can control.

Grump take a breather.
Come back stronger next time. You're very capable

WiseGrumpy · 07-19-10, 03:34 AM

First of all thnx to those with the normal comments, appriciate it a lot. Second Ursula is perfect.
This thread has never dropped so many pages since it started. Yes I am on a cold streak but I have never expected that.

I will keep doing my thing, you guys do yours. Whoever complains about losing because of someone else is a fool, simple as that. I post my plays, never told anyone to play them.

GL to everyone.

WiseGrumpy · 07-19-10, 04:52 AM

Leans 7.19.2010:

Phillies.
Brewers.
Tigers.
Rays.
Rockies.
Reds.
Cubs.
Jays.
Twins.
Mets.
As.
Mariners.
Giants.

mp5070 · 07-19-10, 07:13 AM

Like the Jays over the Royals!

dvb07 · 07-19-10, 07:56 AM

WG, who is the girl in the theme???
looking forward to your picks

HighVoltage · 07-19-10, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by shakinakin

Have been following this thread for a while and this post is in no way intended to cause upset. I have found the thread entertaining and enjoyable to follow but think I am confused as to maybe how the plays should be bet. I had assumed that for a super grumpy 30 units was to be bet on the pick as opposed to more units to achieve a profit of 30 units for a -$ line, should the play win. Is this incorrect?

If we are using the units in terms of what we bet on the line not what we expect to win as described above...
Winners yesterday:
Oakland A's: 30 units bet @ -125 = 24 units profit
LA Angels : 30 units bet @ -188 = 16 units profit
Minnesota : 15 units bet @ -162 = 9.25 units profit
Total:49.25
Losers yesterday:
Detroit/STL Parlay - 30 units lost
Detroit (game2) - 15 units lost
Texas - 15 units lost
Total loss 60 units.
Result for the day: -10.75 units lost

Have I made a mistake in the method by which we bet or the calculations? If so please correct me. Obviously there will always be good and bad days and WiseGrumpy seems to be successful at what he does. However it is not very easy to tell exactly which kind of a day we've had sometimes. Have you ever considered keeping an accurate record with units so we can see the results of individual days by +ve or -ve units?

Here is a normal comment and a normal question for you, grump. Just in case you didn't see it.

gvo · 07-19-10, 08:22 AM

Good luck today Grumps!

Attached Files

SolidDala · 07-19-10, 08:25 AM

May you have a great comeback day today Grumpy - will be on Tigers as my only play going to have a light week this one, they better not lay the game again lol

dale0630 · 07-19-10, 08:30 AM

Thanks for the plays Grumpy...and good luck to all

GoggsViggs · 07-19-10, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by dvb07

WG, who is the girl in the theme???
looking forward to your picks

DVB: oh yah! that's Ursula Mayes our "weapon x". she's going to bring us back to the hot streak. let's get'em WG!

WiseGrumpy · 07-19-10, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by HighVoltage

Here is a normal comment and a normal question for you, grump. Just in case you didn't see it.

From tomorrow I am going to start a fresh new start, different way of placing showing bets and I will try to put that in as well to make things more clear.

Originally posted by gvo

Good luck today Grumps!

Thnx!

Originally posted by SolidDala

May you have a great comeback day today Grumpy - will be on Tigers as my only play going to have a light week this one, they better not lay the game again lol

I don't see how they lose today, but they got killed by the Indians so who knows.
And the pic as always his beautiful!

Originally posted by dale0630

Thanks for the plays Grumpy...and good luck to all

To you to mate!

Originally posted by GoggsViggs

DVB: oh yah! that's Ursula Mayes our "weapon x". she's going to bring us back to the hot streak. let's get'em WG!

Indeed, Ursuala is our #1 girl, will always be, today she will make a come back and I will try to give one pic of her a day!

JBT · 07-19-10, 09:54 AM

Hey Grumpy, how come you are not keeping the record of your Grumpy and Super Grumpy bets anymore like you used too? Not hating, just wondering as I've been away for a while

Thanks!

fly fisher · 07-19-10, 10:01 AM

good luck grump. You have had some amazing good days, and they will come back. we may not always comment, but there are a lot of us staying with this thread. Thanks for the time you put into this. Fly.

WiseGrumpy · 07-19-10, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by JBT

Hey Grumpy, how come you are not keeping the record of your Grumpy and Super Grumpy bets anymore like you used too? Not hating, just wondering as I've been away for a while

Thanks!

Hey mate ... I tried many different things to help whoever follows, make it fun and interesting, worked for a while, made things hard for a while, from now it will be clean. A pick, a HOT girl and # of units. A record of all plays, and that's it. Whoever wants to follow, will, whoever doesn't hopefully won't bring crap in this thread that from the best thread on the forum became one of the most problumatic.

WiseGrumpy · 07-19-10, 11:45 AM

Here is the new way I will have my plays:

Date: 7.19.2010
Bet type: Parlay
Play:

Tigers Vs Rangers - OVER 9.5 Runs
Rockies ML
A's ML
Giants ML

Units: x1
To win: 10.2 units
Play strength: PURE FUN!

Pic of the play:

WiseGrumpy · 07-19-10, 11:46 AM

When I'll play "normaly" again, I will start a new record of units won and lost as well for those that want it.