Is This A Good Enough Trend to Pull The Trigger

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 01:33 PM

TB's offense was somewhat cold against a top-notch Seattle pitching staff that includes 2 of the top 25 pitchers in the MLB right now (Fister and Vargas) and Cliff Lee who has dominated since his return.

Indians are also without Grady Sizemore.

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 01:34 PM

And Carmona is 2-1 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.75 WHIP vs TB...

Good luck

Whippit · 05-17-10, 01:37 PM

them ain't trends brah

save ur $$$

Grind-It-Out · 05-17-10, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by smoovbrotha

I really want to pick Cleveland tonight for 2 reason's tell me if they are strong enough

1. Over the past 3 seasons Cleveland has one the first game of each series against TB

2. One of those first game away wins was with Carmona and he is 2-1 against TB

I LIKE IT WHAT DO YOU THINK?

+Cleveland's offense is luke warm while TB is ice cold scraping by wins

I'm on tampa. I could certainly see a nice argument being made for Cleveland, but that wasn't it.

Trends like this are just annoying. It's like saying "I'm going to take TB because they are 21-4 over the past 25 years when first pitch is at 7:10 and the air temp is 67% and it's the third Monday of the month."

smoovbrotha · 05-17-10, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by Whippit

them ain't trends brah

save ur $$$

do you know the definition of trend #1 is definitely a trend #2 not so much brah

smoovbrotha · 05-17-10, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by Grind-It-Out

"I'm going to take TB because they are 21-4 over the past 25 years when first pitch is at 7:10 and the air temp is 67% and it's the third Monday of the month."

lol touche

but I bet you they'd win that game lol you can't deny that type of trend

floridagolfer · 05-17-10, 01:47 PM

Whatever happened in 2007, '08 and '09 has no bearing on tonight's game whatsoever.

It's a coincidence; nothing more, nothing less.

Grind-It-Out · 05-17-10, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by smoovbrotha

lol touche

but I bet you they'd win that game lol you can't deny that type of trend

Haha. My point is just that you can ALWAYS find a trend backing ANY team you want. So, even when looking at relevant trends, it's important to look at ones favoring both teams.

I'll take the team with the better offense, better starter, and better bullpen.

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 01:50 PM

League-wide trends (i.e., not team-specific) that are profitable EVERY YEAR at a high ROI are the only trends that should form the basis of capping.

smoovbrotha · 05-17-10, 01:52 PM

yes it does have lots of bearing for example I can't remember which team it was but I do think it was houston and Budd Norris he sucks...but history shows that he plays well against STL and what do ya know he won that game...it doesn't have bearing all the time but sometimes its just strong enough to make the bet

smoovbrotha · 05-17-10, 01:54 PM

By no means am I or consider myself a capper just a guy who likes to gamble...But you can't tell me that even a good capper doesn't look at trends to help make a decision

Grind-It-Out · 05-17-10, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by smoovbrotha

By no means am I or consider myself a capper just a guy who likes to gamble...But you can't tell me that even a good capper doesn't look at trends to help make a decision

I don't. And I'd consider myself a fairly good capper. Although it may depend on what you would consider a trend. Maybe what I call stats you call trends... who knows.

smoovbrotha · 05-17-10, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by Grind-It-Out

I don't. And I'd consider myself a fairly good capper. Although it may depend on what you would consider a trend. Maybe what I call stats you call trends... who knows.

For example take this umpire trend (this is made up example)

"Whenever Billy Bob is behind homeplate TB is 6-0."

I feel things like that can't be overlooked and a good lawyer, cop, capper etc. should look at sides of the spectrum

MJT1212 · 05-17-10, 02:04 PM

Cle RL +1.5 is the play.

smoovbrotha · 05-17-10, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by MJT1212

Cle RL +1.5 is the play.

that would be safer

Grind-It-Out · 05-17-10, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by smoovbrotha

For example take this umpire trend (this is made up example)

"Whenever Billy Bob is behind homeplate TB is 6-0."

I feel things like that can't be overlooked and a good lawyer, cop, capper etc. should look at sides of the spectrum

But that by itself isn't very meaningful.

Why are they 6-0 with Billy Bob behind the plate? Does he have a tighter or looser strikezone than average? Did TB just play really crappy teams those 6 times? Did TB have their ace on the mound for all 6 of those? Is this just a complete coincidence?

What if the Indians are 7-1 with Billy Bob behind the plate? Do you put money on both teams?

Trends LOOK amazing. But there are theoretically infinite trends, so for every 6-0 trend you throw at me I can do some research and throw an 0-6 one right back at you.

bigsmitty · 05-17-10, 02:32 PM

I tooK TB, pretty much along the lines of his general logic. I do look at the trends over the past 10 plus recent meetings but often the meetings are too scattered, etc to be valid. The boring stuff like overall off, def, era and pitch stats are my basic mystical magic

Plus guidance from delicate geniuses, haha. Cheers

The Inevitable · 05-17-10, 05:11 PM

I took Cleveland. The way TB has been playing is just terrible. In their last 4 games they've only scored 12 runs, that's 3 runs per game average. TB was the team of April, but in May they haven't been looking so good. However, that being said, they could still very well win this game. But Cleveland is +183, so I think it's worth risking.

The Inevitable · 05-17-10, 07:27 PM

It's 2-2, tied up now.

Still a lot of baseball to go, though.