The best play I see on the board tonight is the Padres + 140 against the Dodgers. Seems to me that the Dodgers lines are pumped up quite a bit with them just coming off that 9 game winning streak. I think the Padres are a very live dof tonight.
The Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw tonight. Kershaw has pitched fairly well this year, he is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA. In his 8 starts he has managed 45 innings so he is only going for a little over 5 1/2 innings per start, so there is a pretty good chance we will see the Dodgers bullpen in by the 5th or 6th inning tonight.
Now last night, the Padres were able to force the Dodger bullpen into heavy action. The Padres chased Dodger starter Ortiz with just one out in the fourth inning, thus forcing the bullpen to go nearly 6 innings. The Dodger bullpen saw heavy work and gave up 5 earned runs in those 5 2/3 innings. With the exception of Monasteros all 4 Dodger relievers were hit pretty hard. So I think if the Padres can keep this game close once it goes to the Bullpens in teh 5th or 6th they have a better than 50/50 chance.
The Padres on the other hand start Kevin Correia. His numbers are all pretty similar to those of Kershaw but mostly not as good. Correia is 4-3 with a 4.35 ERA. He has 7 starts for 39 innings pitched which puts him right at about the same 5 1/2 innings per outing average.
Correia has had much more control this season though. He has given up 13 walks in those 39 innings pitched which plays out to 1 walk for every 3 innings. Kershaw on the other hand has walked 29 batters in 45 innings. So in just 6 more innings he has walked almsot 2 1/2 times as many batters. That may be a huge factor if the Padres can show some patience tonight and draw a few walks and force Kershaw to throw strikes.
These two lineups seem to be remarkably similar as well. Neither team has a single batter hitting .300+ on the season, yet both lineups are packed full of guys batting just under the .300 mark.
A big factor in this game tonight could be Matt Stairs. Here is a guy who early in his career made a career out of killing me when I bet against his Oakland A's. He has certainly had a rough season thus far, batting just .172 on the season. But he will bat left handed against left handed pitching Kershaw and I still think Stairs is a dangerous power hiter even this late into his career. I think he will have a big game tonight.
Either way here I think we have two very even teams and two very even starting pitchers. The Padres just broke the Dodgers 9 game winning streak last night so I guess the Dodgers will be looking for a little revenge, still I think the +140 is too good a price to pass up.
The key will be the first 3 or 4 innings to see if Correia can pitch well enough to keep the game close. If the Padres can get into the 5th inning tied or even within 1 run, I think they will put up some pretty good numbers on that Dodger bullpen. They have to make Kershaw throw some pitches, work him deep in the count so his pitch count gets up and he gets out of the game by the 5th or so. That shouldnt be that hard if the Padres show patience as Kershaw throws a lot of balls.
So anyway, the play is the padres plus the 140.
Good luck on all plays.
The Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw tonight. Kershaw has pitched fairly well this year, he is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA. In his 8 starts he has managed 45 innings so he is only going for a little over 5 1/2 innings per start, so there is a pretty good chance we will see the Dodgers bullpen in by the 5th or 6th inning tonight.
Now last night, the Padres were able to force the Dodger bullpen into heavy action. The Padres chased Dodger starter Ortiz with just one out in the fourth inning, thus forcing the bullpen to go nearly 6 innings. The Dodger bullpen saw heavy work and gave up 5 earned runs in those 5 2/3 innings. With the exception of Monasteros all 4 Dodger relievers were hit pretty hard. So I think if the Padres can keep this game close once it goes to the Bullpens in teh 5th or 6th they have a better than 50/50 chance.
The Padres on the other hand start Kevin Correia. His numbers are all pretty similar to those of Kershaw but mostly not as good. Correia is 4-3 with a 4.35 ERA. He has 7 starts for 39 innings pitched which puts him right at about the same 5 1/2 innings per outing average.
Correia has had much more control this season though. He has given up 13 walks in those 39 innings pitched which plays out to 1 walk for every 3 innings. Kershaw on the other hand has walked 29 batters in 45 innings. So in just 6 more innings he has walked almsot 2 1/2 times as many batters. That may be a huge factor if the Padres can show some patience tonight and draw a few walks and force Kershaw to throw strikes.
These two lineups seem to be remarkably similar as well. Neither team has a single batter hitting .300+ on the season, yet both lineups are packed full of guys batting just under the .300 mark.
A big factor in this game tonight could be Matt Stairs. Here is a guy who early in his career made a career out of killing me when I bet against his Oakland A's. He has certainly had a rough season thus far, batting just .172 on the season. But he will bat left handed against left handed pitching Kershaw and I still think Stairs is a dangerous power hiter even this late into his career. I think he will have a big game tonight.
Either way here I think we have two very even teams and two very even starting pitchers. The Padres just broke the Dodgers 9 game winning streak last night so I guess the Dodgers will be looking for a little revenge, still I think the +140 is too good a price to pass up.
The key will be the first 3 or 4 innings to see if Correia can pitch well enough to keep the game close. If the Padres can get into the 5th inning tied or even within 1 run, I think they will put up some pretty good numbers on that Dodger bullpen. They have to make Kershaw throw some pitches, work him deep in the count so his pitch count gets up and he gets out of the game by the 5th or so. That shouldnt be that hard if the Padres show patience as Kershaw throws a lot of balls.
So anyway, the play is the padres plus the 140.
Good luck on all plays.
