Best value plays for Monday?

[Dukebluejms]

The key to being successful in gambling is finding the best odds for your money, so I was wondering what everyone else thought on the games today. I don't see too many value underdogs today, but my two that I do like are:

1. Boston +180
2. KC +121

Any time I see a team like the Red Sox at nearly 2 to 1, I look deep into that game because +180 seems like great odds even if they are playing in New York. As for the Royals lean, this has to do more with the fact that the Orioles have no business being this big of a favorite. Also, Davies has shown promise at some points this year.

I wanted to get everyone's thoughts on these leans, and get some insight into some other possible high value plays for the day. Another possibility I see, is Atlanta -1.5 (+150). I like them to torch the Mets tonight.

[metsfa89]

i agree with all of those. Boston is to scary with dicek on the mound for me but yea all of those plays are good value. i would take the royals as well.

[IrishTim]

Value doesn't always have to be an underdog. It is simply when a team's odds of winning exceed the odds they are given.

[Pluthero]

1. Boston - I think this is a great value pick, and I'm on it as well.
2. KC - You're right that Davies has shown promise, but Bergesen's gone a combined 14.3 innings his last two starts while only allowing 1 run. I pretty much agree with the line here.

My other value play is Cleveland +175.

[swaindexter]

Like the plays for today11 Good luck on your wagers.......

[bostonbruins]

Astros

[tzMoney]

I also like Cleveland today. Carmona (3.43 ERA) has found previous success pitching against the Rays holding their lineup to a .138 hitting average. http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=6356

Niemann (2.27 ERA) has pitched well this year. The Indians bats are always a crapshoot, but the 6 Indians players that have faced Niemann hit for .455 collectively in 11 total at bats.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=6243

The Rays are going to be focused on the upcoming series against the Yankees. This might just be a perfect storm to squeeze out a win for CLE.

[Dukebluejms]

Value doesn't always have to be an underdog. It is simply when a team's odds of winning exceed the odds they are given.

\

Oh I know, but this is just how I usually bet baseball.

[Wilforth]

Astros

Other value plays today, IMHO:

Blue Jays +106
Nationals FF +140 (fading Lohse)
Indians +180

[Dukebluejms]

I like Cleveland as well, and at 2 to 1 money I think it deserves a small wager. But I think if it came down to it, I'd play Boston over Cleveland. Honestly, I like the Braves RL the best of any of my plays listed.

[dolphan34]

I like the Royals a lot as well. Good call.

[landers781]

What do you guys think about the White Sox?

[No coincidences]

What do you guys think about the White Sox?

Both pitchers have been throwing better lately. Under is the play IMHO.

[jackpot269]

I took both of those but not Atlanta !!

[tzMoney]

Not big on Atlanta today. I think the Mets have a good rebound series after playing the Marlins. Pelfrey should have a decent outing.

[Dwell]

Sizemore out for the Tribe

[antifoil]

looks good guys thanks

[Donkwin47]

Tigers = value favorite.

[Dukebluejms]

What do you guys think about the White Sox?

Garcia has been pitching better as of late. This is a play I might consider. Aside from his one bad start in Toronto, Garcia has been pretty good. Not to mention the Tigers are just 3-6 in Porcello's last 9 starts...

[lincecum]

I like the Rockies today.

[Point Given]

I really like the Angels tonight at +149. Kazmir has a career ERA of 2.05 vs Texas while Hollands career ERA vs Angels is 5.26.

Hollands was pretty sharp in his first start but I think he will get rocked tonight. Texas did not play well in Toronto and had a long flight back home. I think +149 for the angels is way too high....

GL!

[Dukebluejms]

Not big on Atlanta today. I think the Mets have a good rebound series after playing the Marlins. Pelfrey should have a decent outing.

The Braves pretty much own the Mets in Atlanta, and I think they will be looking for revenge after the sweep in New York. Lowe has been bad, but he looked good in his last start and has been steadily improving. Pelfrey, on the other hand, has been regressing. After a great start, he has come back down to earth. The Mets are in a bad way right now, and I think it will continue. Here is what I see:

1. The Mets' offense is bad on the road, especially against RH starters (.216 team avg only 3.5 runs per game)
2. Their pitching has been bad on the road (starter's era over 6)
3. The Braves' offensive struggles have been well documented, but the majority of their struggles have come on the road and against left handed pitching (vs. righties they have a team batting avg of .276 and are scoring nearly 6 runs per game). They are loaded with lefties and they tend to feast on right handed hitting.
4. Pelfrey struggles with his control, and usually pitches his way out of games by the 6th. The Braves lead the majors in walks drawn, and have been doing better hitting with men on base.

[Chugs]

The Braves pretty much own the Mets in Atlanta, and I think they will be looking for revenge after the sweep in New York. Lowe has been bad, but he looked good in his last start and has been steadily improving. Pelfrey, on the other hand, has been regressing. After a great start, he has come back down to earth. The Mets are in a bad way right now, and I think it will continue. Here is what I see:

1. The Mets' offense is bad on the road, especially against RH starters (.216 team avg only 3.5 runs per game)
2. Their pitching has been bad on the road (starter's era over 6)
3. The Braves' offensive struggles have been well documented, but the majority of their struggles have come on the road and against left handed pitching (vs. righties they have a team batting avg of .276 and are scoring nearly 6 runs per game). They are loaded with lefties and they tend to feast on right handed hitting.
4. Pelfrey struggles with his control, and usually pitches his way out of games by the 6th. The Braves lead the majors in walks drawn, and have been doing better hitting with men on base.

Nice write up man ... may have to give it a shot.

[2daBank]

as much as it kills me to say it wash +145 against stl is really a solid value bet as stl is hitting like straight shit and fukkin Loshe is pitching, dont see much reason why the nats cant touch loshe up for some runs and him being -150 with the way we are swinging the bats is fukkin ridiculous....

[Grosshhit]

Sizemore out for the Tribe

so what. Sizemore has like a .215 BA

[Panekkkk]

I also like Cleveland today. Carmona (3.43 ERA) has found previous success pitching against the Rays holding their lineup to a .138 hitting average. http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=6356

Niemann (2.27 ERA) has pitched well this year. The Indians bats are always a crapshoot, but the 6 Indians players that have faced Niemann hit for .455 collectively in 11 total at bats.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=6243

The Rays are going to be focused on the upcoming series against the Yankees. This might just be a perfect storm to squeeze out a win for CLE.

Carmona's numbers are deceiving. His lifetime ERA vs. TB is over 7. His numbers look good on the surface because HE GOT PULLED IN BOTH HIS STARTS vs. TB in which he gave up a combined 9 RUNS in two starts. Most of the hits were attributed to his relievers which is why it looks like he has great numbers vs TB. No Sizemore tonight either.

[kidk]

i like these 2 picks 2

[baazigar]

i like the nats

[tzMoney]

Yo Duke - Good analysis -- after doing some more research I'm staying away from FLA v. ATL.

I like the Jays at home against the Twins, I also think that the over 9.5 is a great play. The Jays owned Slowey this year batting .500 in 44 AB's with 11 RBI's and 4 homers. Eveland hasn't been much better giving up a .292 on base percentage in his last start against the Twins.

[eatdust11]

Liking the Padres ML... Richard has been a beast at home