1k -> 10k (Day 3)

[Grind-It-Out]

Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $1,078.51
Goal Bankroll: $10,000
Days Remaining: 234

Required EV (as a % of bankroll): 0.956%
Kelly Multiplier: .22

Risk $26.96 to win $39.36 on Toronto +146
Risk $26.42 to win $11.01 on St. Louis -240
Risk $22.43 to win $20.58 on Chi. Cubs - 109
Risk $20.82 to win $17.21 on Tampa Bay -121

Going forward, the calculations will be slightly different. I will still be determining our required EV based on the compound interest formula. However, rather than taking the "optimum" bet and setting it equal to said EV, I will plug all qualified bets into Kelly and adjust the Kelly Multiplier such that the Kelly EV = Our EV. The only thing that changes now is that our EG becomes maximized with respect to our EV.

Good luck to all!

[dskibin2]

If the Rays can manage to break out of their mini slump they should grab a win. Niemann has looked very good

[Grind-It-Out]

If the Rays can manage to break out of their mini slump they should grab a win. Niemann has looked very good

They showed some fight at the end of last night's game, so hopefully that will carry over to today.

[Panekkkk]

Did u stop with the parlays? Or are you mixing it up?

[mvp123]

i hope tb can get a win tonite

[Grind-It-Out]

Did u stop with the parlays? Or are you mixing it up?

Did a lot of research on growth vs. value last night.

Optimal Kelly says that we should also be playing 11 parlays along with these straight bets, but those 11 parlays add up to a total risk of $3 and that just seems like a pain in the ass.

On days with only two or three straight bets, I may also include the parlays. But, if they are to risk less than $1, probably not.

[solobass]

Best of luck with the project!

[ebbearsfb1]

great stuff good luck, with my book i gotta play to the closest dollar so my numbers are a little different... how many of these do we have to win to be on pace?

[Grind-It-Out]

great stuff good luck, with my book i gotta play to the closest dollar so my numbers are a little different... how many of these do we have to win to be on pace?

Don't think about it in terms of having to win a certain amount of games each day. We will (most likely) NEVER win our expected value on a given day. We will either win far more money, or we will lose money. The idea of expected value is that it will prevail over long periods of time.

That being said, our bankroll "should" be $1,019.70 right now and it is $1,078.51, so we are already $58.81 ahead of schedule. If we go 2-2 today, we will remain ahead of schedule, but that's not the point.

[reverend]

interesting thread...gl going forward!

[Grind-It-Out]

thanks solobass and rev!

[Regul8er]

Way to hit yesterday parlay. I really like TB tonight, they piss on their old teammate.

[capri5421]

Love your system, good luck !

[madden]

Hey man, have you considered my mathematics going forward with the project modifications?
It actually involves Kelly, but I posted it slightly different

Hopes on!

[Grind-It-Out]

Hey man, have you considered my mathematics going forward with the project modifications?
It actually involves Kelly, but I posted it slightly different

Hopes on!

Although your method may or may not lead to more growth, mine is calculated to have the exact growth needed to obtain our goal.

[ebbearsfb1]

how exactly are you making your picks? like based off of

[Grind-It-Out]

combination software and "gut"

[alub15]

how exactly are you making your picks? like based off of

lemme get some of those points you got there